Thu AM Briefing Preparing For Our Emini Trading Room 07/11/2024
h1> Preparing ES & NQ Traders
For Our Emini and Micros Futures Trading Room
https://youtu.be/rzj0eMa8pB8
RESOURCES:
▶️ ES Price Map (Single Prints, VPOCS, News Drivers,...)
▶️Youtube Community Updates ▶️ Website for ES MES Trading Room (Back Up)
TRANSCRIPT:
Now it's time for America's favorite game show: Trap the Trader! Yes, now it's time for everyone's favorite category. Check it out: overleveraging, revenge trading, blowing your accounts. I just love resets and FOMO. And now, let's meet today's contestants: Johnny "I just have to trade every day" Johnson Bob "Happy to be here" Sam Steven "Never saw a short I didn't short" Malcolm Make Matters Worse Montgomery Rusty "Reset" Roberts Freddy "FOMO" Frederickson And of course, our returning champion, Patrick "Predict Price" Patterson. It's going up today, Bob! Remember, folks, it's all fun and games until the market opens. Until next time, don't become a victim of Trap the Trader. If you can't have a little fun, why are you doing this? Good morning, happy CPI day after a monster move yesterday. My goodness, my goodness. Alright, today, thou shalt not commit adultery. You know how adultery starts? Just by having a conversation, a look, a brush, by being in the vicinity. The number one thing that causes relationships to start is proximity, how close you are to somebody. You're a married man, a taken man, guard yourself jealously. Don't even start down the road, don't even have the thoughts, don't allow the thoughts. A few moments of passion can ruin your entire life. Just say no, walk away. There's nothing more majestic than an intimate relationship with your wife. Treasure it, treasure it, treasure it, and allow nothing to hurt your family. Alright, guys, let's get on it, let's get on it. Welcome to the AM briefing, brought to you by micrtrader.com, where together we trade better. Episode number 25, let's get into it. So, news drivers today: CPI monster candle day. We will be live in our group for that candle and the trade plan today. Know that we are in rare territory. This move that we have been experiencing is just, wow, a sort of thing you may not see again for years. It's just been an incredible move, and today we are opening up in the upper distribution of that monster move up the day before CPI. So, up, consolidation, up, consolidation, up, consolidation. You are in a... Not to mention that yesterday was like the lowest volume on SPY in something like 15 years. That's according to Paul Osmer, a market profile guy that I listen to. If you are interested in learning more about market profile, look up Paul for sure. In fact, he's probably, I probably link to his channel in the description. So, just, we're in rare, weird territory. It's July with a monster seasonal tendency up, plus an election year. Guys, just watch today. For the love of price action, if you're going to trade, trade small. And I'm going to say it again, if at all you take one loss, you quit. Okay, this is not a day to be a victim of Trap the Trader. So, tip of the day is going to relate to our next slide. Know when things have changed. What is the only thing you really need? You only really need the candles, you need the structure, what we teach in boot camp. But using that in conjunction with trend lines helps visualize trends. Let's go to the next slide because I want to dive just a little deeper. Oh, seasonality is next. So, big monster move there. And here we go. So, yesterday we traded live in the morning, okay, we do that. We did very well. We were shorting the first part of the morning and then looking for longs after that, and then it stayed out of the way. Okay, so we trade live in the morning, and then for the rest of the time I am typically making posts throughout the day. And I just want to walk you through that. Even if you're a member, this is worthy of looking at and making sure that you're staying in touch with the trading floor throughout the day to help just do a temperature check. How are you seeing the price action compared to perhaps my commentary that might provide some value to you? So, yesterday at 11:02, I made this. We called shorts on the way down and longs on the way up, and perhaps more importantly, not to short the bottom. Especially for the new guys, I was telling them right here, your instinct is probably telling you, I want to go short. But by our system, as I was calling it out, you don't short right here. The setup is not happening. That's a warning flag. It's a major warning flag. Do not short here. When you learn our system, the first thing you have to do is fight your instincts, and then you will intellectually prove to yourself that your instincts are wrong. And then you have to learn to trust the mental brain power that you have, because it's in conflict with your instincts. I can promise you that. My attention now turns to the 65 to 75 range. We drew that out in the morning of where I expected price to go to the north, and that's where I was