Fri ES MES Micros Technical Analysis 02/14/2025

Preparing ES Emini & MES Micros Traders
For Our Emini and Micros Futures Trading Room



The futures market is approaching a pivotal moment as traders navigate a volatile Friday ahead of a three-day weekend. With the S&P 500 nearing all-time highs and a significant trendline break in play, bullish momentum remains strong, but risk management is critical. Next week presents multiple challenges, including a post-holiday Tuesday and options expiration on Friday, signaling potential turbulence. Traders are advised to remain cautious, scale back risk, and carefully plan their strategy for the days ahead. RESOURCES:
            
▶️ Free "Futures Foundations Course"             
▶️ Membership Options      
▶️Youtube Community Updates             
▶️ Website for ES MES Trading Room (Back Up)


TRANSCRIPT:

Welcome ES MES Futures Traders

Welcome to the AM briefing video presented by MicrosTrader.com, where together we trade better!

Good morning, everybody, and Happy Valentine’s Day! I hope you're prepared for your loved ones. Some people don’t celebrate it, but it doesn’t cost anything to write a little note, draw a picture, or do something special today.

This Week’s Scripture

Matthew 22:37
"He said to them, ‘Love the Lord your God with all your heart, with all your soul, and with all your mind.’"

Tip of the Day – Friday Rules in Full Effect

It’s Tip of the Day Friday, which means Friday rules are in full effect. Never give your week back. Just don’t do it. Don’t go into the weekend demoralized because of a bad trade on Friday.

We took out last week’s high and are approaching a major trend line. This is not an ideal trade location. We've had a 100-point run-up from Wednesday’s trade, which I chose not to take, but that could have been a 100-point runner. Don't give your week back.

If you’re green for the week, refuse to end in the red. Consider reducing your daily loss limit or risking only a small portion of your weekly profit. For example, if you caught the 100-point runner, you might say, “I’m willing to give up only 10 points of that.”

Perhaps today is the day to scale back on funded accounts. Ask yourself:

  • Do I only trade evals today?
  • If I have 10 funded accounts, should I only trade two of them?
  • How can I de-leverage on a high-risk Friday?

If you enjoy what we do here, please like, subscribe, and consider becoming a News Drivers member.

Today’s News Drivers & Next Week’s Preview

Today’s Key Economic Reports:

📊 Retail Sales at 8:30 AM Eastern

Next Week’s Market Events:

  • Monday – Holiday (No Trading in Our Group)
  • Tuesday – Day After Holiday (Caution: Often a Poor Trading Day)
  • Wednesday – FOMC Minutes in the Afternoon (Minor Impact)
  • Thursday – Unemployment Claims (No Major Concern)
  • Friday – PMI Numbers & Existing Home Sales
  • Next Friday – Options Expiration (OPEX)

Since next Friday is OPEX, we must also consider Thursday (the day before OPEX), which can create unusual market movement. Many traders mistakenly think next week will be a “normal” week, but in reality, it has several landmines.

Yesterday’s Review

Before reviewing yesterday’s market, let’s go back to CPI. I pulled up a 1-second chart, and you can see a 47-point drop in just 1 second. Additionally, there were 13 points where no transactions were recorded.

⚠️ This is why you must know when NOT to trade.

Morning Session: Bulls in Control

When we went live on Zoom, I repeatedly pointed out:

“The bulls are in control. If you short, do it small—if at all.”

Afternoon Session: Breakout to the Upside

After lunch, the market broke out north. If you drill down into the chart, you’ll see it:

  • Bounced off the strong level.
  • Kept climbing with volume imbalances.
  • Once this happens, you CANNOT short.

ES Chart – Where Are We Now?

SPX Near All-Time Highs

  • Yesterday’s SPX high was just 10.5 points away from an all-time high.
  • I have an alert set to notify our group if we break that level.

Trendline Break & Key Levels to Watch

  • The trendline we’ve been tracking has now broken.
  • If we retest and hold above, we target the all-time high.
  • If we fall below 88, that’s the first level where momentum might shift.

Final Thoughts

Trade smart today. Don't let Friday ruin your week. Stick to your risk management plan, and I’ll see my traders live at the top of the hour.

🚀 Stay green, my friends!

To learn more about our group, visit MicrosTrader.com

MORE INFORMATION:

SUMMARY:

  • ✅ Friday Trading Rules – Never give back your weekly profits on Friday. Consider reducing risk by limiting trades or trading smaller size.
  • ✅ Next Week’s Landmines – Monday is a holiday, Tuesday is post-holiday (often a bad trading day), and Friday is options expiration (OPEX), making the week riskier than usual.
  • ✅ Yesterday’s Market Action – Bulls remained in control throughout the day. Shorting opportunities were limited and required aggressive management.
  • ✅ SPX & ES Key Levels – SPX is nearing an all-time high. The trendline break suggests further upside, but 88 is a key level to watch for a potential pullback.
  • ✅ Final Trading Plan – Look for longs above the trendline and shorts below the halfback level. Always trade with a plan and manage risk accordingly.


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