Wed AM Briefing Preparing For Our Emini Trading Room 08/28/2024
Preparing ES & NQ Traders
For Our Emini and Micros Futures Trading Room
RESOURCES:For Our Emini and Micros Futures Trading Room
TRANSCRIPT:
Good morning everybody, good morning. Happy Wednesday, August the 28th. Can you believe it's almost over? My goodness. But today's quote, I'm sure I've done this one before, but I love it: "Listen to advice, accept discipline, and at our age, it's self-discipline. And at the end, you will be counted among the wise." Yes, and you can pray for wisdom on top of this. Okay, so listen to advice. Hopefully, you're in a group where everybody's trading the same charts, the same trades with the sound system, except the discipline that comes with that system: no level, no trade. Period, end of the story. Be careful countering parabolic moves and know whether you should be looking for longs or shorts. We have all that in place, and at the end, you'll be counted among the wise.
Alright, let's get into it. Welcome to the A Briefing brought to you by microtrader.com. We're together, we trade better. Episode number 249. Tip of the Day: Be careful countering a trend line bounce. More specifically, be careful countering or taking the first counter trade to a trend line bounce, okay? And we'll talk about that in today's review, I believe.
So, what's going on today? Well, there's world watch parties for NVIDIA earnings after the close. In fact, we might probably pop live on Zoom and have a little NVIDIA watch party ourselves. So, today's news drivers: nada. We're waiting for NVIDIA at the close. Tomorrow, we've got preliminary GDP, unemployment claims, and of course, all eyes are on Friday's PCE. We're rounding the end of the week, low volume week. I think yesterday might have been the lowest volume on SPY, and heading into a holiday weekend, so still weird stuff, right?
Next YouTube live, actually, I think I'm done with the YouTube lives. Did it all summer long every Tuesday, so I probably need to update these slides going forward. So, let's get to the chart. In yesterday's review, in the morning when we popped on Zoom, I gave out these two scenarios of what I was looking to happen. Okay, and you have to wait patiently for those trades to happen. We were up in this area, still bouncing back and forth between this strong range. I was hoping we came down to my next strong level. I would have preferred this trade location, and maybe even the next strong underneath here. That would have been great because I feel like that would have filled out the multi-day range, but that's not what happened. We went to the first line and had a bounce. Let me scroll over.
So, in our group, we were short. Um, jeez, I forget exactly where. I'm going to say actually, I think we were short inside of this blue candle. Okay, we were short inside of that blue candle. I captured two points, that was it. That's all it gave me. We have a system of where we take profit, and then when we did one more flush, we dropped in time frames, and we're looking to get long, and that's what we did. In fact, it was basically long all day long in my humble opinion. Huge 30-minute time frame trend line bounce. Anything on this side of here, in my opinion, should have been longs, and in fact, if you throw on the VWAP, you'll see even the VWAP became a very supportive place for price, and we just kept repelling up. So, um, for me, it was longer flat all day.
Now, I did do a 10-pointer live on the YouTube stream yesterday. I mapped it out, said, "Okay, if we pop above this and come back in, I'm going long." That's exactly what I did, and I captured a 10-point move off of the bottom of my range. In fact, that 3225 that I'd been giving out for the last couple of days, I captured 10 points of this move. Actually, when it came back in, because at one point, it was almost a 20-pointer. I told the group if it got above the 20, I was going to take, I was going to move my stop to 20, but instead, I captured a 10-pointer net net, and that was my trading day. I didn't actually feel any of this was worth trading, and I said that to my group on Discord, that this was just trash price action. But everybody's their own trader. You make your own investment decisions. I'm simply a tour guide on a journey, pointing out the sights along the way and telling you, "Hey, look here, look here, consider this," and then you make your own decisions.
So, where are we? Let's go to a 10-minute chart. I'm just going to bring this in some. Let's get rid of the strong levels, and let's just focus on where we're at. In fact, let's just go to a 30-minute ES chart, and the reason I want to go to the 30-minute chart is I told the group, I said, "Yesterday, this trend line touch is going to be nothing but a wick when you go to a 30-minute chart." And look at that at those candles, there it was nothing more than a wick. So while this trend line is effective that I gave out in the group on Sunday, you want to honor that and be careful countering that move.
Okay, now we are at a multi-day balance. In fact, let's come in here and go from here to here, and let's draw this in. And then I'm going to take this rectangle tool because we're going to call this the balance area of this entire multi-day move, and you can see where the multi-day pock is. In fact, let's turn on session levels. Did I get rid of that? I think I did. So if you wanted to, you can come back in here on that red line and put in that multi-day pock. You can see that red line, that's where the multi-day pock is. That is considered fair price. We're going to one, two, three, four, five, probably six-day pock. We'll call that six-day pock, and now we're going to pull up this multi-day balance here, and we seem to be at the edge or breaking out.
Okay, um, on Monday, I said that if we come back into balance, we're probably coming to the lower end of balance, and we did that. Um, maybe I would have considered a little bit further down to be the bottom of the balance, uh, just around this 5600 number, but I think we definitely made it to the bottom of balance, then we made it back to the top of balance. So, I just want to point that out. Alright, let's go look at NQ now. So, in Q, in the morning, I gave this directive out, um, when we got on Zoom yesterday morning, somewhere about this time frame, and that seemed to have worked out as well. Uh, for the same reasons, to me, it was probably only longs on NQ yesterday. I know I'm on a 10-minute chart, but look how supportive VWAP was after that. I think that's really important to note.