going to keep an eye on it. One thing a trader needs to be good at is seeing the turn, which was this morning's tip of the day. Not getting stubborn because you want it to go down. Eyes on trend line plus break level in that 65 to 75 region, reiterating that 10 more points north. Eyeballs watching the 65 to 75 as stated above. Lots of lessons built in today's price action. Will it break the parabolic move? So, number one, I'm telling you, we are in a parabolic move. What's one of our rules? We do not counter a parabolic move. And then I'm showing you, hey, look at all the indices here. It's coming into the 70s. You know, you want 75, maybe even 80. And then our number one saying in our group, trends are hard to break. Trends are hard to break. I want 80. Repeat after me, class, trends are hard to break. And then I asked one of my new traders in the group, I said, what do you think about what you're witnessing? And he gave a comment. I went, no, no, I'm kind of talking about the clarity of the chart, seeing price action in real time. It's super easy to do on YouTube after the day, but doing it live is different. And he said, yeah, it's insane. So, I appreciate that. So, once we broke that 80 and we did this move up here, I took a small SPY vertical put play for today. It's my CPI lotto. Probably will be a full loser, but I think it's well placed, and we shall see. Then, to cap the day off, I threw out a challenge to the members, and the first person to post nailed it exactly, which is great. Challenge: tell me the exact price that changed, that things changed when, where did the change occur, where it changed to no more shorts. By the way, this is one of the challenges in the new trader games that is coming to our group. I could easily make today that challenge. Hint: go play challenge 2. Then I gave them the link again to our trader game, which is a simulation, a simulation game I developed to reinforce core principles of our system. There is an exact price yesterday where things changed, and then you have to get on sides. You have to be on the train or you remove yourself from the chart if you're too tempted to trade. Otherwise, watch the trading. It's okay because for the love of price action, it is worth doing. So, that's a snapshot there. Oh yeah, and then I finished with one trend line can be powerful. Because if I back up here a second, hold up, I'm going to back up just one second if you'll be patient with one, two. This one early on, throw on that trend line, and boy, it honored that trend line for the rest of the day. So, don't be afraid to utilize trend lines with our price structure that we use and our core strategy. It is worth the effort because one trend line can be powerful. Now, let's get to the chart. And to be honest, there is not a whole lot to say here except we are in rare territory as far as what price action has been doing. Yesterday, monster move, and now we're just consolidating up here in the upper distribution. There are no bears, okay? Now, what I did yesterday, what I was eyeing... Let me bring back my levels here, let me turn that off. I was eyeing this large trend line. We talked about this earlier in the week, where you had this daily trend line, and then we went parabolic. We broke it by time, and I said, I'm going to keep this line on my chart for when we backtest it. And that's what we did. And that was my target yesterday. And depending on what time it was, the target was lower. So, 65 to 75 was earlier. As time went on, it came up here to this 80 to 85 area, and we overshot it a little bit. Not shocking, to 90. So, there was the backtest of that trend line that I was targeting all morning. You can try to counter me when I give out targets like that, but the phrase "trends are hard to break" is so true that it is worthy of paying attention to, because price is attracted to certain locations on the chart. That doesn't mean you just go long to get there. I told one trader yesterday, I don't like to go long after the fourth ladder. I'm out. If I missed it, I missed it. Move on, and I'm going to wait until we are in a different section of the chart. Give it two to four hours to make its move, and then let's look at it again and see if I'm offered something perhaps the other direction. That did not happen yesterday. No big deal, no big deal. But I did take that put play literally on this side of the trend line. I felt it was a good location to take a small put vertical. Okay, so it's small risk, small reward, and it was in the money. By the way, why do I do it in the money? Because it's a higher probability trade. I'd rather make smaller with a high probability than larger with a low probability. That's just the way I see things. Your mileage may vary. So, we will be live for the CPI candle, guys. And if you're interested in joining a group of ES and NQ traders with a very solid system, check us out at micrtrader.com. I wish you good luck today. Stay safe, green my friends. And to learn more about our group, go to microstrader.com.
