Tuesday July 1, 2025

In Tuesday’s AM briefing, futures educator MicroTrader.com emphasized the seasonal strength of July, highlighting that the month has not closed negative in the past decade. The session opened with reflections on market psychology, including a journaling prompt and a reminder to protect emotional capital during indecisive sessions. A detailed review of Monday’s late-day price spike suggested trapped buyers and laid out a short-biased battle plan, which mostly played out overnight. While mixed market internals kept traders cautious, the presenter favored waiting for a cleaner long setup rather than chasing residual downside risk.

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📄 TRANSCRIPT

Opening Remarks

Welcome to the AM briefing video presented by microtrader.com—where together we trade better. Good morning, everybody. Happy Tuesday, July 1st.

Did you realize that in the last 10 years, July has never finished negative? Does that mean it's going to be green again? Probably not—it likely means nothing. But it’s still something to keep in mind.

"Be strong and courageous. Don’t be terrified or afraid of them, for it is the Lord your God who goes with you. He will not leave you or forsake you."

Tip of the Day

Know when to say "no thank you."

Last night, I did a recap video where I explained why yesterday was a "no thank you" day. Some days it's best to preserve your mental and emotional equity. Keep that capital intact for a better trading day. Often, you know within the first 30 minutes if the day is even worth trading.

If you didn’t watch last night’s recap, I recommend checking it out.

Essay Format Questions

If you repeated this week 10 times, what would you change?

Today’s Events & Calendar

Today is Tuesday. Fed Chair Powell will be speaking at the opening. We’ll be live 15 minutes before market open. Then, 30 minutes after the open, we’ve got Manufacturing PMI and JOLTS Jobs data.

If you want to trade with us live, there’s a link in the description—and maybe in the first comment—so you can join us.

Seasonality and Mid-Year Reflection

It’s not every day you get to say “alligator Alcatraz,” but Trump will be flying down to Florida for just that. Thought that was worth mentioning.

Seasonality is something we look at occasionally—July is historically strong. Maybe we’ll get a little pullback today and then go long and stay long all month. Sometimes it's just one solid trade that, when added to over the month, makes your year.

Today is also the first day of the last six months of the year. A great time to review what you’ve done so far and what you want to change for the rest of the year. Double down on what you do best and eliminate what you don’t.

Battle Plan Review

Last night I published the battle plan shortly after the market closed. What are we looking for? It’s just one trader’s opinion, but it’s a solid chart mapping of what could unfold.

There was a spike up at the end of the day, end of the month, and end of the quarter. I believe that move trapped buyers. I even asked an hour after the close: “Could this be the high for a while?”

The battle plan anticipated an initial failure in that area—and that’s exactly what we got. I went to bed with a short at 61, but it didn’t fill. I cancelled it this morning since I wasn’t in the trade.

My idea was to get short last night. That didn’t happen, but price did fail where I expected. Now we’re coming back into that same area.

We’ve got a trendline here, and to be honest, I’m not interested in taking the short anymore. 61 was my short level. Depending on how price behaved around here, it could’ve been a decent add-on. It certainly fits within the distance guidelines I use when adding to trades.

This is the meat of yesterday’s price action. These longs want to defend. They don’t want to get trapped like the previous group.

Trade Management Strategy

This level held well yesterday, strongly supporting price. If they’re going to give it up, this is the likely spot. The battle plan also included long setups.

If I’d been short from 61, I’d be looking to take profits down here. Since it's a counter-trade at the bull’s level of control, I’d manage it using our system.

Let’s zoom out now and see what others are doing. Give me a thumbs-up or a comment—I've noticed traders who comment tend to have strong green days. Maybe it’s superstition, maybe not, but it’s worth the good vibes.

Bull/Bear Comparison

Right now, all indices are under their VWAPs. Russell is under the previous day’s low. That’s not exactly bullish.

The only reason I considered a short was because of the trapped longs. After several days of higher highs and higher lows, you expect a pullback—and this seemed like a great setup with end-of-month dynamics and trapped buyers thinking we’d hit 6,400.

They were wrong and got squeezed.

I’m usually not a short seller when bulls are in control. I prefer to short where buyers are trapped. They’re not trapped here yet—defending well.

But had I gotten short at 61, I might’ve considered adding here. It’s 26 points away—more than my 20-point threshold for considering adds.

When you’re in a winning trade, think about where to add—not just where to exit.

Trade Example and Exit Ideas

These were our mapped-out battle plan trades—posted as a benefit for members. If it aligns with what you’re seeing, it can be powerful confirmation.

We’ll go live 15 minutes before the market opens and review the chart again. Most short setups have already played out.

I should’ve taken that short. I was a little greedy. This would’ve been my add. At this point, I’d be managing that add-on as a separate trade.

We're near the trendline. I don’t usually counter-trade against a trendline bounce. But if it’s a mapped-out trade, I’m willing to take it.

If you’re short, I’d watch for price to fill the new week opening gap—great spot to take some profits. For example, if you have 3 contracts, maybe peel two off here. You’re deep in profit—you can’t really get hurt at this point.

If we get a strong pullback, that could be an entry long. I’m not eager to short again. I mapped out the short already, and it worked. Now, I’d rather wait for a cleaner setup.

The RTH halfback is going to be critical—it’s a key bull/bear line today. We’re under it now. That raises the risk of a liquidation break.

Final Bull/Bear Metrics

- Overnight trendline: favors bears.
- Session stacking: edge to the bulls.
- VWAP & overnight halfback: currently under both—bearish.
- Yesterday’s range: inside it—bullish.
- Indices: mixed. INQ is below the low, Russell broke Friday’s low, Dow not really participating—feels 50/50.

Bull/Bear Line & Final Thoughts

Be careful setting passive long orders today. Know your battle plan levels and wait for clean setups.

In my humble opinion, I’d love a 3–4 hour “vomit” to set up the long. If we get a bell-to-bell short day, oh well. I missed it due to being a little greedy and doing this briefing.

Should I be trading while briefing? Probably not. I’ll see you live 15 minutes before the open. We’ll be streaming on YouTube.

Stay green, my friends. Learn more about our community at microtrader.com.

FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS

Q: Why was 61 a key short level in the battle plan?
A: It aligned with a late-session spike that likely trapped buyers, making it a high-probability reversal zone based on previous market behavior.

Q: What is the recommended approach after entering a winning trade?
A: The focus should be on where to potentially add to the position, not just on where to exit, especially if the trade has moved significantly in your favor.

Q: How can traders use the RTH halfback as a bull/bear line?
A: When price is trading below the RTH halfback, it can signal bearish control and increase the risk of a liquidation break, serving as a critical decision-making threshold.