Wed AM Briefing Preparing For Our Emini Trading Room 09/04/2024
Preparing ES & NQ Traders
For Our Emini and Micros Futures Trading Room
Rumble Video Link:
RESOURCES:For Our Emini and Micros Futures Trading Room
TRANSCRIPT:
Welcome ES MES Futures Traders
Good morning, everybody! Happy Wednesday, September 4th. Let's get into it. "See that you walk carefully, not as fools but as wise men, making the most of the day because the days are evil." That's a good one! You've got to stay alert. The days are evil, but you walk carefully as a wise man. Trade carefully as a wise man.
Alright, let's get into the AM briefing, brought to you by micrtrader.com, number 253, where together we trade.
Tip of The Day
Trend days—those rare days when we just trend all day long—are a test day for you and your system. It's a test day for your ability to counter trade or be with the trend. There are counter trades one can take as price bounces in both directions. We’re going to talk about that. Yesterday was a test day; how did you do?
A few reminders: in the description, there are timestamps if you want to skip ahead. I also have a link to a chart showing where my focus is. If you're interested in the AM briefing archives, you can go back in time on my website at micrtrader.com. If you're a new member, please earn your badges. That's where you get personalized one-on-one coaching or feedback if you're grasping these levels. Please make sure you earn your badges; you paid for the right to have your charts graded by me. If you're interested in joining us live, check us out at micrtrader.com, grab a Zoom pass, like, share, and subscribe.
Yesterday's Review: Detailed
Yesterday was yellow; I almost made News Drivers yesterday red. Why? It was the first day after a holiday. Make a mental note—how well did you enjoy yesterday’s price action? Maybe the day after a holiday, you dial it down or skip it completely, as I recommended. Today is Wednesday; I consider this a Green Day, the last tradable day of the week. The JOLTS job report comes out 30 minutes after the opening. Tomorrow is the day before nonfarm payroll, and the next day is nonfarm payroll. Next week is the CPI, followed by the likely imprisonment of a former president. FC, I think Goldman Sachs is calling for a half a percentage point hike twice before the end of the year. How would that make the markets behave? I have no clue. We will trade the levels as they develop. If we get a clean, clear, crisp level, especially if we're trending, we take those trades. If you'd like to learn how we do it, come join us.
Let’s take a peek. This is a screenshot at the end of the day yesterday, just because I knew I needed to update my strong levels. When we opened up, we were in this strong range. Warning shot to the Bulls—my focus in the description was here at 5610. The strong range I probably didn’t show in the AM briefing was this level. Watch out below, and that certainly turned out to be true. I had my focus on this level when I created the strong levels this weekend and wanted to see if we could make it there. Once we got here, I posted in the group where our next targets were, and I was kind of hoping we got to 5510. We got there overnight, which was cool. I did take that long twice; we’ll talk about that in a minute.
Strong levels worked out really well once again. This is an indicator you get when you are a member of our group. When I need to update it, I do, and I updated it last night. If you're a member, grab that update. Remember, the version number of your strong levels is the date, so make sure you’ve got the newest version. In fact, I don’t even know if I have the newest version on this computer because I do it on my laptop.
Trading Analysis
Let’s turn on the candles, my sessions, and this because what we always talk about first is how we traded yesterday. Yesterday morning, when we got on here, I said, “Okay, if you made me draw an overnight trend line, what’s the overnight trend line?” I drew that line right there, this initial one here, and then overnight, well, we came through, and this was a strong range. In fact, I can probably turn that on; that was a strong range there that we stayed in. Now, let’s get to the opening here and talk about this.
One trade I should have taken, although it didn’t actually hit the level, was when we lost this, and we came back. This wick right here almost got to the opening. I talked about that trade, but it didn’t get there, so I didn’t take it. Boy, that would have been a nice entry, right? Because literally, you could have played perfect chess, and you would have stayed short all day long. I want to give a shout-out to Justin, a member of our group, who not only had one 50-pointer but two 50-pointers yesterday. Congratulations, Justin—absolutely fantastic!
I should have been in this short here; I should have front-ran it because this strong range right here—I’m so sorry—this strong range right here had a warning shot to the Bulls. Now, there’s a reason why I was a little reluctant. I should have done it, but I’d have had to front-run it. We had this well-established range here, so I’m going to turn that on and off. What it is up here in the red is where it’s better to be looking for a short, and boy, that would have still been in the red. Then we were here in the middle, and then we came to the bottom of this range. Now, as we get into the green area of this range, it is better to be looking for longs than shorts.
Historically, it is better to look for longs than shorts. As we were in the middle, I thought, "I can’t trade in here. I just don’t want to trade in the middle of the range." Then we got into the green area. Now, if I’d been short, I’d be managing the short, but I was not going to initiate a new short here, and I was not going to initiate a short in here. You don’t need every move to have a really good day. I’m going to show you the move I did get.
