Tuesday July 15, 2025

Q: How can I track my performance on previous CPI days?

Use Trader Meditations journaling software. Under the 'History' tab, click the 'Special Days' drop-down and select CPI to see your logged trades on past CPI releases.

Traders entered CPI day with cautious optimism after a volatile overnight session broke out of a tightly defined range. Despite expectations, the CPI report delivered a muted market reaction, reinforcing the notion that price action often precedes news. The ES and NQ reached new all-time highs, while the Dow lagged, underscoring a divergence in index participation. Emphasis remained on respecting market structure and key levels rather than reacting emotionally to price or economic headlines.

☀️ AM BRIEFING

Opening Remarks

Good morning, everybody. Let me make a little adjustment here. Alright, here we go.

Good morning again! This week’s scripture comes from Lamentations: "Because of the Lord's faithful love, we do not perish, for His mercies never end. They are new every morning; great is Your faithfulness."

Tip of the Day & Trader Humor

Tip of the day from George with the daily battle plan: "Why don't you map out shorts when bulls control?" Well, I give you Exhibit A — last night’s price action.

Today is CPI day, and what does CPI usually bring? Let’s hear a quick word from our favorite satire segment.

Welcome to “Trap the Trader.” Tommy trades every day, John never met a short he didn’t like, and Sam... well, Sam’s account got busted last reset. Returning champion Dick Christers is in the building. So what’s going on today, Bob? Opportunity — until next time, don’t pick up a big up, traders.

Moral of the story? Don’t become a victim of “Trap the Trader.”

Essay Format Questions

What part of your trading felt reactive versus intentional?
Did you enter a trade impulsively or with a clear plan?

Market Context & July's Heat

Reminder: July is a super hot month — kind of like my mic. And if you’re trying to counter a powerful July move? Don’t whiz on the electric fence. Countering a strong market is like that.

Battle Plan Membership & Posting Locations

On the battle plan side, there’s a new membership level — if you just want access to the battle plan, there’s now a seven-day free trial.

Full members get early access via Discord.
Battle plan-only members get the same content posted directly to the website.

Chart Review & Levels Discussion

So last night, what were we looking for? Longs — definitely not shorts. We discussed a tight range that would explode eventually. And it did.

Once that move happened, the best thing to do was stay out of the way. The bottom of the range was explored, we came back to 4111, and then we had the explosive move. ES runs, chops, traps, and breaks — and we trade that structure the best we can.

That irrational up move? It reset the chart. I’m kicking myself for not taking the strong-level long. We laddered from the bottom, exploded out, and after that move — there wasn’t much left to do.

Price got over our strong level, tested the next, and came back. That was absolutely a valid entry, though I didn’t take it.

Why? Because we already grabbed the all-time high liquidity by a tick or two. We came back and tested a bounce level — could’ve taken it, but I passed.

We missed the battle plan alert by three points. That would’ve been the initial entry; the next would’ve been the add-on.

If I had taken it, and it exploded to the all-time high, that would’ve been a 70-point trade. I probably would’ve taken 50, which ironically would’ve gotten stopped. Maybe I’d have locked a 50-pointer, maybe just grabbed 25. Sometimes you don’t know till you're in the trade.

This was an irrational move, so you expect a retrace — and we got one. It is what it is. There are other trades and more high-probability setups coming.

No single trade should ever hurt you. Always trade with the mindset that every setup is just one of many.

CPI Release & Trade Planning

CPI hits in two minutes. They're not expecting a big move.

Let’s mark some ranges:

30-point move — this would be in our battle plan long area.
60-point move — marked further down.

So if price hits those areas, those become our battle plan trades.

Naturally, I want a down-push... so it’ll probably go straight up. That’s how it usually goes. And sure enough — straight up. What do I know?

We never know the path, but we’re great at identifying bounce zones. How far will the bounce go? No idea.

It was a muted CPI reaction — exactly as expected.

Macro Notes & Final Comments

Another interpretation: The real move happened last night — that was the “in the know” crowd. Today just lets the rest of us catch up.

Expected range for the week is higher. If we push to the next strong level, I might take a small speculative short.

Remember: No single trade should ever hurt you.

Trendlines? I might’ve removed one — nothing exciting there.

Difficult to short or long at all-time highs. ES and NQ made new highs. Who’s not participating? The Dow. Likely due to financial sector earnings weightings — it’s still inside yesterday’s range.

Just trade structure. Don’t worry about the number over on the right.

I’ll be live 15 minutes before market open. Had it been a bigger move, I’d have streamed longer. Today was a muted CPI reaction — sometimes those candles go 100 points.

Alright, that’s it for me... but I do have one more prediction for today…

Trader FAQs: CPI Days, Summer Volatility & All-Time Highs

Q: How can I track my performance on previous CPI days?
A: Use Trader Meditations journaling software. Under the "History" tab, click the "Special Days" drop-down and select CPI to see your logged trades on past CPI releases.

