Thu AM Briefing Preparing For Our Emini Trading Room 09/26/2024
Preparing ES & NQ Traders
For Our Emini and Micros Futures Trading Room
RESOURCES:For Our Emini and Micros Futures Trading Room
TRANSCRIPT:
Welcome ES MES Futures Traders!
Good morning, everybody, and happy Thursday, September 26th. Oh my, monthly bills are almost due again—end of the month, end of the quarter—and what an awesome overnight session we had.
Today's quote is about "having your feet shod with the preparation of the Gospel." This means being prepared to go out and spread the gospel. It's a battle, but you have to be prepared for it. Back then, they used nails in their shoes to give them grip so they could stand their ground in battle.
Alright, let's get into it, guys. Welcome to the AM briefing, number 269 (let me change that number here). There we go—269. Together, we trade better. We are an ES MES Futures Trading room. Check us out at microstrader.com. Next Tuesday, we will be doing a live stream on YouTube for free if you want to check us out.
Tip of the Day: Look at the cards and then decide to bet. When we make a trade, it’s like poker in a sense—you get to look at all the cards, except for the final dealer cards. But you get to see your own cards and say, "I like where I’m at. I love the trend, my leverage, this level, and the backup level." You get to look at all your cards and then decide to place your bet—decide wisely.
Today, there are tons of FOMC speakers and news drivers. Let me turn that on real quick. On Thursday, of course, Powell speaks this morning, just 10 minutes before the market opens. What a weird time! We'll be aware of that in our group before trading begins. We also have the final GDP report and unemployment claims—lots of data—one hour before the market opens. We will be live for this announcement, and afterward, we’ll get into our audiobook that we’ve been listening to. Then we'll watch Powell, find him on YouTube, and stay out of the way until it’s over before we trade our levels.
Remember, it’s the end of the quarter this week, and we finally exploded out of balance. But first, let’s talk about yesterday.
Yesterday Review: On yesterday’s YouTube video, I outlined that if we went up and took out the all-time high and came back in, this would be the battleground for the bulls—that's the word I used, "battleground for the bulls." If we took this out and laddered, we would probably head to the bottom end of balance. And guess what? That’s what happened.
In our group, we had this outlined, and I set this bullish setup because I believed this would be the battleground. If we got underneath it and laddered down, we would likely come to 3450. Let’s take a peek at what happened—most of you already know. We came down to that battleground but couldn’t ladder under it. Then overnight, boom! We exploded out of balance to the north.
ES Chart: In our group last night, I put a trendline on the chart, and wow, did it hold! Yesterday on NQ, I gave a target. NQ desperately wanted to get to this level, and boy, did it. I didn’t participate in that move, but that’s okay. You don’t need to be in every move—it is what it is.
The bulls are firmly in control now, having taken us out of balance to new all-time highs. However, there’s a problem with this move. Do we have broad participation? Only NQ is above yesterday’s high; everyone else is still in the middle. Yes, they’re lading up, and they’re above their VWAPs, but this is not broad participation in a monster move.
Let’s bring everything back into alignment. We’re all heading north, but not everyone is participating, which raises questions about this move. If we retrace, be careful.
ES Chart II: Levels: We had a strong level on the chart for two or three weeks. It reacted slightly, backtested, and continued its journey, but it wasn’t a turnaround point. None of my lines are turnaround points—I wish I could call turnarounds! What we do instead is play the price to hit our levels, and if it bounces, we keep a runner with multiple contracts.
Make sure to mark off the lows. You’ll want to know where the overnight halfback is. I’m going to add that to my chart today because we don’t usually have a 50-point overnight range! So, I’ll mark the overnight halfback on my chart, along with the RTH high, yesterday’s halfback, and RTH low.
These levels will serve as small checkpoints—"speed bumps," if you will—along the way. Do we bounce off them, or melt right through? That will tell us something about the strength of the move.
As we head into today’s trading, make sure these levels are on your chart. Let’s mark the overnight low from London and Asia as well. These are the little speed bumps. Do we bounce off each one, or do we continue retracing?
If we retrace to halfback and ladder back up, I’ll be looking for a long position. If we test the previous all-time high, get back over the halfback and the strong level, that’s another signal to go long.
On the flip side, if we get under the overnight low and ladder down, I’ll be looking to get short and follow the trade with 25% until I hit protection layers, as this is extremely thin territory. If the move doesn’t honor these levels and vomits through them, we could be targeting the bottom of the range and other targets.
Today's Targets: The target I have for today is the 73 level, and the bottom of the range I gave you is around 34. If we break out of the bottom of the range (which is unlikely given the end of the quarter), that’s our lower-end target.
Stay green, my friends! To learn more about our group, go to microstrader.com.
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