Friday Jun 27: Today’s Game Plan for Emini & Micro Traders Inside the Room

Friday June 27, 2025

In Friday's AM Briefing, Microtrader.com emphasized a trend-following strategy as the S&P 500 trades at or near all-time highs. Traders were cautioned against attempting to call a top, with the market described as a “northbound train” backed by bullish momentum. Key price levels were outlined for ES and NQ, while risk management rules were reinforced ahead of PCE data and end-of-quarter flows. The format of the AM briefings is also evolving to focus more on forward-looking insights and journaling prompts.
📚 RESOURCES
📄 TRANSCRIPT

Opening Remarks

In today’s Friday AM Briefing from Microtrader.com (Ep 459), the focus is on aligning your trading mindset and strategy with current market conditions—specifically, trading at or near all-time highs. The speaker reinforces the core philosophy: trade with the trend, respond to price levels as they develop, and avoid the urge to predict reversals. It’s about reacting, not predicting.

Core Philosophy: Trade the Trend, Not the Reversal

The speaker opens with a reminder that the biggest trap traders fall into is trying to "call the top" during strong uptrends. Especially when the market is at or near all-time highs, the temptation to short grows, but the probabilities often don’t favor that decision. Instead, traders should stay disciplined and only consider short trades when very specific, rule-based conditions are met.

"One of the reasons why [trading at all-time highs] is very difficult is because a lot of traders will look at the chart and they're trying to find a way—how can I get short for the massive vomit that I just know is going to happen. No, you don't. You don't know that."

Market Context: Northbound Train & All-Time Highs

SPY and ES futures are positioned to open at or above their all-time highs. The momentum is described as a “northbound train,” and the speaker warns against standing in front of it. This strong directional bias demands caution for those considering counter-trend trades.

"SPY is poised... to open up above its all-time high in S&P... What’s the train doing? Choo choo choo—northbound train for sure."

Key Levels: ES 87.25 (warning shot), 797.5 (bull/bear zone), 6250 (psychological), Overnight High (ATH), London High (71), ES 6300, NQ 23,000

Trading Strategy: Risk Management and Setup Filtering

The speaker doubles down on the idea that shorting an uptrend is not worth it unless done with very tight stops and specific rules—only micro shorts with well-defined risk. He also discusses the concept of "no trade" as a valid option, especially on Fridays or when market conditions are less favorable.

Friday’s trading mantra: protect your gains. “Do not give your week back today.” If the trade doesn’t come with a very small stop and isn’t with the trend, it's not worth it. The speaker also mentions being green for the week and wanting to maintain that performance rather than chase uncertain opportunities.

Inventory adjustments may occur around the PCE release, and traders should be cautious but opportunistic if long entries appear in proper zones. If taking a short, the London high is a logical take-profit area, and the use of runners is encouraged due to the lack of significant pullbacks.

Economic Events: PCE & End of Quarter Flows

Today’s key economic events include:

  • PCE data: Released at the bottom of the hour; closely watched by the Fed but usually doesn’t trigger massive reactions.
  • Consumer Sentiment: Reported 30 minutes after the market opens.
  • End of Quarter: Could lead to new capital inflows next week, potentially pushing the bullish trend further.

Looking ahead, next week includes:

  • Tuesday: Jerome Powell speaks.
  • JOLTS and Non-Farm Payroll (NFP) released earlier due to the July 4th holiday.
  • July 4th: Markets closed.

Essay Format Questions

  1. How did you respond to your worst trade today?
  2. How did you do if you were frustrated with the northerly move on trend day, and how do you enjoy or engage with trading at all-time highs?

Microtrader.com Community & Resources

The speaker closes by emphasizing the strength of the Microtrader community—not in individual performance, but in the system and collective discipline. The community trades ES/MES futures live, starting 15 minutes before the open.

He recommends using Trader Meditations for journaling and reflection and reminds everyone that the goal is to stay on the right side of price action using the tools and strategy that have been repeatedly tested.

Top Questions for Friday's Strategy

Q: Should I short the market when ES is at all-time highs?
A: No, unless you have highly specific rules and tight risk controls. The prevailing strategy is to avoid shorting and instead align with the dominant uptrend.

Q: What are the key ES levels to watch today?
A: ES 87.25 and 79.75 define the bull/bear zone. Other levels like 6250, the overnight high, and London High (71) are also important for managing entries and exits.

Q: Why is "no trade" sometimes the best trade?
A: On days with strong directional bias or unclear setups—such as Fridays or economic event days—avoiding a trade protects gains and preserves capital for higher-quality opportunities.

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