Fri AM Briefing: Daily Trade Plan and Price Action Zones for S&P Futures

In Friday’s AM briefing, episode 450, the host emphasized caution amid volatile market conditions, quoting scripture for emotional grounding. Next week is flagged as a high-risk “Level 10” environment due to rollover, FOMC, and OPEX events. A previously published battle plan successfully identified a key bounce level following overnight news-driven volatility. The trader stressed the importance of adapting to market character shifts and maintaining discipline around entry levels and DOM usage.

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📄 TRANSCRIPT

Opening Remarks

Good morning, everybody! Welcome to the AM briefing on Friday the 13th — episode number 450, a beautiful, big, round number. So, good morning again. What a night it’s been.

"Haven’t I commanded you to be strong and courageous? Do not be afraid or discouraged, for the Lord your God is with you wherever you go."

Stand back. Sometimes, price will move in such a violent way that you simply have to step aside. Don’t launch your DOM; keep it closed. If you don't want to trade it, don't. You really need a strong battle plan to trade that kind of market. Sometimes it's best to just stay out of the way and watch in fascination — for the love of price action. You don’t have to take a trade.

Rollover Metrics

The updated rollover metrics show the June contract giving up a bit and the December contract gaining some. We’ll see how those numbers settle by the end of the day on Friday, June 13th.

Next week is a Level 10 week — rollover, FOMC, and OPEX. Trade at your own caution. If you're newly funded or doing a cash account challenge, you might want to sit this one out.

Essay Format Questions

What is my trade plan for next week?
Am I willing to trade Monday?

Next Week's Trade Outlook

Monday looks like a tradable day. You've got retail sales on Tuesday morning — that's tradable. Wednesday morning is technically tradable; the afternoon is not. Thursday, the day after FOMC and the day before options expiration — not tradable. Friday is option expiration — also not tradable.

So at least half the week is a solid "don’t trade this." Your mileage may vary.

Streaming and Community Posts

I will be streaming this morning, and we can trade this together. If you're not a member and you want to join the stream, check us out. I haven’t scheduled it yet, but as soon as this is done, I’ll post it. If you subscribe and hit the notification bell, you’ll be alerted.

Last night’s battle plan was published on the YouTube Community post. If you’ve never checked those out, I’m using them more and more to share information. It’s kind of like being in Discord, I guess.

Chart Review

Last night, before the move happened, this was our trade plan. I told the group: This just feels much more complicated tonight. Yesterday was super easy — longs above, shorts below. As you know, I participated in that short. I got out at 50% of the move somewhere in there.

Once again, I felt it was long above, shorts below. There were a few places I might have been interested in a long, but price actually had to do what I outlined. There’s no risk in taking a trade on the first three scenarios — because they didn’t happen. But then this did happen: we got that monster news drop.

We came exactly to the arrow with a fantastic bounce. I missed the drop — my wife and I were walking. I got back just as that bounce was happening. I did take a long in the LEAP account off this level on the bounce. If you dropped into smaller timeframes, that’s what it looked like.

Got a piece of it — not much, one contract — and then stepped aside.

Battle Plan #2 said if we lose the bull/bear line — be careful below. If we get back above it, that’s a long setup.

Execution Details and Trade Psychology

I went long off that position here. I was waiting for a clean move above and then a pullback — I took it. The bears did all the work overnight, and now they’re giving it up.

One of the things I try to be really good at is: great bears know where the bulls are, and great bulls know where the bears are. When you get a sense of that, and you draw the level and price reacts there — you take the trade with confidence.

The bears did a decent job last night, but if you're in my group, you heard me say: “The bears can't create a backside.” I kept noting that — “That’s interesting.” Then we got that last little push. I was staring at the back of my eyelids at that point — I didn’t see it. We actually went to bed a little later than usual.

Then came this beautiful ladder up. When we reclaimed that level, I went long last night. Then I went long again this morning. We’re back above the bull/bear line. The bears were ahead 15–0 last night — now it’s close to even, maybe even bullish again.

What are the odds of taking back the full move? I don’t know — probably pretty good. And you just want to be in that trade.

When RTH opens, the character of the entire market could change quickly. Manage risk. No reason to give back gains before structure confirms.

Final Thoughts

I’m going to tighten the trade up to capture just a point. Or maybe give it room to do the move. The ultimate target is to get back over that level — the catalyst. That pullback might have been necessary to break above everything. We’ll see.

What do we know? There could be more news. We could dump another 500 points — I don’t know. What I do know is this: we’re going to map out our trades as they develop and take them as they develop.

If you're choosing not to trade today — absolutely nothing wrong with that. Say, “No, thank you.” That’s okay.

I’ll be live 15 minutes before the market opens. We’ll update our charts, map out our trades, and get good. Stay green, my friends.