Mon AM Briefing Preparing For Our Emini Trading Room 04/15/2024
TRANSCRIPT:
Welcome to the AM briefing video presented by micostrader.com, where together we trade better. Good morning, traders! Happy Tax Day, Monday, April 15th. So, what are we looking at today, boys? Geopolitical risk. Plus, I just have to note, it’s tax day. So, if you just wanted to know, Israel is 7 hours ahead of New York. So, as the session gets later, it gets darker in Israel, which increases the risk of something happening that can dramatically move the market. I will say, I believe traders overall were surprised at the opening. It didn’t gap up; it didn’t gap down. So, that was interesting. I was really excited to watch it, and then it was really a nothing event.
So, where are we? Well, we’ve started on this chart each day last week, I believe, where here’s the daily trend line, and then here is the more 30-minute trend line. And we talked about goes parabolic, buys it back, goes parabolic, buys it back, goes parabolic, buys it back. And now, we went parabolic again. Will they buy it back? That’s the question. What is the overnight session looking like? Yeah, that’s very interesting.
So, the game plan today is, well, number one, it’s Monday. Monday is the lowest probability day of the week for probably any system. But for our core strategy, it’s the lowest probability day of the week. And plus, with the geopolitical risk, is it Friday rules on Monday? Trade a little smaller. Don’t let yourself get hurt because news could come out at any moment that swings things one way or the other.
So, we are at a decision point on the chart. I feel like we are looking over the abyss of a monster drop, or are they going to buy it right back up? Well, they’ve done that for what, eight months now it seems like? And it is worth noting the risk of short covering is high. We are at a place of high polarity. I know it sounds so stupid to say we could go up or down, but I believe we could go up or down with a vengeance from here.
At the end of the day, in our group on Zoom, we trade trend and trade location. We trade the levels as they’re presented to us. So, today’s tip would be, I published a video this weekend showing the trades Wednesday through Friday, which was level 10 CPI trading. And I believe that’s a delightful video to look at. And in fact, I published two or three this weekend that I thought were worthy of your time.
And also, something that we talk about every day in our group, because risk is first, we are a risk-first group. Do not make things worse. We are at a level of high polarity. We could see a monster move out of nowhere. So, do not make things worse by adding to a losing position, by moving your stop loss. If you don’t like the price action, just don’t trade it. If you get into a trade and you don’t like how price is behaving, just exit. It’s no big deal. There’s another high probability trade around the corner.
And if today turns out to be one of those days that it’s just not that fun to trade, there are easier days. Now, let’s pull up the price map. Okay, so if you go to micrtrader.com and click on Price Map, this is the price map that will be finished being built out after this video. So, it is Monday, retail sales is here. And what’s the key level today? I don’t know. Okay, we’re on the brink of something pretty big on the geopolitical side. Earnings this week, this is put out by Earnings Whisper. Who reports before the opening, who reports after the close, each day this week looks like lots of financials on here. We got Netflix on here. So, if you’re interested in looking at this, it’s on the price map. I’ll throw my chart on here as it gets closer to the opening.
My last periodic update was last night, Sunday. Opening was nearly like an RTH session. It was really interesting. It was unusual. And in fact, I have a note down here that we had a reversal box last night. I put in the group, we’re going to get a reversal box, and it performed beautifully. I was not trading last night. I was not going to trade last night. Did not seem like a smart thing to do. So, I just watched in fascination.
Single prints to have on your chart, VPOC to have on your chart, and my current strong levels above current price. I did not provide any of the strong levels below current price. Those are for members. So, this week’s news drivers, we got the retail sales today, so we’re going to have a nice news driver one hour before the market opens. And then on Tuesday, Mr. Powell, Mr. Powell. So, be aware of that. Make sure that is on your chart. And have conviction in the process, not predictions. I do not know where price is going to go.
Just because last Friday, the key level I had up here was 51.57. Well, we opened up here. 51.57 was way down here. Just because I published a key level or any of the strong levels, I do not know if price is going there. The only thing we are pretty good at in our group, actually, we’re really good at it, is we draw a line on our chart, and price touches it and bounces. That’s what we’re good at.
I do not really know. I did not know at this time that we were coming here. If I did, I’d go full portfolio short. I just knew it was a key level the bulls wanted to hold. Why? We are in a bull market right now. So, that’s what’s most important. It is theirs to lose. What’s happened here in the overnight? Let’s drill down a little bit more.
So, I think it’s fairly evident that one could easily draw a trend line here, going okay, the play is long or flat. I’m certainly choosing flat at this time. We’ve already retraced 50% of the RTH session, represented by this white line. This is half back, which is half back. The overnight range was a very respectable 34 points. Typically, 20 is where we are at. If I was to trade this right now, the trade is long or flat. And if I was to counter trade, we haven’t broken anything to the south other than the reversal box at the beginning of the night. But once Asia opened, we are sloppily, and I use that word on purpose, this is sloppy movement upwards. But you cannot deny, that’s the trend. It doesn’t mean I have to go long. Flat is a trade. Flat is perfectly fine. And so, that’s what I would do here. I would just be flat.
Now, let’s go check everybody else out. So, we’re using this half back as our guide, because we’ve got the green session here, which is the RTH. And then, I’ll line up these half backs and get an idea, where is everybody at? INQ once again is stronger, my goodness. But basically, everyone is hugging their half back. Flatline, VWAP, flatline, VWAP, up, up. And we are still all under Friday’s opening. You can see INQ had a reaction off of Friday’s opening. So, we’ll see how this develops as we get closer to the market opening.
If you click here, it says Zoom, and now it says free stream. Well, let me just explain this. If you’re a prospective member, you can buy a Zoom pass, and you get to pick your day that you would like to pop on our live Zoom. I’m going to give you first-class treatment. I’m going to show you around. I’m going to explain things to you, and you’re going to be on the live Zoom, able to interact.
Now, the surface that I use to host our Core Strategy Academy, all the training, is called Circle. Part of the Circle platform is they have streaming. Now, at one time, I thought I was going to stream on that platform, but it turned out not to be the best, in my opinion. It’s more delayed than Zoom is. So, I just don’t like it. It’s lower quality. It’s not as sharp and crisp as Zoom. There’s a reason I pay for Zoom.
But I’m going to offer this option of free streaming on selected dates. So, what you want to do is you want to go ahead and just join, and that way, you are in that group. And what I’ll do is I will notify people on the AM briefing. I will also put it on the price map that, “Hey, today I’m to do a free stream.” It’s watch-only, and it’s slightly delayed and it’s not the same quality, but this is something I am testing. And in fact, if you go to, once you do that, you’ll get into the actual Core Strategy Academy, but you’ll only have access to the live stream. You’ll see it’s called live stream test group. In one month, I might decide I don’t like this, but I haven’t done it yet. So, I don’t know. If you’d like to be part of the experiment, click live stream and go. And if you just want to join us live, check out a Zoom pass. It’s a one-day pass, it’s 30 bucks. It’s always been 30 bucks, and you can try us out and see if you like the energy of the group.
I hope you stay safe today, and I’ll see my traders live on Zoom. Stay green, my friends. And to learn more about our group, go to microstrader.com.
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