Mon AM Briefing Preparing For Our Emini Trading Room 09/09/2024
Preparing ES & NQ Traders
For Our Emini and Micros Futures Trading Room
RESOURCES:For Our Emini and Micros Futures Trading Room
TRANSCRIPT:
Welcome ES MES Futures Traders
Good morning, everybody! Good morning! Welcome to the first full week of September—no, I'm wrong! Why did I say that? Jeez, this is actually the second week, though it certainly feels like the first week.
So, Monday, September 9th. Today's quote is an oldie but a goodie: "I can do all things through Him who gives me strength." That is part of the morning prayers that my wife and I go through each morning during our Bible study, which I do right after this 8 a.m. briefing. I can't wait to do that with her, and I encourage you to do that with your wife as well. I promise you, it is a delightful, wonderful, and intimate experience to read the Bible to your wife.
Let's get right into our business today, which is the a.m. briefing brought to you by micrtrader.com. Episode number 256—let's get right into it!
Tip of the Day
Be careful shorting a short-covering rally. We are now in a time period where, daily, we're reminded of short-covering rallies until we get one that's vicious and hard. So, be careful countering short covering.
Now, we're going to look at the chart here in a second to see what happened overnight. Remember, there are timestamps below my morning chart, showing where my focus might be. If you're a new member, please make sure you earn your badges—it's free coaching to ensure you're marking your levels correctly. If you'd like to check us out, grab a Zoom pass. If you wouldn't mind, please like, subscribe, and share to show your support! If you like what I do here, I would appreciate it—it costs you absolutely nothing.
News Drivers
I added a couple here after the weekend. First, there's an Apple event today, which I'm really excited about because I'm ready to upgrade my old Intel iMac. It’s still working perfectly, but I’m looking to upgrade. A presidential debate is happening this week, which is a big one.
I didn’t put this in the chart tune-up for the weekend, but this is rollover week, which is not my favorite week to trade—especially at the end of the week and on Monday. Next Monday, you’ll be trading the new contract. I find prices can get very squirrely, so I’ve changed Friday from green to yellow, and possibly even red, because it's rolling into the FOMC, and next week is option expiration. We’ve got a lot going on: GameStop, Adobe earnings, and the expected move this week is twice last week’s move. So, think about that!
No major news drivers today or tomorrow. It's just a regular Monday, but be careful. CPI is on Wednesday, and that’s where the focus will be. What’s the market going to do before CPI? I don’t know, but we are in an area where the risk of short covering is high, and the market seems to care more about jobs than prices right now. It'll be interesting to see the reaction. Remember, level 10 is coming in the middle of the week—respect those level 10 days.
ES Chart: Where Are We At?
Yesterday, on Sunday, I published a YouTube video on the ES chart tune-up, where we went over several levels. I won’t cover many levels this morning because we did that yesterday. If you didn’t watch the video, I encourage you to check it out before trading today.
Let’s talk about what happened overnight. We gapped up last night, and I went to bed soon after. I wanted to be long off the first level it tapped three times, got over the top, then went long. That was going to be my long trade today, but it happened overnight. The overnight session moved about 60 points, which is 3x the normal range, signaling a strong level.
As for an overnight trendline, it’s super easy to draw today. My focus is on the 4754-47125 range—essentially, the RTH halfback of yesterday. If the market opened now (this briefing is published two hours before the market opens), we’d be opening within range but under the halfback. We had a tremendously beautiful move on the way up with several entry points, according to our core strategy.
When this opened, I was ready to go long at the bottom of the opening gap last night, but it didn’t quite get there. It only made it to halfback. When it shot up, I was asleep, so I missed the trade. It is what it is!
Bull-Bear Scorecard
Now, let’s move on to the Bull-Bear Scorecard.
Overnight trendline: Easy to spot. Bulls take this one.
Session stacking: We’ve had several down days, so I’ll give this one to the Bears.
VWAP: We’re above VWAP, so this goes to the Bulls.
Overnight halfback: We’re in the upper distribution, so Bulls win here.
Opening inside the range: At the moment, it’s the Bears, but this could change.
For now, we're tied. I believe the RTH halfback will be critical. That’s yesterday’s range, and I’m using that as the bull-bear line. If we get above that 71-76 zone, I’d be cautious with any shorting ideas.
There are people who’d say that since last week was all down days, every rally should be sold until proven otherwise. However, if you’re going to short, I’d do it at session highs or strong levels.
We’ll re-evaluate this on the opening, live on Zoom in our group at micrtrader.com. I wish you good luck today. Have fun, stay green, and see you tomorrow!
To learn more about our group, go to microstrader.com.
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