Thursday July 17, 2025

Q: What should I do differently on the day before OPEX?

Reduce your size, consider a 'one and done' mindset, and be extra cautious due to increased volatility.

In the Thursday AM Briefing (Episode 472), traders were advised to adopt a patient and intentional approach, emphasizing mapped-out strategies over reactive decision-making. The discussion centered around trading within clearly defined ranges on the ES futures chart, highlighting statistical advantages in shorting resistance and buying support. Additional caution was urged ahead of Friday’s options expiration, with a suggested "one and done" trading mindset to avoid excessive risk. The session concluded with updates on trading tools and community resources aimed at improving structure and psychological discipline.

📚 RESOURCES

▶️ Free "Futures Foundations Course"

▶️ Become A Member: ES MES Futures Trading Room

▶️ YouTube Community Updates

▶️ Trader Meditations: Journaling Software for Futures Traders

📄 TRANSCRIPT

Opening Remarks

In this Thursday morning briefing, we’re focusing on three main pillars of effective futures trading: patience, market awareness, and discipline. A recurring theme is the importance of intentionality—waiting for setups that align with your pre-defined strategy, rather than reacting emotionally or impulsively to market action.

Patience and Intentional Trading

A key idea emphasized in this session is that there’s always another high-probability trade around the corner. Missing a trade isn't the end of the world. In fact, it’s part of the process. One community member even noted how much they appreciated this mindset when joining: "Scott said one of the things he most looked forward to was knowing there’s always another high probability trade coming." That idea of acceptance helps combat FOMO and keeps you grounded in your strategy.

The "Prompt of the Week" from Trader Meditations draws a sharp contrast between intentional and reactive trading. Intentional trading is described as planned: “If this happens, then I’ll do that.” It’s a deliberate execution of a mapped-out scenario. Reactive trading, on the other hand, is the frantic: “Oh my gosh it’s vomiting—short, short, short!” It’s based on fear, greed, or knee-jerk emotion, and it often leads to regret.

Trading Within the Range: Know Where You Are At

One of the strongest tactical insights shared today is about understanding the market’s current range. This session focused heavily on ES (E-mini S&P 500 futures) trading within a well-established range.

The advice is simple: know where you’re trading. The top of the range becomes a resistance level, and the bottom acts as support. Longing near resistance or shorting near support is generally discouraged. As the speaker noted: "Careful longing in the red, careful shorting in the green. You must know where you are at."

Statistical review backed up this guidance. The speaker showed how shorting at the top of the range worked 10 out of 10 times in recent sessions. Longs at the bottom of the range also yielded consistent opportunities. There were even classic breakout scenarios: price action breaking above the range, taking out stops, pulling back in—and offering short setups from a higher liquidity sweep.

Calendar Awareness and External Factors

Thursday’s trading also comes with context. It’s the day before monthly option expiration (OPEX), a time historically known for unpredictable or manipulated price moves. As a result, the speaker advises a “one and done” mentality or even skipping the session entirely.

Retail Sales and Unemployment Claims came out one hour before market open, making the post-news period more stable. Seasonality for July is described as bullish—“up, up, and away”—and the speaker gives a “majority vote” to the upside, even though the ES is currently in a sideways range.

One subtle warning: the overnight high was set during the London RTH session, which sometimes acts as a "canary in the coal mine"—an early bearish indicator. Even with this signal, the default stance remains bullish until the range resolves.

Mindset and Trade Psychology

Discipline and mindset are vital components of this morning’s discussion. The speaker openly shared how they missed two trades: one by being “a little too greedy,” and another by “literally one tick.” Instead of frustration, the key takeaway is acceptance—just move on and stay ready for the next clean setup.

Journaling is also emphasized, with a reminder to use tools like “Trader Meditations” to document every trade and insight. Especially on riskier days like pre-OPEX Thursdays, the “one and done” mentality helps avoid overtrading.

Community, Tools, and Trading Setup

New tools were introduced: the Battle Plan and the Strong Levels Indicator. The Battle Plan includes a 7-day trial and is designed to help traders plan each day with clarity. The Strong Levels Indicator automatically marks major range boundaries, saving time and reducing ambiguity.

Platform preferences were also mentioned: the speaker personally uses Tradovate on Mac and would choose NinjaTrader on PC. More importantly, the power of community was highlighted again: “That’s one reason we trade together—because together we trade better.” Live Zoom meetings before market open help reinforce structure and accountability.