Thu ES MES Micros Technical Analysis 12/12/2024

Preparing ES Emini & MES Micros Traders
For Our Emini and Micros Futures Trading Room



On December 12th, traders navigated markets amidst post-CPI volatility, preparing for PPI data and year-end conditions. The trading session emphasized discipline, particularly when counter-trading, urging minimal risk and tight stop-losses. Key market levels, including IB Low and 3750, served as pivot points, with bulls holding an edge in early trends. Amid potential chop, traders leaned on meticulous strategies to exploit high-probability setups. RESOURCES:
            
▶️ Free "Futures Foundations Course"             
▶️ Membership Options      
▶️Youtube Community Updates             
▶️ Website for ES MES Trading Room (Back Up)


TRANSCRIPT:

Welcome ES MES Futures Traders

Good Morning and Daily Verse

Good Morning, Everyone!
Happy Thursday, December 12th, the day after CPI carnage.

"Behold, the days are coming," says the Lord, "that I will raise to David a branch of righteousness; a King shall reign and prosper and execute judgment and righteousness in the earth."

This verse is a clear reference to the birth of Jesus Christ, with the "King" capitalized to signify His divinity.

Daily AM Briefing

Welcome to the AM Briefing, brought to you by MicrosTrader.com, where together we trade better.

Episode #322 of our ES/MES Futures Trading Room is here to help you find high-probability trades in the market.

Tip of the Day

Rules Over Greed

  • Avoid greed when counter-trading.
  • Counter-trade small if at all.
  • Never press your luck, move your stop-loss, or add to a losing trade.
  • Prioritize discipline to avoid compounding mistakes.

News Drivers

Today is PPI day, releasing one hour before the market opens. As a group, we’ll go live 30 minutes before the open for our daily mental training session.

  • Key Events Ahead:
  • Contract rollover in progress.
  • FOMC and OPEC meetings next week.
  • End-of-month and year-end volatility expected.

After yesterday's strong open-to-close vertical move, today could be a consolidation or a "take it all back" type of day.

Big Picture Overview

  • CPI Recap: Yesterday saw a predictable CPI range day.
  • Trendline Analysis: Recent parabolic moves have been retraced to test strong levels, including a backtest of the trendline.
  • Strategy: Stay alert for price reactions to significant levels.

Yesterday's Review

Despite hopes for a deeper pullback, the market rallied off strong levels. Trading involved quick, small wins:

  • Morning Trades: A short at key levels provided modest gains.
  • Afternoon Trades: Tight stop management led to small wins and losses, emphasizing counter-trading discipline.

ES Chart - Current Market Context

The market is currently battling key levels.

  • Short-Term Scenarios:
  • A move below the IB Low may trigger a broader retracement.
  • Resistance at 3750 serves as a pivotal zone for potential longs.

Bull-Bear Scorecard

  • Bulls: Yesterday's range, indices positioning, and bull-bear lines favor the bulls.
  • Bears: Trendlines, VWAP, and overnight halfback lean bearish.

Indices Overview

  • Divergence: Dow and Russell have decoupled from ES and NQ, indicating mixed momentum.
  • Outlook: A risk of chop persists, with possible upward continuation for ES and NQ.

Key Scenarios

  1. Bullish Case: A breakout above the overnight high may signal continuation.
  2. Bearish Case: A breakdown below the IB Low could target deeper levels.

Conclusion

Today’s environment demands Level 10 Trading Discipline.
The greatest risk lies in choppy conditions, so focus on precise execution and maintaining composure.

Stay Green, My Friends!

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