Mon AM Briefing Preparing For Our Emini Trading Room 07/22/2024

Preparing ES & NQ Traders
For Our Emini and Micros Futures Trading Room

RESOURCES:
            ▶️ ES Price Map (Single Prints, VPOCS, News Drivers,...)

            ▶️Youtube Community Updates             ▶️ Website for ES MES Trading Room (Back Up)


TRANSCRIPT:

Good morning, Traders. Good morning! Happy Monday, July 22nd. What a week we have had, from assassination attempts to presidents being forced out! Amazing, amazing, amazing. But let's get to something more important: the Creator of the heavens and the Earth. "The desires of the lazy will kill them because their hands refuse to do anything." Did you do your weekend homework? Did you replay the charts? Did you go back and draw all your levels? Don't be lazy. Do the prep work to be ready to trade this week. Never ever trade until you have done your proper pre-flight. I recommend every weekend you have a set of homework. Personally, I go back and redraw every trade according to our basic core strategy and record them in a database. In fact, today I'm going to show you something about that. So, welcome to the AM briefing brought to you by Microstrader.com, where together we trade better. So, let's get into it. Tip of the day: Trading is not about the next trade; it's about the next 100 to 1,000 trades. Never let one trade hurt you. You're never going to look back on Monday, July 22nd at 9:37 a.m. and say, "That was the trade that I had to add to my loser, that I had to move my stop loss." No, no, no, no. It's not about that trade. That trade means nothing. It's about the next hundred to a thousand trades. Have a longer time frame. Don't get married to a trade. It means nothing. Price either bounced, or it didn't. There's another high-probability trade around the corner. Don't let one trade hurt you. News drivers: So, we've got a fresh week here. We have some PMI data early in the week and the larger PCE data near the end of the week. Next week is a whopper: FOMC and non-farm payroll. We'll be rolling out the Trap The Game Trader again next week, so join us live. So, where are we? Well, the risk of short covering is high. Last week was last week. Sell the rumor of Biden staying in, and this week, buy the news. The overnight futures are indicating that might be so. As we said, FOMC and non-farm payroll are next week. Last week, our basic core strategy was 14 winners, one flat-out loser, and three break-even trades. Now, on my website, I have this new dashboard. In fact, let's go look at that real quick. So, if you come to my website and go to Price Map, there are always several things on the price map. For example, this morning's video will be right here as soon as it's published. Every morning, 99% of the time, I'll put my morning chart right here as well. If I have a trade of the week, last week it was only a 10-pointer, but hey, I'll take it. Also, the current set of single prints and VPO that I would want to make sure are on your chart, a recap of this week's events, last week's results, and then I have this new dashboard. As soon as I update trades, these will be dynamically updated as well. For example, we've had 242 winners. These are my 2024 metrics since March 1st. I decided to track some additional, more detailed things, so I started over on our metrics. We've had 13 flat-out, no-questions-asked, in-your-face losers and 69 break-even trades. Here they are in a graphical formation: how they are by day, how they are by trend. I plan on building this out a little bit more. This is really for non-members to see how well we're doing. Now, one of the most important things is we count winners and break-evens as winners, okay? For some people, that is a new shift in mindset, that a break-even is a winner. No big deal; we'll wait for the next trade. So, if you add up our winners and break-evens, we're about 96%. That's a little high. I find when I'm firing on all cylinders, I'm about 92%. Now, I'm pretty aggressive on my gifts of break-even. It either bounced, or it didn't, as you'll hear me say on Zoom. We'll have this dashboard on here. I think I'll keep it here on the price map. I might create a new little menu over here called 2024 trades or something, I don't know. But for now, that's where it lives. So, let's get back to the slides here. Tomorrow, I'll be on YouTube live. If you'd like to check us out and think about possibly becoming a member, you can watch us live on YouTube tomorrow morning. If you like what we're doing, like, subscribe, and consider becoming a member, because we're really good at drawing lines where price bounces. Once again, seasonality: we are here on the final stretch of July. It looks like there's one more final push possible, plus it is an election year, and the political landscape just got a lot more interesting, didn't it? So, let's get to the chart. Last night, we drew this trend line on our chart. It's pretty obvious, and when we opened up, we went somewhat parabolic, did we not? And of course, price came back in; it filled this new week opening gap you have here, and we have established a new trend line. In fact, I would probably just come in here and adjust it to here, is where I would put it. Then it's pretty easy to say: have we gone parabolic? Should you counter a parabolic move? Should you be looking for a short here? The answer is no. If you're a member of mine, you got the new updated strong levels, and you're watching the AM briefing. Well, you always get access to a couple of them. I made the note here: care, short cover warning. Okay, I could have easily said careful with longs above, but we are in an environment where the risk of short covering is high, and the last thing you want to do is to short a short covering rally. I have the bull-bear line up here at 5606. If you're an SPX trader, on our strong levels, you can come in here on your SPX chart, you can click that you want the ES levels to be put on the SPX chart. I also put in what the price difference is here if you want to adjust that price difference between ES and SPX. You can do that there. So, these strong levels can now be on your SPX chart, which a lot of my option traders absolutely love. So, I do wish in hindsight I would have put an order right here at the fill of this new week opening gap. It would not have gotten me in though; it was a ticker too shy, but it just shows the power of those new week opening gaps. Once again, single prints and VIX are on the website under Price Map at microstrader.com. We've done a couple strong levels. Next week we know we get FOMC and non-farm payroll. This week, a little inflation data, so we'll keep an eye on that. But please know the risk of short covering is high. Both SPX and NQ hit a very critical level where price very likely could bounce. Now, on this push right here yesterday on Friday, I went long some SPY calls and some QQQ calls, so we will see how those turn out today. They're a little bit longer dated, but if I've got a nice embedded profit, I will take that profit most likely, or I will follow price action here on a higher time frame as far as protection layer. It's one of the things I'm going to be considering this morning as we open. So, remember, tomorrow we are live on YouTube if you'd like to join us. If you want to learn a high-probability system of trading, we have it here at microstrader.com. Check us out. You guys stay safe today. I'll see my traders live on Zoom here soon. Let me stop. I forgot to look at the indices. Where is everybody here? Well, leading up, kind of leading up, leading up, leading up, upward swing. VWS with three of us with good separation, three of us in the upper distribution. Once again, the risk of short covering is high. What's the game plan today? Knowing that we are above this level here and that we should not be looking for shorts, the game is longer flat. The bull-bears are in control till we get back up over this bull-bear line. So, would not be surprised to see us reach this area here, pull back in, and get some more buyers and charge away. I can't wait to trade. All right, guys, I will see you later. Green, my friends. To learn more about our group, go to microstrader.com.