ES & MES Futures Trading – Key Levels & Technical Tips Monday

Preparing ES Emini & MES Micros Traders
For Our Emini and Micros Futures Trading Room



In today’s AM Briefing, MicrosTrader.com cautioned traders against engaging in Monday’s overheated market following a significant overnight rally, instead urging focus on Tuesday’s CPI release. Episode #425 underscored critical technical levels like 5475 and the 2025 open, positioning them as key bull/bear lines. The spiritual tone, set by a verse from Joel, encouraged emotional discipline amid heightened volatility. With the weekly range already reached before the session began, traders were advised to resist FOMO and prioritize prudence. RESOURCES:
            
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TRANSCRIPT:

AM Briefing - Episode #425

Date: Monday, May 12
Brought to you by: MicrosTrader.com
Location: ES/MES Futures Trading Room

Introduction

Good morning, everyone! Welcome to the AM Briefing, brought to you by MicrosTrader.com—where together, we trade better. Today marks Episode #425 of our morning series, and I’ll do my best to keep it to 10 minutes unless something critical arises.

Scripture of the Week

“Tear your hearts, not just your clothes, and return to the Lord your God. For He is gracious and compassionate, slow to anger, rich in faithful love, and He relents from sending disaster.”

— Joel 2:13

Tip of the Day

Don't be a fader trader.
Yes, you’ve likely seen the market already—please, avoid fading it. We'll dive deeper into this with today’s chart.

Market Sentiment & Outlook

Tomorrow is CPI day. I’ve marked it as a green trading day. But today? After a ridiculous gap up and a massive pre-market move, if I’m honest, my advice is: Don’t trade today. Come back tomorrow for the CPI candle.

We’ll be live on YouTube and Zoom tomorrow for the event. Today, my expectations are incredibly low.

News Brief

President Trump has a press conference today with the Secretary of Health and Human Services. Following that, he departs on an international trip, starting with London and heading to Saudi Arabia tomorrow.

Chart Analysis

Let’s talk technicals. That 5475 level we highlighted? It delivered a massive breakout. As long as we stay above that, my suggestion remains the same: look for longs only. Avoid shorting from here.

We saw key trendlines—first a 30-minute trendline, then a parabolic trendline—both broken in a strong upward move. Honestly, this market move is wild. If you’re already long, great. If not, it’s okay to wait.

Avoid the temptation to "fade the gap." While it might fill, today is not ideal for entering shorts.

Key Levels to Watch

  • IB High: Mark this as the gap-up reference point. We moved 175 points to the upside.
  • Liberation Tariff Day High: Monthly/weekly high; worth keeping on your chart.
  • RTH and Weekly Highs: Mark these for awareness.
  • 2025 Opening Price: This is the yearly bull/bear line.

The 5475 level continues to serve as the daily bull/bear line. No interest in shorting above this level today.

FOMO Warning

Don’t let FOMO get you. Anything could’ve flipped the market this weekend—news from Switzerland, U.S.-China tensions, etc. It could have been a huge gap down just as easily. Trade prudently.

Weekly Range Hit Early

We’ve already hit the weekly expected move—125 points—in the overnight session. That’s pretty significant.

I’ll keep these levels marked on my chart for future reference. They may serve as strong reaction zones.

Final Thoughts

Are we all on the same train? Choo choo!

Today's VWAPs are significantly skewed. The last thing I recommend today is to be a fader trader. Stay disciplined.

See you all 30 minutes before the market opens for our mental training session.

Stay green, my friends.

MORE INFORMATION:

Wall Street Journal-Style Summary

In a post-gap-up market, the MicrosTrader.com team advised traders to avoid impulsive trades and focus on the critical CPI report coming Tuesday. Episode #425 highlights key resistance levels and strategic long-only zones after an overnight session breached the weekly range. The callout from Joel 2:13 set a thoughtful tone, encouraging patience and reflection in volatile conditions. As the team gears up for CPI day, caution remains the dominant strategy amid broad upward momentum.



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