Fri AM Briefing Preparing For Our Emini Trading Room 08/16/2024
Preparing ES & NQ Traders
For Our Emini and Micros Futures Trading Room
LINK: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0Uj5PeIuw4s
For Our Emini and Micros Futures Trading Room
TRANSCRIPT:
Good morning, everybody. Good morning, good morning! Let's get into it. God is able to do far more abundantly beyond what we ask or can think. It's always worth asking God for what you need, praying for yourself, your family, and your country, so He can do far more beyond anything we can ask or think. I think that's a really powerful statement. That's from Ephesians, one of the chapters I'm studying line by line.
Alright, guys, let's get into it. Welcome to the AM briefing number 241, brought to you by microtrader.com, where together we trade better. So, I did update the centrals indicator last night. I'm really excited about this update. We rolled over to the 5.0 update. It has gone through some iterations, and basically, what it does is it allows us to see not only where the other indices are in relation to their high, low, and halfback of yesterday, but now it's going to tell us whether or not they're above or below their VWAP. I'll show you that when we get on the chart.
I had to rework the watchlist a little bit to make it work because I have maxed out the number of requests that TradingView allows on a single indicator. Tip of the day: When I announce it's a level 10 day, I do not do that lightly. I don't want it to be a level 10 day, but that's the day, in my opinion, you scale it down. You can still do your full daily loss limit if you want, or you could do half, or you could say, "One loser and I'm done," or whatever my leverage metric says—I'm cutting that in half. I just recommend you scale it down. Don't allow a level 10 day to hurt you because there are too many non-level 10 days that make trading much easier.
Well, today's OPEX Friday. Welcome to Super Squirrel—this is his land, this is his day. If you're going to try to just get a nut, be careful because Super Squirrel controls everything that happens today. It's going to be super squirrely today, and so Super Squirrel is on duty. So be careful, it is OPEX Friday, and it will be squirrely. You want to make your money early and then just get out.
A couple of news drivers today: Most notably, half an hour after the opening, consumer sentiment and inflation expectations. So, let's get to the chart and let's review yesterday. I'm going to actually move this up a little bit.
Okay, so first of all, let's talk about the update. At this very moment, right here—this is great—you see the orange here? The orange means these guys are below their VWAP. The green means they're above their VWAP. At this very moment in time, in fact, let's slide over here. See you, I know when I woke up. Let's put you here. I just want to see—at this point in time, oh, they were all under. Well, there it was. It was cool because here, at a point in time, two were above and two were below. I just like that update on the indicator. Once again, these three are above, this one's under. So, green means they're above, orange means they're under. So, let's get rid of that.
I also reworked this indicator to free up some requests so I could make this possible, and I just made all of these texts because those are the ones we watch, and of course, this is customizable in your settings. I'm going to do a video this weekend that goes over each of the indicators, just to give everybody a refresher and new members an introduction. If you've been a member for a while, you've seen all the iterations and you know what each one does, but if you're brand new like "R" was yesterday, he's not, so I'm putting a video together.
Yesterday, we knew that the jobs and retail sales were going to have a bigger reaction than CPI, and it certainly did. This was the trade to be in here because what this did was take out the initial overnight low by like two ticks, and then came back in and then went straight up. So yeah, that was the trade. Then the next trade was this one, where it took the very first tip of the liquidity to go long, but it only did it by like a tick. I wasn't ready for that action, especially after a 15-point candle down. A 15-handle down—I'm thinking, okay, this thing is going to try to take back some of this, and it didn't. The bulls are in control. The bulls own this thing; there are no sellers. The play was long or flat all day long, and somewhere in here, I closed my DOM. I went, "I'm out, I'm done. I don't like the personality of this price action." It's like when you're dating—there are some girls you just don't get along with, or some guys you just don't get along with, and then there are some you get along with just fine, and you're like, "Okay, we can do this for a while," and then you meet the one—that's the chart I want to trade. I want to trade the one that is so close to the one that it's crazy. This is not the one for me.
These monster gap-ups—first of all, trading monster gap-ups are hard, and then it's just this slow, ugly, ugly grind. What are these green dots? It's nothing more than in the Essentials indicator. I turned on "show me where all the dots are," and you see they're all green. When it's green here—I'm going to slide this over here—when it's green, your indicator is going to tell you a few things. Number one, it's going to give you an up arrow. See that up arrow? That means if you're trading, try to stay long, protect your profit. What is this telling us? Everyone is above yesterday's high, and now this indicator will tell you everyone's above their VWAP. Is this the type of price action you're excited to short when the next RTH high is up here at 5600? In fact, you see this little green dot here? That was last week's high. Now, if you want to make that green dot horizontal, what you do is you come in here and, last week's high—you can make that horizontal. So that's last week's high there, and it certainly seems like that would be the ideal target for the week—to take out last week's high. Do you want to be shorting in front of that? You can, but boy, does it make trading difficult. You'll hate trading, and you'll wonder why you are trading because you're fighting the trend. Who is smarter: the trend or you? I would bet on the trend because I am. That's what I would do—trend and our trade.
Now, we had a top one beautiful trade on here. I'm not going to discuss it on YouTube, but I encourage you, if you're in my group, to please go to the trading floor, go back and look at the commentary yesterday. I discuss that trade in the trend. It is certainly some secret sauce in our group, and if I was trading all day, I would have taken that, and I called it out while it was happening. I don't know if anyone took it; hopefully, nobody was even trading, but a few of us were commenting. So it was long or flat all day long, no questions asked, but I just do not like this little slow freight train move. There's no level development in there, there's no level separation in there—I'm just not excited to trade that, no thank you.