Q: What should I consider before countering a strong directional move in July?
A: July is historically strong, and trying to fade powerful trends is risky. The stream advises avoiding counter-trend trades unless there's a clear, high-probability setup.

Q: Why avoid trading near all-time highs?
A: All-time highs lack historical resistance, making price behavior less predictable. It’s often difficult to identify reliable support/resistance structure in those zones.

Briefing: Market Dynamics, Trader Psychology, and CPI Day

This briefing summarises key themes and facts from the "Tuesday AM Briefing (Hot Mic Audio - Sorry) [Ep 470]" podcast, focusing on market conditions, trading strategies, and the psychological aspects of trading, particularly in anticipation of a CPI announcement.

1. Market Conditions and Price Action

The current market is characterised by strong bullish momentum, described as "July is up up and away". This is evident in the ES and NQ indices reaching "new all-time highs". The speaker repeatedly cautions against "countering a powerful move like this", likening it to "whizzing on the electric fence", highlighting the risks of shorting in a strong uptrend.

Explosive Moves: The market has experienced "a little bit of a stupid explosive move" recently, which the speaker advises traders to "stay out of the way" of. Such moves can reset the chart, making prior analysis less relevant.
Range Trading: The speaker discusses trading within a defined range, expecting an "explosive" move when price finally breaks out. Once an explosive move has occurred, there is "not a whole lot to do" immediately after, suggesting a period of waiting for new setups.
All-Time Highs: Trading at "right around the all-time highs" is described as "real difficult". The market has "grabbed that liquidity by one or two ticks" at the all-time high, which can lead to a bounce if "the bulls are real".
Index Divergence: While ES and NQ have "blown out of yesterday's range making new all-time highs", the Dow is "really not participating in this move". This divergence is attributed to the Dow's heavier weighting towards banks and financials, which are entering earnings season.
Trading Structure over News: Despite market numbers, the advice is to "just trade the structure and don't care what the number over there is".

2. CPI Day Expectations and Reaction

The briefing takes place on "CPI day", a significant event for traders.

Anticipation of Muted Reaction: The speaker notes that "they're not expecting much of a big move here" for CPI, and indeed, the reaction observed is "very muted". This leads to speculation that "the people in the know made their money last night".
Journaling CPI Days: Traders are encouraged to use journaling software (Trader Meditations) to track their performance on "special days" like CPI. This allows individuals to see if they "don't do so well on CPI or I do great on CPI".
Expected Price Targets: The speaker marks out potential "30 point moves and beyond" and "60 point moves" as "battle plan trades".

3. Trader Psychology and Common Pitfalls (Trap the Trader)

A significant portion of the briefing focuses on common psychological traps that ensnare traders, personified in the "Trap the Trader" game show segment.

Overleveraging and Revenge Trading: These are highlighted as detrimental behaviours that lead to "blowing your accounts".
FOMO (Fear Of Missing Out): Represented by "Freddy Fomo Frederickson", FOMO is a strong driver of reactive, unplanned trading.
Daily Trading Obsession: "Johnny I just have to trade every day Johnson" embodies the pressure some traders feel to be constantly in the market, regardless of optimal conditions.
Predicting Price: "Patrick predict price Patterson" represents the often futile attempt to precisely predict market direction, rather than reacting to structure.
Reactive vs. Intentional Trading: A key journaling prompt is to analyse if trading felt "reactive versus intentional", distinguishing between "planned or unplanned" actions. The speaker asks, "did I get all excited and decided I needed to be in the move?"
"Resets" and "FAFO": The term "resets" implies restarting after blowing an account, while "FAFO" (presumably "f*** around and find out") warns against reckless trading.
Managing Losses: The crucial philosophy is "no single trade should hurt you". This underpins the need for proper risk management and not allowing emotional reactions to dictate trading decisions.

4. Trading Strategies and Discipline

The speaker provides insights into their own trading approach and advises on disciplined execution.

Patience and Waiting: Despite identifying potential entries, the speaker notes instances where they "chose not to take it" or "nothing to do now", emphasising the importance of patience and waiting for high-probability setups.
Battle Plan: The "battle plan" provides early access to trading ideas and levels. The speaker outlines specific strong levels for long entries and potential speculative shorts, but always within the context of risk management.
Profit Taking: The speaker discusses the dilemma of taking profit at specific levels versus letting winners run, acknowledging that "sometimes you don't know it until you're actually in it".
Acceptance of Uncertainty: Despite detailed analysis, the speaker admits, "I don't know what the hell I'm talking about — you never know exact path price is going to go", highlighting the inherent unpredictability of the market. They are "really good at where price bounces" but "how far is that bounce going to go, I have no clue".

5. Spiritual and Personal Reflection

The briefing opens with a spiritual reference, quoting Lamentations: "Because of the Lord's faithful love we do not perish, for His mercies never end. They are new every morning; great is Your faithfulness."

This introduces a theme of renewal and resilience, perhaps a subtle nod to the "resets" in trading and the importance of starting fresh.