Thursday AM Briefing For ES Emini and MES Futures Trading Room

 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=y8u0rtPs200

Transcript:

"Welcome, Emini Trading Room Traders. Welcome to the AM briefing, preparing you to trade live in our E-mini Trading Room at microstrader.com. All right, good morning. For me, it's a second good morning because I happened to wake up just before the London session, and I said, 'Let's go trade.' And so, I went long at 5088. I'd love to say I was in this entire run, but I was not. In fact, I just got out of a short right here in my Leap account.

So, let's look at the chart. I'll tell you what; London is just amazing lately. It has been the session to trade. Look at this London session. This one, boy, London has been the session to trade lately. It's just been fantastic, in all honesty.

So, where do my eyes go on this chart? Well, the first thing that comes to mind is, 'Where are we?' Here, which is basically the London close, RT low, the overnight high. And then my eyes come way over here, and like, we didn't fill it. We didn't fill it.

What's the other thing we notice here? That we bumped against this daily trend line. We backtested it. In fact, over here, we left it. We backtested it. We backtested it again. And now we're in a multi-session. It's a big consolidation range. But you know, you could pull it into here and say multi-day consolidation range. NFP (Non-Farm Payroll), or as I affectionately call it, 'Not for professionals,' is trading tomorrow. So, that looks all interesting.

So, I took that long down here, and I wish I'd have held it the whole way, but it didn't happen. And then you look at this bull bear zone. Let's come in here to a three-minute chart real quick. This level here that I have drawn has just been fantastic. I mean, look at this, how this zone has played. Let's scoot it over a little bit. I mean, look at that. That's just so cool, right? And we bumped up against the bottom of this zone, so I'm keeping those strong lines on there. Let's go to a 30-minute chart for a second.

Now, one of the things I told my traders yesterday: if we get above this strong level here at 41, I wouldn't be shorting above there. I'd be careful with shorts above 41, is my advice. Okay, so let's do something.

Look back at NFPs. Interesting. Now we're going to go back in time. These two days here were the day before Non-Farm Payroll, and this was Nonfarm Payroll. So as a unit, let's look at those two days compared to the other days. Okay, that's interesting. Now let's go to January. In January, Non-Farm Payroll was on the 5th. So let's come into here. Let's go to the 5th and go, okay. So here's Thursday and Friday. Thursday and Friday. So the first one we looked at had a trend day. Then this is just what you would call complex slop and chop. Boy, look at that trend day on Monday.

All right, so let's go look at December now. And that would be December the 8th. December the 8th. So Thursday, the day before, horrible monster gap up and then keeps running. But look at this day, horrible slop and chop, doing nothing. This is what I expect today, to be honest. And then look at Non-Farm Payroll day. Does that look very fun to trade? Not in my humble opinion.

Let's go to November. November 3rd. Go day before Non-Farm Payroll. Nonfarm Payroll. Yeah, I'm just not sure. Let's see. Let's go to October. October would be on the 6th. Let's come down here. October 6th. Go Thursday, complex slop and chop. And then this Friday, if you could have been in early long, I mean, you know, long early, you did well. Once again, these two days added together far outweigh the other days. Does something not look like the others to remind me of my Sesame Street days?

And let's go to September 1st. Here's these two days. This is Thursday, Friday, complex chop. Complex chop. Interesting. Let's go to August 4th. Let's look at August 4th. Thursday, Friday. These two days together. See the expansion of range tomorrow. Not that you can't trade this. You just gotta be careful, and typically, the day before a large news event is just not the prettiest day to trade, alright?

Let's go look at July the 7th. Thursday, Friday. Now, I am on a 10-minute chart here, and as I'm looking at the 10-minute chart, I'm looking for entries on a 10-minute chart. Where do I look like I might have been able to be in a trade? And it's not looking that wonderful. We will be here trading it or watching it, studying it.

June 2nd. But I also know it's a beautiful time to either not trade or scale down. Here's Thursday, and then gap up into Friday. Once again, if you take these two as a unit, quite a two days.

Let's go to May now, and this would be on May the 5th. Let's come here, go back. May 5th. Thursday, gap up to Friday. Look at this. Thursday and here, looks like it would have run without me, and I would have been done. I'd have just exited the day like, 'Oh, I'm done. I'm not trading that,' and move on. And you have to expect that that is most likely going to happen. You're going to look at it and go, 'No.' And you can say no. You gotta say no to the chart. If you're going to be a successful long-term trader, you can't make the chart make you trade. You gotta go, 'No, I either get my piece, or I don't.' Nonfarm Payroll on the 7th.

Thursday, April 7th. Did I not do that right? April 7th. Thursday, Monday. Where's the Friday? Was the market closed that day? I don't know. That's very strange to me. All right, and last one. Let's go to March. Last March, March the 10th. Thursday. Boy, if you could have been in early on that, this is why we try to have runners in our system. Not try. It's part of our system. And then Nonfarm here. My goodness.

Okay, so I don't know what we glean from that, really, other than going back and just looking at it with a set of eyes. But realizing that these two days together far outweigh any of the other two days in combination month after month after month. So we are in for either an insanely boring day, like we've seen many Thursdays, where it's like this. Fridays are characterized by large candles. And, in fact, I want to go back. I want to look at yesterday. Let's go back and look at yesterday. And I'm going to turn on our large system keeping you safe candles. So, you see the red, that means they were 8-point candles or more. And our system, when we start getting 8-point candles, it's a sign that maybe you don't want to trade.

I recommend my traders wait for two new bounces to happen without another 8-point candle. So as soon as an 8-point candle happens, 8-point candle, you've got to wait for two new bounces. And when you get another 8-point candle, you've got to wait again. You've got to wait again, wait again, wait again, wait again, wait again, wait again. So our system kept you safe yesterday. It did not have you trading in this price action. It didn't have you trading there, and that kept you safe. It's okay not to have a no-trade day or a no-trade afternoon. I literally made a comment how fascinating to even just watch this. Out of nowhere, that started happening.

So, let's bring everything back. Let's see if London's done anything new since. Boy, look at that. Is that not just stunningly beautiful? Can I have my long back, please? All right, I'll see you guys on Zoom. Stay green, my friends. And to learn more about our group, go to microstrader.com."