Let's go do this now. Let's go to a 30-minute trend, and let's make sure we don't need to adjust trend lines. It certainly looks like we do now from Sunday when we drew them. So, NQ and ES definitely look a little different, and ES is very close to being able to easily take out its all-time high. So, I think at this point, I would probably even remove... Yeah, I think I would even remove this. I'm going to come back in here, and I'm going to say on NQ, let me get rid... Let me put these levels, the session levels. Let's turn that off. I think on NQ, I would almost have to redraw this thing. Let's go to a 10-minute chart, see where we're at.
Um, I think I like, honestly, I think I like this trend line right here the best. Um, at this point, I'm thinking that's going to be my primary trend line. Let's go to a 4-hour chart for a second, and I guess if you really wanted to, you could come back in here and throw on this. I would color this, I'm going to go and just color this orange because I know it's a high time frame level. I think those are the trend lines I would put on NQ. Let's go back to a 10-minute chart, spread this out.
Okay, I think those make the most sense here. Let's turn back on our session levels. We got this RTH high here. Let's go ahead and add that, clean up my own chart a little bit. RTH high, beautiful. Let's come in here and add this RTH high, that way I have it all laid out beautifully. Let's head this London high, perfect, perfect, perfect. We can remove this, we can remove this. This is not Asia, this is London, so I can be specific, and we got the overnight low there. And I want to come in, let's turn on the pre-flight. I want to know where my halfback is, and halfback is right here. Halfback, so let's go ahead and throw that on there as well. Let's take a look at those, turn the trend lines off to clean that up a little bit. Let's turn off the essentials indicator to just see this, and let's turn on the magnet tool, make sure we're exact. This RTH low, there we go. Now, let's go to a 30-minute chart for a second. I want to look at NQ now. Let's throw on so we can see where the multi-day pock is for, um, in Q. You can see the balance area. NQ is in the middle of its multi-day balance area. It is in the middle, and versus NQ, I mean, ES was above. There, just interesting.
Okay, let's go look at the indices. Where are we on the indices? These, well, at this point, we're, we seem to all be half back and above. We seem to have an upward slanting VWAP, but almost flat. You could see a couple of down candles of any kind of size, that VWAP would be violated, a VWAP would start turning. But if I'm looking at NQ and ES, you have to say it's in the bullish category at this point, but we also seem to be bouncing off yesterday. Um, high. Now, if we get above yesterday's high, one of the things I'm going to do is I'm going to come, I'm going to squeeze this in, and I'm going to mark yesterday's high. Okay, so if you wanted to go ahead and mark yesterday's high and just know it's a temporary thing, yesterday, let's do it. Let's do it. Why not? We'll put in yesterday's high right there because I think that might be an important number if we break above the high. If not, I'll probably get rid of it for tomorrow, but it makes a lot of sense to me that it is there.
Um, back to the ES chart for a second. So, where would my eyeballs be? Obviously, um, Monday's high, Tuesday's low, where are we in relation to, uh, these two items? We're just at yesterday's high. Do we ladder above that, or are we going to cycle back in? That will be really interesting to see. Yeah, alright. Let's go do the Bull Bear Discussion, bull bear comparison at this time. Overnight trend line, I think that's pretty obvious. We got to give that to the Bulls. Now, that can change. Yesterday, that changed really quickly, didn't it? And we're at that point where price could easily rotate back in. Let's go to a 10-minute chart on the ES. Price could easily rotate back in, come back down, and grab this Asia low at, at this six-day pock, and um, the RTH halfback is just underneath that right here. RTH halfback, RTH halfback there, and against trend, that'll be real interesting. And I'll tell you, um, I will put my where my eyeballs will be. So, in the com, in the description below, I'll, I'll put where I believe the eyeballs for this chart should be. So, but the overnight trend line at this point, you got to give to the Bulls.
Session stacking, well, I got to give that to the Bulls. If you look at London, Asia, London, Asia, New York, we seem to be stacking up, so I got to go there. VWAP, we got to give it to the Bulls. Um, overnight halfback, got to give it to the Bulls. Yesterday's range, got to give it to the Bulls. Indices, boy, indices is not that, I got to give it to the Bulls, just give it to the Bulls. Bull bear line for me, it's probably going to be intraday, this little bull bear line is going to be this trend line here. Um, so I got to give it to that. And where are we in the balance area? And what I'm talking about here is which direction could price be pulled? Well, the multi-day pock is down here, so I got to give that to the bears, but it's pretty obvious everything is still in the bull category.
We're on a holding pattern, waiting for NVIDIA. Like I said, there are literally watch parties around the world to listen to the CEO give his talk. Um, so I'm moderating my expectations. I need to know where I'm at on a high time frame. This was an easy trade location to trade. I'm not 100% sure here because we're at the top of the balance range, um, and will we cycle back in? I don't know. I just felt that this was an easier trade location to trade yesterday. I outlined that long there, and that worked beautifully. Um, for me to go short, we will see on Zoom. Stay green, my friends, and to learn more about our group, go to microtrader.com.
Comments
Post a Comment