Why are intraday and RTH levels more important than historical or overnight levels?

Because they reflect real-time trader participation and volume, especially during regular trading hours where institutional volume is concentrated.

What is the significance of the 15–18 price zone in ES futures?

It was a prior area where longs may have been trapped; upon re-entry, those traders often exit, creating bounce or rejection opportunities.

Should traders take trades during holiday sessions or shortly after?

Caution is advised, as thin volume and incomplete market participation often distort price structure, making clean setups less reliable.

Monday July 7, 2025

In a post-holiday futures market briefing, the trader emphasized the importance of prioritizing intraday and RTH levels over outdated price points, particularly in the ES and MES contracts. He cautioned against early Monday trades following a low-volume long weekend and advised letting the market develop structure first. A bounce off the 15–18 zone aligned with a pre-market short thesis, though no trade was taken due to briefing preparation. Broader index analysis points to the Dow’s all-time high as a potential market magnet that could trigger a pullback once reached.

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📄 TRANSCRIPT

Opening Remarks

Good morning, everybody. Welcome to the AM Briefing brought to you by MicroTrader.com, where together we trade better. We are an ES/MES futures trading room. If you're looking for a group to trade with a high-probability system, check us out.

This week's scripture is James 1:2:

"A man who endures trials is blessed, because when he passes the test, he will receive the crown of life that God has promised to those who love him."

I think that's very relatable to trading. You'll endure trials to become a successful trader. Becoming a successful trader is more about improving yourself—learning to be patient and to wait. So yes, a man who endures trials is blessed.

Intraday levels carry greater weight than old levels—what's developing today matters more than what was on your chart months ago.

Tip of the Day: Intraday vs. Historical Levels

Today's tip of the day came to mind yesterday, and I thought it was worth sharing. Intraday levels carry greater weight than old levels. The levels developing intraday are more important than something that was on your chart three months ago—especially in futures.

Why? Because of contract rollover, you must be cautious with how far back you’re looking for levels. Our intraday levels and RTH (regular trading hours) levels outweigh overnight levels. What's happening now is more important than what's old, and what's happening during RTH is more important than what happens overnight.

We’ll look at a visual to reiterate that point shortly.

Post-Holiday Trading Advice

Thursday was essentially a holiday, and Friday was a total holiday, leading into a long weekend. We're rolling into a new week, and I caution against jumping into trades too early today. It might actually be a great day to skip altogether. Let the market tip its hand and reveal what it wants to do.

There might be better trading setups this afternoon than in the morning. We'll let levels develop and take trades accordingly.

Essay Format Questions

Which day had the clearest structure?
Did you take advantage of it?

Weekly Journaling Prompt

The prompt of the week in Trader Meditations—our journaling software—is a weekly reflection that you should think about each day:

Which day had the clearest structure, and did you take advantage?

This is a great question to consider over the weekend as you review your week. If you use our system properly, your levels should match mine. There's no secret sauce—just structure and consistency. Your end-of-day charts should make this structure clear.

News and Seasonality

Not a whole lot of news this week. Just some old FOMC minutes—nothing groundbreaking. The odds of a July rate cut have dropped dramatically, although two rate cuts are still expected later this year.

I don’t see anything in Wednesday’s report that should be market-moving. Unemployment claims, in my opinion, don’t deserve the red folder—they’re orange at best.

Seasonally, July is one of the most bullish months of the year. Would I love a pullback? Absolutely. But we have to trade the structure as it develops, with emphasis on intraday and RTH levels.

Chart Breakdown: Volume Analysis

Let's zoom out to get a better view.

I pulled up volume to show how Wednesday’s volume looks really strong. Here's the overnight volume—so let’s talk about which levels are more likely to be defended.

Think of it this way: Which army is bigger? The RTH army is massive—think the U.S. vs. the Virgin Islands. Thursday was a shortened session, but it had decent volume. These levels will still be important. However, the half-session on Friday? Not important. We treat holiday sessions as part of the overnight session.

Does this visual help reinforce why RTH levels matter more? In my humble opinion, yes. And I’ll stick with it.

Volume isn’t always necessary, but on the weekend it’s a good idea to reference it if you’re unsure.

Trade Thesis and Execution

Let’s go to a five-minute chart. Last night, I was outlining a potential short from the 15 to 18 zone. If you missed the Sunday night stream, here’s the logic: Thursday trapped some longs in that zone. If price reentered that area, those traders might exit, leading to a bounce or rejection.

Would that mean we’re going to drop 500 points? No. Shorts are scalps for me—touch-and-go trades that must run hard to justify holding.

So that was my thesis last night: we’d enter 15–18 and get a reaction. And this morning? Price came right to 15 and bounced. I didn’t take the short, as I was preparing for this AM briefing. Should I be trading while doing that? No. Would it be cool to have caught the move? Sure, but that’s ego talking. I'm just happy price bounced at a level that aligned with my thesis.

Trade Execution Recap and Caution

Those arrows on the chart from the live session are still there. Anyone can review that stream. I wasn’t presented with a clean entry—no big deal.

One person asked if we could go 30 points long. I never know how far price will go. I just focus on the likely bounce levels, then apply our three-contract system to stay in trades. Don’t let a long go against you. It’s been working well lately, but that doesn’t mean you should get complacent.

Strong rejection zones include the 15–18 range and single prints below as key downside targets.

Key Levels and Targets

Zooming out again—let’s revisit Thursday’s structure. We had a value area high and a VPOC around 24. That’s a potential magnet. But would we reject from the value area low and my strong range at 15? That’s why the 15–18 zone was important.

I also want you to notice Wednesday’s high. In the overnight session, price bounced right off that. Coincidence? Probably not. On Friday’s RTH session, we bounced again—this time off the IB low. Another “coincidence”? Doubtful. And yet another bounce at the halfback level of the RTH session. These things matter.

Had I taken the short at 15, my first target would’ve been the single prints. That’s where I would’ve taken profit. For multiple contracts, I’d watch out at the overnight low, and hope to reach the bull-bear line.

Dow Magnet and Market Outlook

Let’s look at broader markets.

Where’s the biggest magnet across the indices? For me, it’s the Dow all-time high, which failed to hit on Thursday. Right now, the Dow has a strong upward VWAP and trendline. But will ES and NQ allow it to get there?

If the Dow finally tags that all-time high, I’d expect a potential pullback across the indices. Also, be sure you have the unadjusted ES all-time high at 6650 marked on your chart. Same for NQ traders.

Wrap-Up

The battle plan is working out so far. I don’t have a trade yet, and that’s fine. It’s Monday after a long weekend—maybe I’ll let price settle.

I’ll see you all 15 minutes before market open. Hope you have a great trading day. My goal is to post a wrap-up video later today. Thanks for listening, thanks for the likes—and it’s okay if there are zero comments!

Stay green, my friends. To learn more, visit MicroTrader.com.