Fri AM Briefing Preparing For Our Emini Trading Room 09/20/2024
Preparing ES & NQ Traders
For Our Emini and Micros Futures Trading Room
RESOURCES:For Our Emini and Micros Futures Trading Room
TRANSCRIPT:
Welcome ES MES Futures Traders! Good morning everybody! Happy, happy Triple Witching Friday, Opex Friday. You better put your hard hats on, boys—it's going to be tough out there.
Today's quote: "Plant your seed in the morning." Do you get up early and mark your charts? You make sure you have a thorough pre-flight and keep busy all afternoon, for you do not know if profit will come from one activity or another, or both. I think that's wise advice. — Ecclesiastes 11:6
Alright, let's get into it, guys! Welcome to the AM briefing, brought to you by MicrosTrader.com, where together we trade better. Episode number 265. We are an ES MES Futures trading room with a very solid day trading system whose focus is mainly on trading in the morning, making our money, and getting it done.
Don't forget, below there are timestamps. I've removed putting the levels inside of the description because I have it on the thumbnail now. If you want archives of the AM briefings, they're on my website at MicrTrader.com. If you join the group, make sure you earn your badges—that's where the free coaching, or coaching that is included with your initial membership fee, comes from. Make sure you get that feedback. Make sure you're marking your levels where your levels match my levels.
If you're interested in checking this out, grab yourself a Zoom pass or join the next YouTube live in 11 days. Like, share, and comment—I appreciate the support!
So, today is Friday. Friday rules are in full effect. Do not give your week back. Have a smaller daily stop loss, perhaps take your weekly percentage, your weekly profits, and come up with a percentage of that which you're willing to risk today. That's it—go into the weekend a winner.
Is it Opex Friday? It is. Every third Friday of each month is Opex Friday. That is squirrely price action. You better be careful out there, boys. This is two days after FOMC and after a 320-something point run here in the last week or so, making all-time highs. Opex Friday—I couldn't think of a worse place to be.
Tip of The Day: Trying to trade? So, tip of the day, man—this tip has reigned all week long. It's two things really: know when not to trade, and yes, our system will keep you safe if you let it. Period. End of story. Basic core strategy taught in the Core Strategy Academy that will keep you safe 100%. Your discretion, AR trades, are what hurt you—thinking you know where the price is going to go. We don't know. It is unknown. It is unknowable. We have a high-probability system that, when it touches our line, it's probably going to bounce. But if you are trading before you have a real line, well, bad stuff.
News Drivers: Well, today, not much news drivers except option expiration. Red folder day, red circle day—dial it down. Electric fence. That's right—don't whiz on the electric fence. Today is electric fence day.
Let's look at the ES chart: Where Are We At? We’re on an hourly time frame. We have this daily trend line peeking through down here. We have this 1-hour, 4-hour, or whatever high time frame trend line here, and then on CPI, we went parabolic. When we’re day trading and we go parabolic, it is always recommended not to counter a parabolic move. So, from the bottom of the CPI candle up to where we're at, about a 320-point move this week. We've had a 126-point move; the expected move was somewhere around 100 points, so we have exceeded the expected move.
We are in the third week of trading. The first week was a vomit, then some consolidation, and CPI ripped it out of there. We've been going up ever since. So, let's dial it in here. Let me get rid of this, this, and I can delete this. Let's go down into a three-minute chart.
There’s not a whole lot to go over. Yesterday was another perfect example of, well, first of all, it was sandwich day—the day between FOMC and option expiration. Not a great day to trade, and yesterday proved to be that. Now, we did do a short here and two longs. Both longs missed me; I got into the short though, and that made my money yesterday. I was up 20 points yesterday in total at the end of the day.
What’s happened overnight? We are just hugging right here in the middle of this range. So, let’s do this: let’s go to a 10-minute chart. Let’s bunch this thing in a little bit. So, the London session from the previous night, of course, the overnight had all the fun yesterday. I tried to be long down here—maybe I should have just gone long, put in a 10–20 point stop loss, and gone, "You know what? I want to be in that," because we kept defending that strong level down here that I gave out—7925, something like that. Kept defending it, and I should have just gone long, put in a stop, and gone to bed. Boy, missed out on a 100-pointer yesterday. Yeah, it is what it is. Who cares? No big deal. There’s more—there's another high-probability trade around the corner.
We are still within this London session, and if you take the London high and the New York low, we’re just all in here—we’re basing for something. Did they take it back yet? No. Are there any trapped longs? That’s really an important question. Are there any trapped longs? Maybe the guys who went long up here. But at the end of the day, they’re going to defend price to the session low. Nothing changes till we take out a session low.
We had in our group 61 as the key level before perhaps this thing started vomiting. I took one short in here last night—I was up several points and just kept it at one tick, and it came and got me. It is what it is. Who cares? All we've been doing is going straight sideways. Once you enter a trade, you don’t know what’s going to happen. You really don’t—it’s unknown and unknowable. The best thing you can do is just manage your trade.
We seem to have been heading down from here, so I was really happy with my short. You never know—this thing could have just kept continuing and going on and on, kind of like this long here would have done. But no big deal—I got out at one tick profit, which pays for commissions, and you wait for your next high-probability trade.
Let’s go take a peek at indices. What did everybody else do overnight? Well, we basically have done the same thing. Three of us are under our VWAPs, but barely. One of us is above, two of us in the lower distribution, two of us at halfback. This is the weakest setup we have seen in the overnight session in a little while, so that's very interesting.
Let’s go do our bull-bear scorecard here. So, overnight trend line, well, I think not. It would have to be slightly downwards, so I’m going to have to give that to the Bears. Session stacking, well, that's still got to go to the Bulls, guys. VWAP, let’s go back and check over here—we’re under. Under the two primaries are under at this moment. Two primaries are under right now; got to give that to the Bears.
Overnight Halfback: Let me turn on my essentials indicator here. Overnight halfback is this little train track, these little plus signs. We are under it, so you know who that goes to—that goes to the Bears.
Where are we in yesterday’s range? Are we under or over halfback? We are under halfback. Bears.
Indices: Let’s go take a peek at them again. The two primaries are under; the two secondaries are over. I’m going to have to go with the two primaries on this, guys. I think I’m going to go with the two primaries on this and give the indices to the Bears.
Where's the bull-bear line? Let me come back over here. What would I consider the bull-bear line? Man, that's a really great question, and that’s something you always want to kind of think for yourself. Where’s the "I want to be long above there and I want to be short" line? A lot of times it can be at halfback on an expansive range day. So, what I’m going to do is take these three sessions here, RTH down to here, and I kind of think this line, which is half of that, which is yesterday’s RTH low—basically the IB low—I’m going to consider that the bull-bear line at this time. I’m going to give that to the Bulls.
Are we at risk of short covering? No. Are we at risk of a liquidation break? Yes. That’s got to go to the Bears, guys. If you look at that, it looks like the Titanic is turning. Is the small rudder turning the big boat? The Bears might wrangle control today on Opex Friday.
I wish you good luck today. Thank you for being a member, and if you're not a member, check us out at MicrTrader.com. Stay green, my friends, and to learn more about our group, go to MicrosTrader.com.
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