Wednesday Jul 23: Get Ready to Trade: Key S&P Futures Prep for Our AM Room

Wednesday July 23, 2025

In Wednesday’s AM Briefing, traders were encouraged to refine their pre-defined trade plans, particularly outlining responses to post-loss scenarios. Emphasis was placed on journaling emotional triggers and fostering self-honesty to enhance rule adherence. Market commentary noted ES reaching all-time highs and the absence of NQ participation, signaling caution in long entries. The speaker also highlighted the integration of a structured battle plan within the core strategy, reinforcing discipline and preparedness in volatile conditions.
📚 RESOURCES
📄 TRANSCRIPT

Opening Remarks

Welcome to the Wednesday AM Briefing, Episode 476. Today is Wednesday, July 23rd, and we're going to walk through key concepts related to trading strategy, discipline, and current ES market structure. Let's get into it.

"Therefore, we do not give up. Even though our outer person is being destroyed, our inner person is being renewed day by day. For our momentary light affliction is producing for us an absolutely incomparable eternal weight of glory. So we do not focus on what is seen, but what is unseen. For what is seen is temporary, but what is unseen is eternal."

The Importance of a Defined Trade Plan

Our tip of the day: What does your trade plan say about what you do after taking a loss?

That’s a critical question. Too many traders react emotionally after a losing trade. Your trade plan should dictate your response. Do you take a six-minute break? Walk around the block? Knock out a few push-ups? Grab a fresh glass of water? Do you size up? Size down? Do you call it a day?

For example, I made a mistake yesterday by taking a riskier single-contract entry. If I’d waited for the more textbook setup, I could’ve traded with more size and kept a runner. That’s a key difference. We want to have predefined responses built into the trade plan so our emotions don’t lead our next move.

Essay Format Questions

  1. What emotion affected your trade today?
  2. How will you respond differently next time?

Journaling and Mindset

The prompt of the week is this: When you face the temptation of breaking a rule, do you write it down?

You don’t need to be eloquent. This isn’t for anyone else’s eyes. Be honest with yourself. Journaling is how we correct course. It’s the key to building mental resilience and sticking to your plan. Self-awareness leads to consistency.

I remind myself: Green over greed. I only took one trade yesterday, caught just part of the move, but you know what? I was green. That’s enough. Focus on consistency, not jackpot trades.

Battle Plan and Core Strategy Integration

Let’s talk strategy. We now integrate our battle plan into our core system. You learned the first three bounce levels in the Core Strategy Academy. Those are foundational. But now, we’re layering in ideal paths for price — what we call “the battle plan.”

Each evening and morning, I review game film. Did price do what we expected? Did I follow my rules? Did I take the A+ trade or did I chase?

Keeping a runner is part of the system too, provided you’re trading with a real account and not constrained by prop firm limitations. Most prop firms won’t allow overnight holds, which can affect runner strategy. But when you do have the flexibility, that runner can compound your edge.

ES is at an all-time high — that’s a caution flag. Wait for price to pull back or reset before entering a new long.

ES and NQ Market Analysis

Let’s look at where we are now. ES is at an all-time high — and that’s my least favorite place to take new trades. Can I take a long here? Not really. It’s already reached its goal. I’ll wait.

Also, NQ is not participating today. It’s not bearish per se, but when NQ lags this much, it removes the 100% vote of confidence. It’s a time to pause.

As for the chop zone, we’ve created a new small range. Here’s how I’m looking at it:

  • Long scenario: If price gets back into the range, we could target the opposite end. The question is: will they defend it again and restart the ladder up?
  • Short scenario: Since we’ve already hit the magnet to the north (the all-time high), if price comes back into the range, you could look for a short toward the other side.

News and Earnings Watch

Key economic release today: Existing Home Sales, dropping 30 minutes after market open.

Also, big names report after the bell — Tesla and Google. Tesla’s earnings could drive NQ later, so keep that in mind during the PM session.

Final Thoughts

Stick to your plan. Review your game film. Journal honestly. Avoid chasing highs or shorting uptrends without clearly defined rules.

Let’s trade well and stay focused.

