Wed AM Briefing Preparing For Our Emini Trading Room 10/02/2024
Preparing ES & NQ Traders
For Our Emini and Micros Futures Trading Room
Futures traders gathered for another day of trading as October starts with renewed volatility. Key news events today include early market announcements and crude inventory data, impacting trade plans for the week. The Dow's movement remains tight, hinting at further market consolidation, with bulls retaining the upper hand at broader levels. Traders are advised to be cautious of high-risk trading environments coming Thursday and Friday due to significant economic announcements, like nonfarm payroll.
For Our Emini and Micros Futures Trading Room
RESOURCES:
TRANSCRIPT:
Welcome ES MES Futures Traders
Good morning, everyone! Happy hump day and happy Wednesday. Today is October 2nd, the second day of the month. What an eventful first day of the month we had yesterday, as it looks like volatility may have returned.
Today's Quote
"I love this quote: 'Come close to God, and God will come close to you.'"
AM Briefing #2073
Welcome to the AM Briefing #2073, brought to you by MicrosTrader.com, where together we trade better. We are an ES MES Futures trading room, and we invite you to check us out at MicrosTrader.com. Below this briefing, you’ll find timestamps and links to an archive of previous AM briefings. If you decide to become a member, earn your badges; you’re paying for it, and I provide feedback and guidance to make sure you’re marking your levels correctly. To join, grab yourself a Zoom pass, or join our YouTube Live session—we did one yesterday and will do another next Tuesday, in six days. If you like what we’re doing, like, share, comment, subscribe, and consider becoming a member.
Tip of the Day
You don’t need every move. Be patient and wait for your trade—this is what we'll see illustrated in the chart shortly.
News Drivers
Today is Wednesday, and we have some key news events. We expect a bolder event at a somewhat unusual time before the market opens, and crude inventories will be released during trading hours. Today is likely the last "Green Day" of the week; Thursday and Friday are "Level 10" days. If you wanted a nice 4-day weekend, today might be the last good trading opportunity. All eyes are on Friday's nonfarm payroll number, and tomorrow is typically high-risk. Friday will also be high risk—if you choose to trade during these conditions, be warned that there are sharks in the water and rip tides are present. Be aware of the increased risks.
Yesterday's Review
The first thing we like to do is review yesterday. I'll give a brief summary, but you can find a more detailed one in our recorded live stream. Yesterday, I captured the key moments of the morning, particularly a move down followed by a position I took, which yielded 25 points. However, I marked it as a "20-point" move in our group because of our leaderboard rules, which only allowed me to report it as such. At one point during the trade, I had it locked at 30 points, but adjusted for more room, hoping for a further move through VWAP (Volume Weighted Average Price) in case of a V-shaped day. It ended up pulling back to 25 points, which was still a good outcome as the market retraced afterward.
I also gave out the 73.50 level and the 34.50 level. I noted in the group that if the 73.50 level was breached, we would probably reach the lower level, which happened yesterday. The Bears couldn't achieve this on Monday, but did so on Tuesday. I was prepared to enter with one contract and had planned for an additional contract deeper at the 19-level. It only triggered one contract, and the trade executed perfectly.
ES Chart: Overnight & Scenarios
Looking at the chart overnight, we see how we've been balancing within a strong range. Yesterday’s levels were also live in the session, and Monday saw a warning move just a bit beyond VWAP, leading to a 65-point short squeeze. Yesterday, we moved down to the next key level, which I usually refer to as moving from "strong" to "strong." The market tends to follow through well on these significant levels. I was hoping the London session might break yesterday's low to offer a potential long position before the AM briefing, but it didn't happen.
Overnight, we remained in the lower distribution of yesterday's range without further declines. This level is what I call the "bull-bear line," in place since September 24th. Above this line, I favor longs; below it, shorts. Ideally, we’d see the price move lower, find support at the next strong level, and rally. At this point, I’m cautious about taking shorts above this level, as such moves often result in short squeezes. If you’re in the group, consider marking this on your chart as a reminder: "Careful with shorts above 73.50."
Indices
Yesterday, the Dow Jones showed an inside day, with back-to-back green candles. It appears that the market is winding up tightly. Currently, we’re all in the lower distribution of the range and around the Point of Control (POC). Overnight selling hasn't continued, and we’re consolidating in the lower half of the distribution. In a larger sense, the Bulls are still in control. If we drop below 34, it could become interesting. Today’s key levels remain the same: 73.50 (be careful with shorts above) and 34.50 (the bull-bear line). If we see a large sell-off, the 34-level would be a reasonable target, but it could be a very challenging day to trade.
MORE INFORMATION:
Website: https://MicrosTrader.com
YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@microstrader
Comments
Post a Comment