So, I missed all of that. I just watched it and said, "I’m not taking it. I’m not trading that. I’m not going to trade the middle, and I’m not going to go short in my green area because historically, that doesn’t pay." Look what happened when we got to the bottom: it had a nice move back up. Then we got down into this next strong range, which was "Watch Out Below."
Now, when we were live, we knew we were parabolic, and I told the guys, "Don’t counter this. I can’t go long either. Why? Because I’m in a parabolic move to the south." Then we based out, broke this parabolic, and when we resumed the down move, this parabolic line went from here to here. We are still in a parabolic move. I recommend you don’t counter parabolic moves except at high-time frame locations. Small, never making things worse, never making things worse—that was the test yesterday. If you went long, did you make things worse? That was the key. You could have gone long. I went long several times. I could show you screenshots from my Discord, but I chose not to; it’s just too much.
I went long here, at the bottom of this range, and the trade that paid me yesterday was this short here and adding here all the way to here. I got out, and then I was actually in this long. I was up really nicely here, and normally, I play a little more perfect chess. I exited here, told the group, and I believe I took eight extra points of profit just by taking my profit here at this strong level. Then I was going to use that eight points for an entry long against this. Well, I took the full loss. I took the eight points—oh well, no big deal. This made my day; this paid. I wasn’t giving it back for sure. I was literally just using the eight points of profit here and using that. That was basically it for me.
We were still cheering for Justin. Justin was still short from here and did very well. We were hoping it got to 5510 for what I would have considered full profit, but it didn’t actually get there. That is our analysis of yesterday. The play was short or flat all day long, period, end of story. If you countered, keep it small, if at all, at a high-time frame location—never making things worse, never making things worse. In the overnight, we finally made it down to this next strong level, 5510. Look how well we played with 5510 here. I’m pretty proud of that level; I think that level has played out very, very well. There we are in the overnight.
Today's Game Plan
Let’s turn off the strong levels and go to a high-time frame chart now. Let’s take a peek at this—where are we? My goodness, let’s pull that in. Let’s go to trend lines here. This trend line here is broken, which also aids in our analysis of the day. Let’s go back to a three-minute chart here for a second. Where did we break that trend line? We broke it here in this strong range that we had. Tap-dancing on the backside of it—I can’t tell you how many times I wanted to go short in here, but I just did not want to go short in the green area. I would have had to have gone short back here. It wasn’t worth the risk of a reversal to take a short here when I should have already been short here or here. That’s just playing good chess.
So, here we are this morning, and we’re going to analyze where we’re at. We’re going to get rid of this level here. We’re going to zoom in on a daily chart. Look at that beautiful trend line; there’s no room for error there. Look where we are at this morning. We are back inside a high-time frame range. Let’s pull this down to a 60-minute chart. Let’s make this big enough for you to see it. Let’s turn on the candles here, and let’s turn on that range. We are back inside this. Look at how we’ve tap-danced on the bottom of it, broke through, and now we’re back in. Now, remember what this range is.
Let’s turn off the candles, and let’s turn off the sessions for just a second. This red line is 41.46. Why is that line there? I don’t care what happens as long as we are trading on the north side of that red line because this is the daily trend line, and it’s holding price up. I don’t care about anything else. Everything else is noise. All I care about is we’re holding that. There’s that 41.46. Now, let’s turn on the candles again and pull this over and talk about this. We’ve been down here before. We’ve got a very clear potential trade setting up. I need to pull up my economic calendar for you.
Here’s the most important part of this analysis today. In fact, I’m going to type it in our little text tool here because it’s the most important thing I can tell you. "We are at a high-time frame location." I should put that in all caps, like the yelling we’re used to on the internet. That means your trades need to be meaningful, your size needs to be meaningful, and you need to stick with it. We’re going to take a peek at the targets here in just a second.
Let’s get to the targets right now. I’m going to put the targets for the day up. Let me adjust the screen so you can see them. Target one for the day is 5790, and I’ll show you why that’s important in a minute. Target two for the day is 5930. Those are your two main targets today if we can stay above this level. Let me show you why those targets matter. We’ve been there before, right? Look at this. This is the same daily chart, and I’ll turn the candles off for a second.
Look where we are. What do I want to talk about right here? Look how clear this move was back here on 12.28. If we’re below this, all bets are off. We’re going to go down to this next strong level down in here, but look at the potential above this. There’s a lot of potential above this. Let’s get this on a 60-minute chart again. We have room to 5790, 5930 today.
Again, we’re at a high-time frame location. That means it’s meaningful. Here’s what we’ve done overnight. The job today is to see if we can make a meaningful bottom and take it north. If you are not trading to the north, you are trading a counter trade in the context of the day. Your targets are these. My line in the sand today, where I will be looking for longs, is at 5646. If I see weakness at 5646, I’ll look to go long. As long as we stay above 5460, I’m happy. That’s your AM briefing. I’ll see you live trading today, starting in 30 minutes. Let’s have a good day.
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