Frequently Asked Questions

Q: What is the primary purpose of a "trade plan" and why is it so important for traders?
A: A trade plan is a pre-defined set of rules and actions that a trader should follow, especially after taking a loss. It's crucial because it provides a structured response to adverse situations, preventing emotional decision-making. The source emphasizes that a trade plan should explicitly dictate what to do after a loss, such as taking a break, performing a physical activity, getting water, adjusting trade size (sizing up or down), or even taking the day off. This disciplined approach ensures consistency and helps traders avoid impulsive reactions that could lead to further losses.

Q: How does the "Battle Plan" system complement the "Core Strategy" for traders?
A: The "Battle Plan" is described as a new and improved addition to the existing "Core Strategy" system. While the "Core Strategy" provides foundational bounce levels for entering trades, the "Battle Plan" offers a more detailed, pre-published roadmap for potential trade setups. It maps out ideal price paths and zones for engagement, allowing traders to anticipate and prepare for opportunities. The synergy between the two systems provides both fundamental trading knowledge and specific, actionable trade ideas, enhancing a trader's overall approach.

Q: Why is journaling highlighted as a key practice for traders, particularly when facing rule-breaking temptations?
A: Journaling is strongly recommended as a daily practice, especially for confronting the temptation to break trading rules. The source suggests using journaling software like "Trader Meditations" for this purpose. The emphasis is on honesty in the journal, as it's a private space for self-reflection. By documenting struggles with obeying system rules, traders can identify their weaknesses, understand the root causes of their challenges, and work towards greater discipline. This introspective process is vital for self-improvement and adherence to the trade plan.

Q: What is the significance of "keeping a runner" in trading, and why might some prop firms restrict this practice?
A: "Keeping a runner" refers to holding a portion of a profitable trade even after taking initial profits, allowing the remaining position to continue benefiting from further price movement. The source highlights this as a strategy to maximise gains, especially in "wonderful easy trades." However, it notes that many proprietary (prop) firms do not allow traders to hold positions (runners) through market closures, implying they might force traders to exit. This restriction is not about being helpful to the trader but likely relates to the firm's risk management policies, capital allocation, or a desire for traders to close out positions daily.

Q: What is the general sentiment towards trading at an all-time high, and why is caution advised?
A: Trading at an all-time high is identified as "the least favorite place to trade." The source explicitly states that initiating new long positions at such levels is not advisable, as the primary goal of existing long trades would have already been achieved. Similarly, attempting to short (bet against) an uptrend at an all-time high is strongly discouraged, as counter-trend trades are often highlighted as the cause of losses ("scratches"). The advice is to wait for clear battle plan setups rather than engaging in new trades at elevated, potentially exhausted price levels.

Q: When is it permissible to short an uptrend, according to the source?
A: The source repeatedly questions "when can I short an uptrend?" and stresses that traders "better have those rules in place." It warns against taking "every core strategy short," implying that not all short signals are valid in an uptrend. The best wins are described as being "with the trend." While not explicitly stating the rules, the implication is that shorting an uptrend is highly risky and should only be considered under very specific, pre-defined conditions outlined in a robust trade plan. The source suggests that most losses in the provided "game film" were from counter-trend trades.

Q: What is the concept of "game film" in trading, and how is it used for review?
A: "Game film" in trading refers to the detailed review of past trades and market movements, similar to how athletes review their performance. The speaker keeps charts updated throughout the week to facilitate this process, reviewing them "each evening and each morning." The purpose is to analyse how battle plan trades worked out, identify areas for improvement, and understand where better decisions could have been made. This continuous review process is crucial for learning from past experiences and refining trading strategies.

Q: How are "zones" used in identifying potential trade entries, and what is the ideal path for price action?
A: "Zones" are identified as areas between two price points (e.g., "from this bottom to this bottom") where the trader looks to engage in price action. These zones represent areas of potential support or resistance. The trader maps out an "ideal path" for price to enter these zones, indicating where they would prefer price to pull back to before entering a trade. While the ideal path doesn't always materialise (as seen when the market made a new all-time high without a significant pullback), these mapped zones provide reference points for anticipating and executing trades.

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