I want you to notice something. When I had it here at the body—yeah, when I went from the wick to the body to make it the most steep possible, look how we just tap-danced along that line and eventually time took it out. Okay, and then when time took it out, I adjusted it to the wick, and that's where we're at now. And then, of course, time, and then we tap-danced. My goodness, then we tap-danced all along here, so I can remove that now. That's over with. We went sideways basically the whole night. Now, in this area of the chart, I was short. Once again, go to the trading floor, scroll up a little bit. I posted each entry, why I took the entries, and why I added to my trade in that sequence. So, if you're interested in dialing that in and looking at what I did, feel free to do so.
So let's go to a 10-minute chart to kind of zoom this thing in, and I'm going to remove that, I don't need that. So, RTH high, we made a new high, then we made a new high. Remember, to me, the ultimate goal up here is 5600, where that weekly high is. In fact, let me just do this—instead of turning that on, let me turn on my session levels. Okay, right here—that is, to me, the goal. It would be surprising if we don't get there today, and then hug out and hang there and close there. What do I know? We might finally take this thing down, but I doubt it. So make sure you put this afternoon's halfback on your chart. To me, this is the bull/bear line today—this is where things have the greatest opportunity to have a change in tone, in my humble opinion. In fact, we had the bull/bear line down here, never even got close to it—the bulls were in control. So let's put the bull here because that's where I would want to have that to mark this IB low that we had earlier in the day, where it took it out by a wick and then went up, and then I would also denote this little wick thing down here—I don't even know what to call it, but put it there as well. This will be a little bit of a zone; if we get underneath here, things could get exciting—could get really exciting.
So once again, this IB high up here at 6.75 is, to me, the most obvious upside target, and I wouldn't be surprised if we came in, we came to the afternoon pullback, laddered back up, and went and took out the weekly high. It will be fun to see, and then if we take out the weekly high, you have to be on alert for this thing pulling back in Friday afternoon. I forget what it's called—ICT has a little name for the afternoon pullback, where it comes back 20-30% of the weekly range. So maybe we'll keep an eye out for that as well.
So let's do this—let's remove this, let's go to a higher time frame here, let's turn off the bull/bear. There's another thing on here I forgot was on here: Jesse Livermore. There are days to go long, there are days to go short, and there are days to go fishing. Today is a fishing day. Okay, I could have easily used him instead of the little squirrel, but I thought the squirrel was fun. Alright, trend lines—let's turn off everything but the daily. So on a smaller scale, it retested that daily and took off, and took off hard. I'm going to keep this line on here unless—let's say we come in a little bit more, then we ladder above this, I'll remove it. But at this point, I want to keep it here because if we come back to it, I want to know that. Okay, and that is somewhere around 5450—you know, depends on what time we get there, but 5450 is the area. Just keep it on your chart; if we get back there, we want to know. If we ladder away from it, I want to know that as well.
Well, alright, guys, I'm going to jump off here. I wish you good luck trading today, and I'll see my members live on Zoom later this morning. I forgot one thing: the scorecard. I forgot format—still getting used to this format. So let's come in here to a 30-minute chart for a second. I think we're going to know everything that happens here, but let's just take a peek. Let's take a peek—let me zoom in. So if I had to draw an overnight trend line, well, at this point that trend line honestly has to be down—that's the only trend line I can really draw here. So on that, I’ve got to give it to the bears. Session stacking—I’ve got this is with RTH and the overnights—it’s a little mixed, it’s kind of doing a little bit of a rounding here. But if I’m to obviously look at the week as a whole, the session stacking is north, so I’m going to have to give that to the bulls. Are we above or below VWAP? Well, everyone at this moment is below their VWAP. How do we know that so quickly? Well, our Day Trading Essentials indicator tells us so. So that would go to the bears, so VWAP goes to the bears. Oops, come on, bring it back. Then, what about the overnight halfback? Well, we are under the overnight halfback—that's got to go to the bears. Yesterday's range, at this point, it is still the bulls, so make sure you have on your chart the RTH halfback. 5550 was the level I kept telling my traders I thought was the most important level, so 5550—you want to make sure it's on your chart. In fact, let’s do one thing real quick, guys, if you don’t mind—let’s go back here on this chart, and I want to pull up my session levels. Actually, I'm totally fine with that afternoon pullback because that is at the 5550 level—perfect, okay. And the halfback is right underneath it at 49, so that 50-49 here is a very important level to have on your chart, certainly the bull/bear line, without a doubt. RTH halfback—that needs to make sure—I’ll go ahead and put that on my chart right now.
Alright, and we're back to the overnight ranges here. So, where are we in yesterday’s range? I’ve still got to give it to the bulls. What about everybody else? Well, let’s come over here and check out these indices. I’m going to pull them in. Upper distribution of yesterday—I didn’t move my lines yet—upper distribution of yesterday, upper distribution of yesterday, and upper distribution of yesterday. I will adjust these lines later—I’m not going to waste your time and do that here. Alright, so indices—bulls. Bull/bear line, to me, that's that RTH halfback, the bulls. And if we were to say that we're going to be attracted to the new week opening gap, well, that goes to the bears. So once again, it's 4 to 4. Well, I'm going to give the tiebreaker here to the bulls—they have had the most amazing week here. Wouldn’t be shocked to see us come up here and grab this all-time—not all-time—weekly high up here. I would envision that this defends, they come up here and grab it—what do I know? We will certainly see.
I wish you good luck today. I'll see my traders live here soon. Stay green, my friends, and to learn more about our group, go to microtrader.com.
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