Wednesday Jul 2: Live ES & MES Trade Prep for Our S&P Futures Trading Room
Wednesday July 2, 2025
Traders began Wednesday’s session with cautious optimism ahead of Thursday’s full nonfarm payroll release, following a quieter ADP day. Market structure remained bullish, particularly in the Dow and ES, while ENQ showed signs of relative weakness. Seasonality and trendlines indicated continued upward bias, but risk of reversal loomed should major indices fail to hold recent highs. A missed overnight short setup was used to highlight the value of journaling, discipline, and mental rehearsal in trading strategy.Opening Remarks
Welcome to the AM briefing video presented by MicroTrader.com, where together we trade better. Good morning, everybody.
"Be strong and courageous. Don't be terrified or afraid of them, for it is the Lord your God who goes with you. He will not leave you or forsake you."
Scripture and Reflection
Do you notice, as the week goes on, I get better and better at reading the same verse? The first day it seems like I'm stumbling; by the third or fourth day, it just rolls right off the tongue, and you get it. That's the benefit of repeating scripture multiple times.
Essay Format Questions
- What do I need to improve?
- Honestly, what do I do best?
- What do I not do best?
- What temptation tempts me the most that I have to tell myself, “No, you are not doing that”?
Tip of the Day: Journal & Measure
Tip of the day: Do you want to improve? Do you really want to improve? Journal, journal, journal. Measure, measure, measure—because what gets measured and scrutinized improves. You have to be 100% honest with yourself.
Every trade must be recorded. Every fumble must be recorded. Every base hit and home run needs to be recorded. Then you put in the hard work on the weekend, looking at your journal entry and asking key questions.
Essay Format Questions
- If this week repeated 10 times, what would you change?
Seasonality and Market Trend
I want to look at the seasonality again. Notice July: up, up, and away. The easiest path is to the north. Everybody gets paid. Everybody gets bonuses. Everybody gets happier.
So be careful looking at this chart and saying, "I need to find a short." You have to be careful with that.
Core Strategy Entries Recap
One thing I didn’t do in yesterday’s wrap-up video (and by the way, I’m not going to be live this morning; I need to turn that off) is I didn’t talk about the core strategy entries—the first three bounce levels that you learn in our system. I need to remember to do that each evening.
The basic core strategy had eight wins. There were no losses, but there was one scratch that we talked about this morning in the Discord group if you want to go look at that trade. If you didn’t take the gift of break-even, it bounced back and forth through or at the level for two full minutes. Then price went on to the north, and you would have experienced a full loser.
So it was either eight wins and one loser, or eight wins and one scratch. The top runner was a 20-point runner.
Chart Breakdown & Trade of the Day
This was the trade of the day. We did talk about that: once we took this low, it came in with a vengeance off this strong level, and it was also a core strategy level—certainly a winner.
The green are longs. In my opinion, these are the ones with the trend. We are still trending up. We’re making higher highs and higher lows. There’s no doubt the trend is to the north.
The orange are shorts. In the best-case scenario on any of these shorts, two to four points is the maximum you would have made.
Is it worth counter-trading, or is it worth saying, "This is a bull market, and I am only going to take longs until I see clear evidence that this ship has turned"?
Battle Plan & Overnight Recap
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Let’s talk about the battle plan posted last night before the market reopened. What I said is that some nights the entries seem obvious to my eyeballs; tonight isn’t one of them. Dow finished near its breakout highs. ENQ finished below yesterday’s low. ES had an inside day. This is a tricky combination. Caution is warranted. Tread lightly.
A small note: if we take out the all-time high, I might consider a small stop-laddered short—but only if it meets my criteria for shorting in an uptrend. Last night’s short setup was different; we had clear excess that, in my opinion, trapped longs. That’s not the case tonight; no one’s trapped here.
One final note: today’s high was 61, which was the exact level I was shorting last night. These were deeper pushes I was mainly interested in, with the note that if we take out the all-time high, I would be interested in a ladder back short.
Overnight Session & Missed Trade
As luck would have it, I woke up at 2:00 a.m. this morning for the London Open and was watching it from my phone. As soon as we had this shift here, I thought, "George, you need to get up." Then I told myself, "George, do you really want to get up and short at all-time highs?"
But it was starting to meet my criteria. Had I gotten up, that was my short—took zero heat and would have been a phenomenal move. Then you simply play perfect chess, and I would still be short.
You don’t need to be in every move. You don’t need to wake up at 2 a.m. to trade. But I was watching that, and it’s fun to watch.
Now what I’ll do is I’ll continually mentally trade that trade until it ends, and I think that’s the prudent thing to do.
Trend Line Reactions & Macro View
Let’s zoom out here. As we talked about, we had gapped down that Sunday, then a beautiful ladder back. We broke out of range, and then what have we been doing? We’ve been laddering up.
We talked about drawing this trend line on your chart—just skirting right through here. Touch and go there, yesterday touch and go. And right now, we’re back to challenging this level.
Tomorrow is the real NFP. Who knows what will happen? But here we are. We came to the trend line again. It’s amazing how these things will bounce. We got under the trend line, and now we have bounced under the bottom side. Things that make you go, "Hmm."
Market Internals & Sector Watch
Let’s check everybody else. I wanted to make sure I had two days—two RTH days—of data. The green boxes are RTH. Look what happened when Russell had an inside day: it explodes out of balance.
We had an inside day yesterday. Sorry, here’s our RTH. Then yesterday we had an inside day as well. Which way might we explode in Q and Dow? These are decoupled.
Dow made a new high, finished at the high, and has stayed well within the upper distribution of yesterday’s range. The thing that I see here is—if Dow decides to come back in, could that be the catalyst that really sends us lower?
Caution for Bulls & Focus Areas
I would be very careful with longs, requiring ladder back only. There would be no insta-buying any level. I would just simply watch price and see what happens.
Of course, I will continually mental trade that short that I could have been in if I decided to get up and take that trade. I chose bed over taking a short.
Look where ENQ is. ENQ is now at the bottom of today’s range—we’re at the middle, at least. It’s not bearish yet, but this is not good for bulls.
So, for ENQ, Dow will be my main focus today. What happens if we take out the low, and what happens if we take this out? To me, Dow is going to be really important today.
If you’re in my group, we’ll be watching that together. If you’re on your own, in my opinion, make sure you try to watch that as well.
Closing Remarks
Here we are challenging that trend line. It’s of interest that the non-core strategy and my battle plans, which I published last night on YouTube in a community post as well as in my group, are going to surround our strong levels and levels that I think are of importance.
Once again, I will continue to trade that short that I would have taken. I will mentally trade it. I don’t like getting into a different trade as long as the trade that I should have been in is still a valid trade—because that’s the trade I should have been in.
I will continue to mental trade that and will resist the temptation to be long until that short ends.
I wish you good luck trading today. I’ll see my traders live 15 minutes before the market opens. I hope you stay green, my friends. To learn more about our group, go to MicroTrader.com.
Trader Q&A
Q: Why is journaling emphasized so heavily in this trading method?
A: Journaling provides a record of trades, mistakes, and successes, which is critical for honest self-review and strategic improvement.
Q: What does a ladder-back entry mean?
A: A ladder-back entry refers to entering a position after a pullback to a known level following a breakout or directional move, offering better risk-reward.
Q: How should I approach trading on the day before NFP or during half-day sessions?
A: Trade cautiously with smaller size or sit out entirely, as liquidity and participation may be limited, increasing the risk of erratic price moves.
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