Mon AM Briefing Preparing For Our Emini Trading Room 07/29/2024

Preparing ES & NQ Traders
For Our Emini and Micros Futures Trading Room

RESOURCES:
            ▶️ ES Price Map (Single Prints, VPOCS, News Drivers,...)

            ▶️Youtube Community Updates             ▶️ Website for ES MES Trading Room (Back Up)


TRANSCRIPT:

Good morning, everybody! Are you ready? When the first candle on Sunday night's an eight-point candle on a three-minute chart, you know you're in for it for the week. Wow, what a high-volatility week we had last week! And, uh, I expect nothing short of that this week. Today's quote truly has to do with my weekend. I have an 18-year-old daughter who thinks she's going on 30 and decided to challenge every family value we have. It was quite the weekend, my friends—raising teenage daughters is not for the faint of heart. Well, the thing I had to tell her took two days for me to calm down and get all the research needed. But I told her, "You are the prize." If you're a lady listening to this, a woman, let me tell you, you are the prize—not some guy who's got "game," which is absolutely disgusting. So know that you are God's masterpiece, and you are the prize. You should be treated like you are the prize—nothing short of that is acceptable. A real man will treat you like God's masterpiece. Alright, let's get into it. Welcome to the AM Briefing number 227, brought to you by microtrader.com, where truly, together, we trade better. If you're looking for a trading group that trades the ES and NQ charts mostly, check us out at microtrader.com. We trade futures, we trade options, and we trade options more based on high time frame levels, typically further out-dated options. We're not doing zero DTE stuff and gambling; we are much more measured than that, in my humble opinion. So, let's get into it. The tip of the day is going to relate to the new indicator that we have in the group today. Last week was certainly characterized by high volatility—80 candle land. The last time we were in a high volatility environment, I was working on an ATR stop loss. When that high volatility ended, I forgot about it until this week, so I adjusted it based on feedback from members, massaged it, and released it into your TradingView accounts this morning. So, what are the news drivers this week? First of all, this is a level 10 week—Wednesday FOMC, Friday Nonfarm Payroll. Green light, red light on when I think are probably okay days to trade and days to perhaps not trade—dial it way in or use the rule: small, wide stop, one loser, and you're done. I will only be trading my morning session, trying to save myself for Wednesday because it's fun to do Zoom in the AM and PM. So, if you're interested in our group and want a Zoom pass, Wednesday might be an interesting day because we'll Zoom in the morning and the afternoon. But level 10 trading this week—I never give that warning lightly. Be prepared. Is this a week to trade your cash account? Well, I only trade cash accounts, so that's something I'm going to have to question myself about. Should you be trading your funded accounts this week, or should you maybe focus on some evals or just paper trading? Certainly something to think about. Monday and Tuesday are tradable days. Tuesday afternoon is when it starts to not become tradable—the market is just waiting for FOMC. So, that's how I see the week shaping up. On the website at microtrader.com, I have the price map. There's an updated set of single prints and VPX for you. I do updates throughout the day. There will be a morning chart that I'll post as well. Anything I might want to update after the AM briefing is at my website, microtrader.com, on the price map. And, of course, tomorrow is YouTube Live, so if you want to be notified, please subscribe to the channel. I'm typically live 30 to 60 minutes before the opening, and you can trade with us live. Alright, let's get to the chart. We're going to start here and talk about where we're at with trend lines, then I'll discuss the stop loss indicator. So, this is our daily trend line that we've broken. I was really hoping on this day we'd get back there for a back test—I was chomping at the bit for that—but it didn't happen. So, we established this new trend line here, and then we bumped it out a little bit to here. I don't mind adapting it one time. Now we have this: we are stacking sessions—RTH, Asia, London, RTH, and this London here. Make sure all of these are marked on your chart. Then, let's go ahead and add this next trend line. Let me go to a 30-minute chart to be a little more exacting. I'll go from the low here and—oops, wrong thing—let's go from this low here and add it to here. I think this is where I want this trend line, and I want to know when we break it. I want to know when we come to this, because most likely, that's going to align with an area that's going to be difficult for it to get through. But if the price pops that, you want to know that information. Short covering could be immense from that area. On our strong levels, this trend line pretty much matches up with this strong range here. This doesn't mean short there; it's more like if you're long coming into it, you want to know this exists. Let's say you're long five contracts—maybe you take off three of them right there. If we get over that, be careful taking shorts. Now, if you weren't in a trade at all and the price just shot straight up to here, and you wanted to take a short on the front or the back or on the opposite side of that range, small, wide, okay, I