Wed AM Briefing Preparing For Our Emini Trading Room 07/24/2024

Preparing ES & NQ Traders
For Our Emini and Micros Futures Trading Room

RESOURCES:
            ▶️ ES Price Map (Single Prints, VPOCS, News Drivers,...)

            ▶️Youtube Community Updates             ▶️ Website for ES MES Trading Room (Back Up)


TRANSCRIPT:

"Good morning, everybody! Welcome to the AM briefing by MicrosTrader.com. We're together; we trade better. Today's quote: 'The Lord will fight for you; you need only be still.' I love that quote. Sometimes you do have to be still; the Lord will fight for you. You only need to be still, be patient, and wait. Does that sound like trading? You only need to be still. You don't have to trade every day. Heck, I took zero trades yesterday, except for getting out of my Amazon option, which made my day. Be still, wait—no level, no trade. Period. All right, let's get into it. Sorry, I pushed the wrong button; I was like, 'Why aren't you advancing?' So actually, I want to come to... let me switch something here... you're kidding me, for some reason, it went to the wrong thing, and I apologize. Because I record this live, I don't have the option to go back and edit this easily. So let's look at these slides. Welcome to the AM briefing number 224, if I remember correctly—yep, 224. So let's get going. Tip of the day: it almost relates to our quote. There is not a trade every day, I promise. We are in uncertainty, so level 10 trading it is—a day trader's delight if you can get levels. But, no level, no trade. Period. Make that your mantra. Today, we've got flash PMI and new home sales 15 minutes and 30 minutes after the opening. And of course, eyeballs are on PCE, FOMC, non-farm payroll next week, and Tesla and Google had their earnings last night, which sent the market lower, which I promised to look at. So now, let's actually get to the chart. I think this is going to start being my format because I don't think I'm reviewing yesterday as well as I should. I don't do wrap-up videos every day; a lot of times, I'm just too exhausted to bring quality content. So I'm going to start marking up my chart. Yesterday was great because we did YouTube Live, and I'm going to review what happened. If you want to verify it, go watch it. Would this help you be a better trader? First of all, I just want to point out this bull-bear line. For the last couple of days, we've been hitting our heads against it in this direction, and then yesterday, we were hitting our heads against it in the opposite direction. This certainly turned out to be a bull-bear line, in my humble opinion. On YouTube Live yesterday, we're talking about how I'm not trusting this up move. One of the people on YouTube asked why I wasn't trusting this up move, and he asked once we dropped down here because he went, 'Holy cow, I guess he was right.' Well, we weren't creating levels according to our basic core strategy that bounced the price north. It was just the ugliest move up, and I'm just saying on Zoom, 'I'm not trusting this. I'm not trusting this.' I did tell the group that they could go long here at 19 if they wanted to, but I was not choosing that. The play was long or flat, and I was choosing flat. I was not specifically looking for a short, although I did have a level much higher that I said if we got there, I would take it, depending on how we got there. But I was not loving this up move; we weren't creating the levels I thought needed to be created. But I did give out this long, saying if people wanted to go long, they could take that long. Then I called out this short here as well. I actually gave a range in which you could take that short, targeting the IB low. We did not actually make the IB low, but this turned out to be a beautiful trade for the people who took it. And then, at this point on the chart, when we were here, I was mapping out what would be my long and what would be my short. The short would only happen now that we broke the bull-bear line. I told the group the short is over now; it's over. If you didn't take it, you missed it. We now need to see what price wants to do. And the fact we didn't take out this IB low and other factors at this point right here, I was done with my morning. I said, 'Don't short this,' and boy, did ES run right back up and take out the IB high. Absolutely amazing. And then, this just horrible price action here—this is the same ugly price action as before. Then you get a drop, then we spend three hours in a 13-point range, and finally take out the IB low at the end of the day. I'm glad I only traded the morning. You see, my job on Zoom and on Discord in the afternoon is to be your ES tour guide. I'm trying to point out, 'Okay, we're going to stop here on our journey, get out, grab your camera, and take a picture. You might want to use this lens, set your settings this way, and point your camera in that direction.' And that's basically