For Our Emini and Micros Futures Trading Room
▶️ ES Price Map (Single Prints, VPOCS, News Drivers,...)
▶️Youtube Community Updates ▶️ Website for ES MES Trading Room (Back Up)
TRANSCRIPT:
Now it's time for America's favorite game show: Trap the Trader! Yes, now it's time for everyone's favorite category. Check it out: overleveraging, revenge trading, blowing your accounts. I just love resets and FOMO. And now, let's meet today's contestants: Johnny "I just have to trade every day" Johnson Bob "Happy to be here" Sam Steven "Never saw a short I didn't short" Malcolm Make Matters Worse Montgomery Rusty "Reset" Roberts Freddy "FOMO" Frederickson And of course, our returning champion, Patrick "Predict Price" Patterson. It's going up today, Bob! Remember, folks, it's all fun and games until the market opens. Until next time, don't become a victim of Trap the Trader. If you can't have a little fun, why are you doing this? Good morning, happy CPI day after a monster move yesterday. My goodness, my goodness. Alright, today, thou shalt not commit adultery. You know how adultery starts? Just by having a conversation, a look, a brush, by being in the vicinity. The number one thing that causes relationships to start is proximity, how close you are to somebody. You're a married man, a taken man, guard yourself jealously. Don't even start down the road, don't even have the thoughts, don't allow the thoughts. A few moments of passion can ruin your entire life. Just say no, walk away. There's nothing more majestic than an intimate relationship with your wife. Treasure it, treasure it, treasure it, and allow nothing to hurt your family. Alright, guys, let's get on it, let's get on it. Welcome to the AM briefing, brought to you by micrtrader.com, where together we trade better. Episode number 25, let's get into it. So, news drivers today: CPI monster candle day. We will be live in our group for that candle and the trade plan today. Know that we are in rare territory. This move that we have been experiencing is just, wow, a sort of thing you may not see again for years. It's just been an incredible move, and today we are opening up in the upper distribution of that monster move up the day before CPI. So, up, consolidation, up, consolidation, up, consolidation. You are in a... Not to mention that yesterday was like the lowest volume on SPY in something like 15 years. That's according to Paul Osmer, a market profile guy that I listen to. If you are interested in learning more about market profile, look up Paul for sure. In fact, he's probably, I probably link to his channel in the description. So, just, we're in rare, weird territory. It's July with a monster seasonal tendency up, plus an election year. Guys, just watch today. For the love of price action, if you're going to trade, trade small. And I'm going to say it again, if at all you take one loss, you quit. Okay, this is not a day to be a victim of Trap the Trader. So, tip of the day is going to relate to our next slide. Know when things have changed. What is the only thing you really need? You only really need the candles, you need the structure, what we teach in boot camp. But using that in conjunction with trend lines helps visualize trends. Let's go to the next slide because I want to dive just a little deeper. Oh, seasonality is next. So, big monster move there. And here we go. So, yesterday we traded live in the morning, okay, we do that. We did very well. We were shorting the first part of the morning and then looking for longs after that, and then it stayed out of the way. Okay, so we trade live in the morning, and then for the rest of the time I am typically making posts throughout the day. And I just want to walk you through that. Even if you're a member, this is worthy of looking at and making sure that you're staying in touch with the trading floor throughout the day to help just do a temperature check. How are you seeing the price action compared to perhaps my commentary that might provide some value to you? So, yesterday at 11:02, I made this. We called shorts on the way down and longs on the way up, and perhaps more importantly, not to short the bottom. Especially for the new guys, I was telling them right here, your instinct is probably telling you, I want to go short. But by our system, as I was calling it out, you don't short right here. The setup is not happening. That's a warning flag. It's a major warning flag. Do not short here. When you learn our system, the first thing you have to do is fight your instincts, and then you will intellectually prove to yourself that your instincts are wrong. And then you have to learn to trust the mental brain power that you have, because it's in conflict with your instincts. I can promise you that. My attention now turns to the 65 to 75 range. We drew that out in the morning of where I expected price to go to the north, and that's where I was going to keep an eye on it. One thing a trader needs to be good at is seeing