Fri AM Briefing Preparing For Our Emini Trading Room 08/09/2024
Preparing ES & NQ Traders
For Our Emini and Micros Futures Trading Room
RESOURCES:For Our Emini and Micros Futures Trading Room
TRANSCRIPT:
Good morning, everybody! Happy Friday—Capital Preservation Day! Today is Friday, August 9th, and here's today's quote: "Rejoice always, pray continually, and give thanks." I love that. I'm sure we've used this one before, but it really spoke to me today. Rejoice always, pray continually, and give thanks—amen!
Alright, guys, let's get into it. Welcome to AM briefing number 236, brought to you by MicroTrader.com, where together we trade better. Now, today's tip of the day: who is trapped? Like our famous game show, "Trap the Trader," who is trapped? If you can determine who is trapped, that can help you decide whether you should be looking for longs or shorts. Yesterday was a beautiful example, and we're going to go over that again today.
So, news drivers today, guys: there is nothing. Eyes are now on next week's CPI. Today could just be a slop-and-chop fest, but we are at the top of a range, so I wouldn't be shocked if it came back in, and we're going to discuss those things as well. Let's get to the chart. First thing, it's Friday—don't give your week back! Trade with a smaller daily stop loss, perhaps only use a percentage of your weekly profit, to ensure you're going into the weekend a winner. Because I want you to go into the weekend a winner—don't give your week back today, because it makes the weekend horrible.
Okay, we don't have OPEX Friday; that's next week, I believe, and Monday is not a holiday, but next week is CPI. So I would expect a day of slop and chop. However, we continually have 120- to 180-point ranges, so what do I know? How about that, what do I know?
Okay, so we're going to go over yesterday. Now, I did a video last night called the ES Wrap-Up Show. If you want to go look at that, I dive into yesterday, but we're going to dive into some additional things today. Okay, so we had an overnight session—I love to draw an overnight trend line—and you had this, okay? Then you had this news driver. We had consolidation here, which we discussed on the AM briefing, and then we shot up, okay? At that time, you come in and you can throw on this. Now you are certainly in a parabolic move, if not a double parabolic move. What's one of our core tenets in our group? Don't counter a parabolic move. I'm telling you, don't counter a parabolic move.
Okay, I told the group if we get over this level, which was yesterday's halfback overnight high, it was also a ladder point—careful with shorts above because we are in short covering. Know who is trapped and where they are trapped, and where they're going to run out the door. Do you want to stand in front of that stampede? No, you do not. Now, had I been in this long here, which we discussed in the video last night, this is actually a pretty easy day for your mental and emotional capital because you just play protection layers, which brings me to this note: if you played one protection layer, had you been long here, you would have had a 50-pointer yesterday. If you'd used two protection layers, you'd have had an 80-pointer. So if you're in my group, I encourage you to go look at that, okay? I'm not going to hand that to you today—go look at it.
If I was trading in this area up here, through this crap, this will drain my batteries. This will drain me, drain me, and drain me. This is—I don't want to watch that, I don't want to be in it—although we had five gorgeous longs, and I posted these in the end-of-day charts. Where did these trades originate, and where did they come from? Five beautiful longs, in my opinion. And what trade should you have only been looking for? Longs. And in fact, you see these green dots here? This is where our up arrow would tell you if you're late and you're long, stay long. You didn't lose that up arrow often—you lost it in this down sequence here because this was no longer ideal conditions. It still has to pass the eyeball test in your protection layers. Had you used two protection layers, you'd still be in that trade, and in fact, you might have added right here, okay?
So be mindful of who is trapped, what is the arrow telling us as far as ideal conditions to stay long, and break levels tell the story—they continually tell the story. Let's slide over here. So last night, I'm going to show you our strong levels here. Last night, I had an order to go short at 4425, and it missed me by two points. I'm so sorry—I screenshotted the wrong one, dang it! Well, I had an order to go short here at 74—I thought I screenshotted the right one—so I don't know. Oh well, I messed that up. And then this morning, I had an order right here to go short at 38 against the retest of the strong range, and it didn't get me in, which stinks because the price certainly moved in my direction. And now, I would have had protection layers. Oh well, you can't win them all. But I went to bed with an order to go short at 74—I just looked at the wrong one. It's early, it's okay.
Alright, so now let's get to the chart on a bigger timeframe. On a bigger timeframe, alright, let's go to the 30-minute chart here. Let's pull this in, let's get rid of the strong levels, let's pull this in. And what trend line can you obviously draw here? Well, there's only really one because we are in this multi-day balance area here, right? But we're near the top of that range.
So, what are some levels that I would want you to be mindful of? Well, I had them on here—let me see where they went. No, I might have deleted them, dang it. Well, I would want you to have on your chart the RTH halfback here and this overnight high here because the halfback to the high is going to be real critical. If we get underneath there, you might want to watch out below. Where do people start getting trapped? That's where I think they get trapped.
So, let's come on here, let's get that level—where's the halfback? So, right here is yesterday's halfback. I think I must have accidentally deleted it. RTH halfback—so I want you to mark that RTH halfback there. This is kind of the first warning shot to bulls. The next area that I want you to draw is—I remember it was 8525, 8525, 8525 to 80, somewhere in there, and this would be "watch out below," okay? That would be "watch out below," that area there.
So could you come in here and draw this trend line? You could, but it just—I think that feels a little forced. But you've got to obviously notice the stacking of these levels here. And then on a 30-minute chart, you are in some sort of parabolic move, but you're against the ceiling of the range. This is a tough place to go long; it's a tough place to go short. Let me turn back on my strong levels. If we can clear this strong range and this strong level—this strong level is at 82—you certainly want to be long. I wouldn't be shorting above this 8150 number here, whatever this is exactly—8225—I wouldn't be looking to short above there. So overnight, we came back into this strong level, had a nice bounce, came back into this strong range, and are pulling back in. We're still in the upper distribution of this move, and in fact, let's go take a peek at everyone else. Where is everybody else? Where are we at in relation to everybody? Well, here's yesterday's highs—I need to get those a little more in alignment—but we're all up there in the upper distribution. Right at this moment, we seem to be challenging VWAP; Dow seems to be just getting under VWAP—are things changing? Very interesting. But we are in the upper distribution—it doesn't mean look to go short necessarily right here. I was only looking to go short on this three-minute because the strong ranges and strong levels tend to work very, very well, and you can see how long we camped out here. Some of them got out—some people bought up that were buying in this range, and then it couldn't get any higher, and they got out, okay?
So, to me, this was the first opportunity to really be short, other than the 74 I wanted way up here. I wanted to be short at 74 up here, but this 68 presented the next opportunity if I was looking to be short. And above this strong line here, I believe it's longs only. I hope you have a successful day trading, and I'll see you, my traders, live here soon. Green, my friends! And to learn more about our group, go to MicroTrader.com.
Comments
Post a Comment