what I'm doing when I'm pointing out these things. I am not a trade call-out service, but I do offer my analysis and where trades might exist if you want to take them. Every trade is on you. I'm certainly not a financial advisor, but I'm pretty darn good at being a good ES tour guide. If you think that type of analysis in real time would help you, check us out at MicrTrader. Okay, so now let's get caught up to speed. Oh, there was one more thing I wanted to say in relation to this. On this line... oh, did I delete it? No, I didn't. Here you go. So this line here, I said, 'Be careful with longs below,' and that has turned out to be pretty good advice. Now, I had that in the morning yesterday because I don't know which way this thing's going to go, but I do want to be a good tour guide and put out caution with longs below. We were up here when we opened, but my note was down here. I can't predict that the price is going to gap down 20 points and then start sliding down, but I knew that if we get underneath this, you want to be careful with longs. And that is actually still going to be my note going into the trading day this morning as well. I did not update the strong indicator to change these words, but if I were to change the words yesterday morning, it would have said, 'Be careful with longs below.' So, I just added that note. So, what did we do? We gapped down, and we are obviously sliding down. We also did something else on this wick right here—we filled the new week opening gap on Sunday. So, we filled that gap. If I had been awake, I would have certainly been interested in these longs right here. Now, because it did a double tap, I probably wouldn't have been in the full move; it would have been a little profit, but it's fine—no big deal. There's another high-probability trade around the corner, right? So, certainly, you want to denote this gap. Okay, so I'm going to put that on my chart. I'm going to dial down some of that opacity. Let's come in here and dial down some of this opacity. I'm going to make the lines actually kind of gray, and I want to denote that gap. Turn on your magnet tool, and let's kind of make sure that we've got that... beautiful. The only reason I'm using this rectangle tool is because I also want to know where half the distance is. So, that's going to be on my chart as the gap down. Now, at this very moment, if we were trading, what is the trade? It is short or flat. So, I would throw on this little trend line here at this time. Let's take a peek at it. Again, let's come in here to a 10-minute chart just to tighten this up a little bit, maybe adapt this out... come on, I want this point... there we go, maybe we adapt this out to here—it's fine. Once again, trend lines don't represent trades, but they do help you with direction. Okay, because right now, the play is short or flat. That said, we did hit a major spot, which is this new week opening gap down here, and now we're having evidence of laddering up. So, now we would want to break this trend line, and if we get back up over this strong level, of course, what would be the beautiful target? The gap fill. So, if we can break this with a vengeance and get up over this strong level, which is at 68.50, and ladder over that, I would probably be interested in a long, fully expecting it to be a complete loser—which you have to do with every trade. You can always enter a trade with one contract; you don't have to go full boat. It's like over here in this up move—you are not getting beautiful level development. If you decide to take any long, you should be doing it small. It's not clear, clean, crisp, and obvious in your face levels—don't take it. It needs to be so obvious that it would have been an example I used in boot camp. Okay, so do it that way. So, okay, let's go look at the indices while we are here. So, halfbacks from yesterday—once again, Russell is not playing with this down move; the small caps are strong. Three of us are below, three of us have downward-sloping VWAPs, three of us are under those VWAPs, and we are laddering down. So, once again, if you were to plop on the chart and trade right now, the play is short or flat until we do exactly what I described here to know that things have changed. So, what's the game plan today? Well, like everything else, I'm waiting for clean, clear, crisp levels. I want to confirm trend or chop—it doesn't really matter as long as I get the levels, I can take the trade. And we're going to be cognizant of trade location. I believe the overnight low is going to be critically important for our trading today. Why do I think that? Because that puts us under the new week opening gap, and I think that would definitely represent a change of tone. If you'd like to trade with us live, check us out at MicrTrader.com, and I hope you have a safe trading day. Green, my friends! And to learn more about our group, go to microstrader.com."