Preparing ES Emini & MES Micros Traders
For Our Emini and Micros Futures Trading Room

Traders in the ES and MES futures markets are navigating volatile conditions, with price action resembling unpredictable music—sometimes harmonious, other times chaotic. Today’s market review highlights a trend of lower highs and lower lows, signaling continued bearish control. The discussion underscores the importance of recognizing when not to trade, particularly in aggressive, choppy conditions. Traders are advised to avoid the final hour of trading, a period historically riddled with losses. As bulls and bears battle for control, strategy adjustments remain key to staying profitable in an ever-changing market. RESOURCES:

▶️ Free "Futures Foundations Course"

▶️ Membership Options

▶️Youtube Community Updates

▶️ Website for ES MES Trading Room (Back Up)

TRANSCRIPT:

Welcome ES MES Futures Traders

Welcome to the AM briefing video presented by MicrosTrader.com, where together we trade better.

Good morning, everybody! Good morning! Let's hit this week's scripture:

Ephesians 4:32 - "And be kind and compassionate to one another, forgiving one another, just as God also forgave you in Christ." Amen.

Tip of the Day

Today's tip of the day relates to yesterday’s tip. I finished with the idea that price action is like music—you either like country, or you don’t. You either like heavy metal, or you don’t.

Well, did you like the musical selection the market played yesterday? If you didn’t, how can you recognize it in the future and just call it a day? It’s okay if you don’t take a trade today. That was also part of yesterday's tip—it is okay if you don’t take a trade. It really, really is.

News Drivers

It’s Wednesday, and we have some employment and PMI data coming out. Tomorrow is Thursday, affectionately known as the day before NFP. What does your trade plan say about trading the day before NFP? Then, Friday is NFP itself—what does your trade plan say about trading NFP?

We will be live for the NFP candle on Friday, and who knows, we might live stream this afternoon on YouTube. So, make sure you subscribe and hit that notification bell.

Trump’s Schedule & Earnings

Looking at Trump’s schedule today, not much is happening—just a press conference following his speech last night. Seems like a bit of a rest day for him.

As for earnings today, it's Wednesday, so you can take a peek, but nothing seems significant enough to cause any major market movement.

Yesterday’s Review

Let's look at the chart and talk about yesterday’s price action. I will do a candle-by-candle replay.

For me, trading a three-minute chart where each candle is 15 points (which turns red in our group by default) is not enjoyable. The huge candle threshold is currently set at 20 points, but I am considering tweaking the indicator to make 15 points the default.

At the market open, we saw a series of 15-point candles—one after another. By the third 15-point candle, it was clear that this was not my "music." As I said yesterday, this was like heavy metal music blaring next to a speaker. Seeing three consecutive 15-point candles should raise a red flag—trading small, if at all, was the way to go.

James Paul mentioned his leverage metrics last night, and I thought it was a great point—his metrics don’t account for trading in 15-point candles because it's just too dangerous. If you decide to trade in such conditions, one loss and you should be done.

Final Hour Trading

In our group, we don’t recommend trading the final hour, especially the last 30 minutes. Too many losses occur during this time, based on our in-depth tracking and analysis. When I mapped out a trade in the morning, it materialized beautifully off the VWAP. But later in the day, we saw what we call the “Power Hour” or the “Sour Hour,” which is just not ideal for trading.

If you must trade during this time, be extremely careful. I prefer to let the Power Hour finish and then reassess the price action.

ES Chart - Where Are We At?

Looking at the 30-minute chart, we see a pattern of lower highs and lower lows—indicating that bears are still in control.

When the bears control, longs should be small, if at all. If you take a losing counter-trade, you should be done. The same applies when bulls control—if you take a losing short, stop trading.

Trends are hard to break. If we get over an RTH high, hold above it, and close above it, we might shift from bear control to balance. After a few days of balance, bulls might regain control.

Trading When Bulls Control vs. Bears Control

Upon reflection, I prefer trading when bulls control the market. The price action feels much more accommodating, with fewer double and triple taps. When bears control, things feel sloppier.

Think of price action like a genre of music. If bulls control, that’s my preferred genre—let’s say, rock and roll. Within that genre, my favorite band would be the Rolling Stones, which represents my ideal trade setup.

Knowing what conditions suit your trading style can help you avoid unnecessary risks. If bears control, consider dialing it down. When bulls control, it may be the time to be more active.

We might be live on YouTube later this afternoon—stay green, my friends! To learn more about our group, visit MicrosTrader.com.