get that. But right now, we are stacking sessions going north. This strong level here, this strong level here, and this strong level here—it opened up, shot straight up, took out the RTH liquidity, pulled back in. It's interesting; now it's trying it again. This is obviously a level that's very difficult for the price to get over. But if it gets over it, be careful. This is the next kind of pit stop. If we get over that, be careful countering, because right now we are certainly in an up move, and I think that deserves your respect. Now let's get into the indicator for my members. If you're not a member and want to pop off, good luck trading today, and I'll see you tomorrow. If you hit the slash key on your keyboard, it brings up the indicators. You can type in "stop loss," and your Micro Trader stop loss indicator will come up. Then a dialogue box will pop up. Choose your contract—right now, I have it set for ES and NQ. For your leverage metrics, what would be your stop loss per trade? Confirm that. If we're using the ATR stop loss, it's because we are in an 8-point environment, and this might be a tool that could potentially be beneficial. Now, for me personally, when we get into 8-point candle land, I know I'm trading one contract with a 10 to 20-point stop loss, and one loser means I'm done. But I love this concept because it's saying, "Okay, let's take into account volatility here and adjust our number of contracts based on that volatility." So, if you're in 8-point candle land, should you be trading with a 4-point stop loss? No, you shouldn't. We need to dial down the contracts, widen out the stop—why? Because volatility has widened. So, you can pick a stop loss multiplier here, and typically, traditional wisdom is 1.5 to 3. The higher the number, the wider your stop will be, and the fewer contracts, because the calculations are trying to stay within the max loss per trade that you would want to have. In a high-volatility environment, I'm not sure you want to use your $200 loss per trade, in my humble opinion. As volatility increases, maybe you go smaller. That's the first dial-down because if you're right, you can be really right. The price can go eight points in your direction in a heartbeat, right? So, you don't have to trade bigger. If anything, trading bigger in a higher-volatility environment certainly increases your risk as a trader. Let's hit apply. You'll see a couple of things on your chart here. First of all, I decided to put up just a small leverage metric right on your chart. This basically says if you're in an area and using a 3-point stop loss, you could trade 13 MES contracts based on the settings. If you're using a 10-point stop loss, you could trade four contracts based on your settings. It's just a quick leverage metric. If you want to turn off the leverage metrics, click that, and it'll disappear. To turn it back on, click it again. You can change the header color and dial it down a bit—whatever you want to do. You have some control there as well. These settings here deal with the leverage metrics—what's the max loss, and do you want to show the leverage metrics? I'm probably going to keep it up there as a reference. I usually keep my favorites toolbar in that area—no big deal, I'll just move the favorites toolbar if I want to check the leverage metrics. Your ATR settings here relate to this box. Once again, what's the multiplier? What's the loss you're willing to take? And, wow, one of the things is missing here. Why is that not on here? Hold on, you know, when you switch from computer to computer, sometimes... I don't understand why it's not giving me the most updated version. That is weird because there's also a take-profit—a 2:1 take-profit. I'd be curious if yours shows the 2:1 take-profit. Did I not update that version? So, there will be another checkbox here and here for where a 2:1 take-profit would be. You can turn those on or off as well. You can turn these dots on or off, and the labels will turn off. So, right now, the ATR is 2.0—the average true range on this 3-minute chart is 2 points. Based on the metrics you provided earlier—the 75 points—if you traded five contracts, you'd have a 3-point stop loss. So, this line here is the current price; there's your stop loss visually. If you were to take a trade here, and you said, "I'm just going to do one contract," this is just a reminder that for the $75, you could do one contract with a 15-point stop loss. So, it's just a little reminder that if you were to do one contract, the max you should be doing is five contracts with a 3-point stop loss. Does that make sense? I hope so. I need to find out why the indicator I loaded on my main computer isn't showing my take-profit. So, I have to go back to my laptop and make sure I've updated the most current version. Sorry about that, guys; I didn't realize it wasn't showing that. Let's take a quick peek at the indices. We're all in the upper distribution—we have a kind of disappointing look, with it inching up, but none of this is bearish. If I had to come in and trade right now, I wouldn't do a single thing. I'd come to a 10-minute chart, wait for another liquidity grab, and want to be in a better trade location. Looking at this higher up, there's constant rejection up here—how can you go long here? But how can you go short with it inching up? I need something new to happen, something new to develop, and then I will trade. Alright, guys, I'll see my traders live here soon, and YouTube, I'll see you tomorrow. You guys have a great day! See you, bye!