the turn, which was this morning's tip of the day. Not getting stubborn because you want it to go down. Eyes on trend line plus break level in that 65 to 75 region, reiterating that 10 more points north. Eyeballs watching the 65 to 75 as stated above. Lots of lessons built in today's price action. Will it break the parabolic move? So, number one, I'm telling you, we are in a parabolic move. What's one of our rules? We do not counter a parabolic move. And then I'm showing you, hey, look at all the indices here. It's coming into the 70s. You know, you want 75, maybe even 80. And then our number one saying in our group, trends are hard to break. Trends are hard to break. I want 80. Repeat after me, class, trends are hard to break. And then I asked one of my new traders in the group, I said, what do you think about what you're witnessing? And he gave a comment. I went, no, no, I'm kind of talking about the clarity of the chart, seeing price action in real time. It's super easy to do on YouTube after the day, but doing it live is different. And he said, yeah, it's insane. So, I appreciate that. So, once we broke that 80 and we did this move up here, I took a small SPY vertical put play for today. It's my CPI lotto. Probably will be a full loser, but I think it's well placed, and we shall see. Then, to cap the day off, I threw out a challenge to the members, and the first person to post nailed it exactly, which is great. Challenge: tell me the exact price that changed, that things changed when, where did the change occur, where it changed to no more shorts. By the way, this is one of the challenges in the new trader games that is coming to our group. I could easily make today that challenge. Hint: go play challenge 2. Then I gave them the link again to our trader game, which is a simulation, a simulation game I developed to reinforce core principles of our system. There is an exact price yesterday where things changed, and then you have to get on sides. You have to be on the train or you remove yourself from the chart if you're too tempted to trade. Otherwise, watch the trading. It's okay because for the love of price action, it is worth doing. So, that's a snapshot there. Oh yeah, and then I finished with one trend line can be powerful. Because if I back up here a second, hold up, I'm going to back up just one second if you'll be patient with one, two. This one early on, throw on that trend line, and boy, it honored that trend line for the rest of the day. So, don't be afraid to utilize trend lines with our price structure that we use and our core strategy. It is worth the effort because one trend line can be powerful. Now, let's get to the chart. And to be honest, there is not a whole lot to say here except we are in rare territory as far as what price action has been doing. Yesterday, monster move, and now we're just consolidating up here in the upper distribution. There are no bears, okay? Now, what I did yesterday, what I was eyeing... Let me bring back my levels here, let me turn that off. I was eyeing this large trend line. We talked about this earlier in the week, where you had this daily trend line, and then we went parabolic. We broke it by time, and I said, I'm going to keep this line on my chart for when we backtest it. And that's what we did. And that was my target yesterday. And depending on what time it was, the target was lower. So, 65 to 75 was earlier. As time went on, it came up here to this 80 to 85 area, and we overshot it a little bit. Not shocking, to 90. So, there was the backtest of that trend line that I was targeting all morning. You can try to counter me when I give out targets like that, but the phrase "trends are hard to break" is so true that it is worthy of paying attention to, because price is attracted to certain locations on the chart. That doesn't mean you just go long to get there. I told one trader yesterday, I don't like to go long after the fourth ladder. I'm out. If I missed it, I missed it. Move on, and I'm going to wait until we are in a different section of the chart. Give it two to four hours to make its move, and then let's look at it again and see if I'm offered something perhaps the other direction. That did not happen yesterday. No big deal, no big deal. But I did take that put play literally on this side of the trend line. I felt it was a good location to take a small put vertical. Okay, so it's small risk, small reward, and it was in the money. By the way, why do I do it in the money? Because it's a higher probability trade. I'd rather make smaller with a high probability than larger with a low probability. That's just the way I see things. Your mileage may vary. So, we will be live for the CPI candle, guys. And if you're interested in joining a group of ES and NQ traders with a very solid system, check us out at micrtrader.com. I wish you good luck today. Stay safe, green my friends. And to learn more about our group, go to microstrader.com.
Comments
Post a Comment