ES MES Futures Trading: Key Levels, Tips, Technical Analysis. Monday "AM Briefing"

Preparing ES Emini & MES Micros Traders
For Our Emini and Micros Futures Trading Room



The E-mini S&P 500 futures market is showing signs of bullish momentum after a powerful 100-point short squeeze, maintaining gains overnight and positioning itself near key resistance levels. Traders are closely monitoring upcoming economic reports, including Manufacturing PMI and Friday’s Non-Farm Payroll (NFP) data, which could influence market direction. While some investors speculate whether this rally is merely a short-covering event or the start of a sustained breakout, price action suggests that liquidity zones and trend-line structures will dictate the next move. With earnings season underway and volatility expected, traders are exercising patience, avoiding premature shorts, and waiting for confirmation before entering new positions. RESOURCES:
            
▶️ Free "Futures Foundations Course"             
▶️ Membership Options      
▶️Youtube Community Updates             
▶️ Website for ES MES Trading Room (Back Up)


TRANSCRIPT:

Welcome ES MES Futures Traders

AM Briefing Video

Presented by MicrosTrader.com—where together, we trade better!

Good morning, everybody! Happy first week of March. It’s Monday, March 3rd, so let’s get into it.

This Week’s Scripture

Ephesians 4:32

"And be kind and compassionate to one another, forgiving one another, just as God also forgave you in Christ."

As I mentioned in the weekend briefing on Saturday, also be kind, compassionate, and forgiving to yourself.

Tip of The Day for MES Futures Traders

Welcome to the AM briefing. Today's tip of the day:

After a monster short squeeze, I can’t short this market, but I’m also not going to chase longs. We will trade our levels as they develop in the RTH (Regular Trading Hours) session. Patience and waiting will be key today. We’ll discuss this more when we get to the chart.

There's a link in the description to a video on six lessons for trading big moves—you might want to check that out.

Today's News Drivers

Fifteen minutes after the market opens, we have a Manufacturing PMI (Final Number) report. Then, 30 minutes after the open, we’ll get both Manufacturing PMI and Manufacturing Prices.

Earnings This Week

This week, there are lots of retail earnings reports along with PMIs and job data. Of course, the market will be focused on Friday’s Non-Farm Payroll (NFP) report.

A quick look at March seasonality suggests a complex price environment. The beginning of March may still see some downward movement before a potential strong rally into April.

ES Chart – Where Are We At?

Looking at the daily trend lines, we see a high-timeframe range. On Friday, we hit a six-month POC (Point of Control), and in our group, we were trying to go long. Unfortunately, I missed the 100-point easiest trade of your life move in the late afternoon. But that’s trading!

Now, we are breaking above a key trend line. The best-case scenario for bulls is unfolding:

  • Bounced off the bottom of the range
  • 100-point short squeeze maintained overnight
  • No significant pullback under key levels
  • Now making new highs

When the market opened last night, I was hoping for a deeper dip to create long opportunities, but that didn't happen. Instead, we are in the middle of a super high-timeframe range.

Key Trading Questions

Is this move just another lower high in a downtrend?

  • Previous rallies have turned into lower highs.
  • If this is just another lower high, we could roll over.
  • However, if bulls continue to push, we could head toward the top of the range and break out.

Trading Plan:

  • I can't short yet—I follow specific rules for shorting in an uptrend.
  • I'm not chasing longs—waiting for consolidation and base formation.
  • Watching liquidity zones—if we form a base, I will participate in the breakout move.

Indices – Broad Market Overview

Looking at the broader market, we see:

  • ✅ Above yesterday’s high – bullish!
  • ✅ Watching strong RTH levels
  • ✅ Bull-bear line in an interesting spot

Typically, overnight moves get reversed in RTH. We will watch if the same pattern repeats today.

ES Chart – Part II

Currently, we are in the middle of a high-timeframe range. The big question:

  • Is this a short-covering rally that will fade?
  • Or will it build momentum to push higher?

Right now, we are in no man’s land—not at an edge. It’s better to wait for a real trade location before making any big decisions.

Additionally:

  • Thursday’s POC aligned with the six-month POC—no surprise there!
  • Bitcoin made an incredible move Friday—I had an order in for Micro Bitcoin but didn’t hold over the weekend.

Final Thoughts

  • Bulls have the edge after defending key levels and pushing higher.
  • If we can’t break higher, watch for a move back to POC or deeper liquidity zones.
  • Stay patient and trade the levels.
  • Live trading starts 30 minutes before market open—join us!

Stay green, my friends! To learn more about our group, visit MicrosTrader.com.

MORE INFORMATION:

SUMMARY:

  • ✅ Bullish Setup Developing The ES futures market saw a 100-point short squeeze and is holding gains, indicating a strong bull case.
  • ✅ Market Drivers This Week Key economic reports include Manufacturing PMI and Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) on Friday, along with significant retail earnings releases.
  • ✅ Trend and Price Levels to Watch We are in a high-timeframe range, and traders should focus on trend breaks and liquidity zones to determine whether the move continues higher.
  • ✅ Trading Strategy: No Shorts Yet Shorting is not an option until clear downside confirmation occurs. Meanwhile, chasing longs is risky without consolidation or pullbacks.
  • ✅ Live Trading & Market Briefings Daily AM Briefing at 9:00 AM ET on Zoom, live trading throughout the week, and a weekend briefing every Saturday. Stay tuned for updates!


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