Mon AM Briefing Preparing For Our Emini Trading Room 08/19/2024
Preparing ES & NQ Traders
For Our Emini and Micros Futures Trading Room
RESOURCES:For Our Emini and Micros Futures Trading Room
TRANSCRIPT:
Good morning, everybody! Happy Monday, August 19th! We have a big week ahead, with storms expected to move in towards the end of the week. Let’s see how this week's trading matches up. Today’s quote: "Husbands, love your wives just as Christ loved the church." I love it! Treasure your woman; she does so much goodness for us. I know mine does, and I’m sure yours does too. So, husbands, love your wives just as Christ loved the church.
Alright, let’s get into it, guys. Welcome to the AM Briefing number 242, brought to you by microtrader.com, where together we trade better.
Updates this weekend: Two or three of the indicators received minor tweaks, and I published two videos—one on the weekend candles, which is the weekend review session levels. I want to make sure that you mark anything additional that seems important and give an overview of what's coming this week. I also posted a quick video last night on how to add contracts without adding risk—a core tenet of our trading system that we try to reinforce live when we’re on Zoom. When you’re in a trade and need help, make sure you say something because I’ll stop what I’m doing to help you manage your trade, as you’ve seen many times. So, if you’re in the group, feel free to do that.
Tip of the day: You want to trade long until it’s obvious not to. I covered that slightly this weekend in the weekend candles video, so I’ll refer you to that. Basically, you want to be trading long until it’s obvious not to.
News drivers this week: We have a few earnings lows—Target, Macy’s—and all eyes are focused on the end of the week with Jackson Hole. On Friday, Powell speaks, and that’s where the eyeballs are. Also, the DNC convention in Chicago, where you can get free abortions and vasectomies on demand, so we are in for a weird, wild week. The Hamas rejected any ceasefire deal, so that could heat up as well, but all eyes are on Chairman Powell.
Here are the RTH sessions, and what have we done? Well, one day higher, higher, higher… seven days in a row. What does that mean? Well, if we were to flip a coin a thousand times, 50/50 is going to show up heads and tails, right? But at some point in that sequence, there’s going to be a streak. We are now at seven up days—seven days one time framing up. Will that continue? Well, today has a 50/50 chance, but we also know that streaks come to an end.
Everyone’s eyes are on this high here—there’s no magic 5600. It’s a big round number, plus it’s a high. I was thinking last night when we opened up and started shooting up that maybe we would get up there and grab that, but it didn’t happen yet. It pulled back perfectly to half back and has been laddering up since. You’d think the short-term goal, of course, is that daily high up there around 5601 if I remember exactly.
Let’s bunch this in a little bit because I want to talk about trends. So, let’s pull on the trend here and go back to an hourly chart. Why not? Let’s open this up. Here we go: We have this primary trend line, and then we are in this parabolic move that keeps dancing along this trend line. I would think we get above this trend line and still come up here to hit this 5600—it’s literally right there. I’m keeping this daily trend line on here because I want to know if we backtest that. We talked about that in the weekend candles and some levels there that are really important for you to pay attention to if you’re not in my group, and if you are in my group as well, because it needs to be on your chart too.
So, parabolic on a 30-minute or hourly timeframe—it’s the same on a 4-hour timeframe, right? High timeframe, we’re in a parabolic move, we broke the daily trend line—monster huge—so that’s important, and the 5600 is important. Let’s dial in a little bit more. What are some of the nearest levels we’d want to pay attention to? Let’s spread this thing out. First, let’s turn on the single prints and VIX. There was a set of single prints there that I didn’t remove, so I updated the single prints in VIX. It is on the price map at microtrader.com. Go to microtrader.com, click on the price map, and you’ll get access to all those single prints and VPO, so I’ll refer you to that instead of me pointing them out.
Let’s go to the session levels. Here’s the level we marked in the weekend candles—of course, the halfback using our pre-flight indicator. This RTH high has been taken out, so now what I do—that’s 8625—I move this over here to my quitting time, which is 11:00, 8625. Instead of trying to get that exactly perfect, I double-click on it, go to the coordinates, and knock it down one tick. Once it’s been hit, I tend to move it to the side. I’m going to do the same thing with this halfback here—6675, 6675, perfect. Now, when they’re off to the right, I know it’s been hit. Let’s turn on the trend lines so we can see that trend line there, and of course, when we get back into this area, it will be quite something to pay attention to.
In this area, let’s turn on our strong levels. I published that last night for the members—what strong levels are nearby that we’d want to pay attention to. So let me turn them on. Strong level here—what’s that level? Somewhere about 52, then another strong level here at 0250, and then a strong range right above that, 625 to 10, somewhere in there, is the next strong range. We are in a massive strong up move. Will there be a rotation lower eventually? Will that happen today? I don’t know. But what I would be looking for is if we get up here, how do we react off any of these levels, and do we come back in under this trend line? That’s what I will be looking for. If we push down, I’ll be looking to take this liquidity at the RTH low, look for a ladder back in, and get long. So it’s long until it’s really obvious that I should be short—one of the reasons for the tip of the day.
Friday was OPEX, no holiday, no CPI, FOMC, or non-farm payroll this week. We do have Jackson Hole towards the end, and that’s what we’ll be looking at.
Let’s take a peek at everybody here. Three out of four of us are in the upper distribution, two of us are above our VWAP, one is battling, and Russell is the weakest.
Let’s go to the scorecard. Overnight trend line—that’s a tough one. If you forced me to draw a trend line, I’d probably have to draw this one, so I’ll have to give that trend line to the bulls. Session stacking—I’ve got to give that to the bulls. In relation to yesterday’s range, we’re in the upper distribution. As far as the indices, it’s bulls. The bull-bear line—where is the bull-bear line? On my strong indicators, I have the bull-bear line further down. The bull-bear line for today, to me, would be the daily low—probably somewhere in this little range between the daily low and the London low. This is the bull-bear range, so I’ll still have to give that to the bulls.
The new week opening gap—boy, that thing played so beautifully last night. Let’s go and look at that. I didn’t trade last night, but I was certainly watching how price danced with the new week opening gap. That’s what I drew here, and boy, you can just see how nicely we played with that. Came back up, touched the bottom, touched the middle, and now breaking out above it, which is characteristic of these new week opening gaps. I can’t give that to either the bulls or the bears at this point because we’re literally right here at it. But it’s pretty obvious—the bulls win the scorecard.
Be safe out there, and I’ll see my traders live here in just a little while. Stay green, my friends! To learn more about our group, go to microstrader.com.
Comments
Post a Comment