Tue AM Briefing Preparing For Our Emini Trading Room 08/06/2024

Preparing ES & NQ Traders
For Our Emini and Micros Futures Trading Room

RESOURCES:
            ▶️ ES Price Map (Single Prints, VPOCS, News Drivers,...)

            ▶️Youtube Community Updates             ▶️ Website for ES MES Trading Room (Back Up)


TRANSCRIPT:

Good morning, everybody. Good morning! Today is Tuesday, August 6th. Alright, today's quote: "There is a time to be silent and a time to speak." How does that relate to trading? Well, there's probably a time to trade and probably a time not to trade. There's a time to be long and a time to be short. Knowing those differences can be the key to being successful or struggling. This is something we try to be very cognizant of in our group—understanding which side of the market we're on. Could we be trading? Should we be trading with leverage? These are constant discussions in our room and in our Discord group. Alright, guys, let's get to it. Welcome to the AM briefing number 233 brought to you by microtrader.com, where together we trade better. Tip of the day: no picking bottoms. What happens when you pick a bottom? Your finger comes up stinky. So, you don't need to be picking bottoms here. There's plenty of time to be long, and trying to get long down in this area could be hazardous to your health. News drivers: Level 10 last week, level 10 next week, and boy, it looks like level 10 this week, right? No news drivers today to speak of, but remember, next week is CPI. In the next hour and a half, we'll be live on YouTube. If you're thinking about joining our group and you want to check us out, we'll be live. I'll post the link to the live session in the first comment and in the description below. If you like what we're doing here, like and subscribe and consider becoming a member. Seasonality: Let's look at August. I had that arrow on the wrong month, so slide over one more. You'll see that August seems to have a strong pullback with a strong recovery. That's one of the things we're going to talk about today—the possibility of that recovery and where on the chart it might happen. We're in a very fast market with large candles, and you really need to be perfect. Perfection is demanded. Do not prediction trade—no level, no trade—and trade small if at all. How can you go smaller? Do you really need to trade all 20 accounts at once? Should you be trading full leverage in a market with large, fast candles, or can you trade small? It's really easy to make a 10, 20, 30, 40 pointer in these conditions; you don't have to trade big here. I recommend you consider going smaller. We are on a 4-hour chart, and there was this trend line here. Then we had this short covering rally of 169 points and a vomit back down. The bears are in control. Here's what I'm thinking: we had the Asia overnight high last night. I was kind of thinking we were going to get a squeeze last night. The Nikkei index was actually halted because of its large move north, so I thought, okay, maybe that's going to happen here. But we literally saw the high tick last night, went to bed, and woke up back within the range. We had this new week opening gap here—have that on your chart. We will certainly discuss that on Zoom and YouTube today. That's where my eyeballs are. If we can ladder above this, the risk of a short squeeze is very high, and to me, the bulls will control above this. That does not mean we're out of the woods because we could very well just squeeze right back up here, grab a bit of liquidity, and slam it back down, continuing the trend. So, don't think the bottom is in just because we ladder over this. To me, this is where the focus needs to be, and the risk of a short squeeze is high. We have a big buy level down here where it was bought up aggressively. We opened and never saw our opening again. As I mentioned in my group, what couldn't happen yesterday was the bulls couldn't get back to the opening, nor could it create a backside to the south—interesting warning signs. Let's now pop down to the 3-minute chart and take a peek at yesterday. Yesterday, as I posted on the price map at microtraders.com, I try to do a little update during the day. I try to screenshot the actual trades with the DOM, but price was moving so aggressively yesterday that I didn't really get to do that. This was my personal result: trading one micro contract per trade, I had a $3 drawdown, ran it up to $141, captured $139, and that was my day. Very nice—that'll put a smile on a man's face, trading one micro at a time in a high volatility environment. Let me spread this out so we can see yesterday clearly. Let me turn on my notes for today—not many notes today. My best trade yesterday was going long, taking a little bit of heat, popping back up with a very nice move. I initially locked in 10 points, then 20 points, and it got me out on that candle, which is no big deal. A couple of things to note about that. Let me turn back on my Essentials indicator. I had this arrow up, which tells us if you're long, try to stay long. It's just a suggestion, not a rule. I remember telling the group I kind of thought about it too late and forgot about the arrow. If I'd stayed in and took profit at the overnight high, it would have been a 50-pointer instead of 20 points. So, I'm not disappointed capturing 20 points in this environment, but I missed out on 30 points on that move. It is what it is. Yesterday, around this time, the ATR on these 3-minute candles was 18 to 20—big monster candles. You better trade small with a wider stop, or you'll have a very disappointing day. Let's talk about some levels again. We opened and never saw the opening again. The bulls were in control and tried to push it down in the afternoon but couldn't. So, what does that make that area? To me, this 89 is the bull-bear line. The first warning is going to be what we do at halfback. If we get under halfback, that's the first warning flag to bulls. If we get underneath here, we're likely targeting this RTH low at minimum. I'm curious to see what's going to happen, and we will discuss it all live on YouTube and Zoom this morning. You are invited to join us. Have a safe day, and I'll talk to you later. Green, my friends, and to learn more about our group, go to microstrader.com.