ES Futures Trading Room | Thu Technical Analysis For ES Emini and MES

Thursday August 21, 2025

Q: What is the significance of the 'Battle Plan' and 'strong levels' in the trading strategy?

The 'Battle Plan' is a crucial pre-market document shared with members, outlining detailed trade ideas and setups. 'Strong levels' are key price points that act as significant support or resistance. These levels help identify entry points, set stop-losses, and indicate potential market turning points.

Q: How does the briefing incorporate personal development and faith into trading?

The briefing begins with a verse from Romans 12:2 and applies it to trading by emphasizing mental renewal, discipline, and adherence to core principles. This foundation in scripture underscores the importance of thoughtful, principle-based decision-making in both life and trading.

Q: What are the key considerations for traders after a 'high energy day'?

After high volatility sessions, traders are advised to moderate expectations, as markets often enter periods of consolidation. Adjusting to slower conditions and avoiding the expectation of continued big moves is crucial.

Q: What is the current market sentiment and recommended approach for long positions?

The market is currently trending down, with bearish control evident. Long positions should be taken with caution and smaller size until price action shows strength above key levels such as the bull/bear line at 6441.50.

Q: What is the 'missed trade of the day' concept and how should traders react to it?

The 'missed trade of the day' is a learning opportunity, not a loss. Traders are encouraged to stay disciplined, avoid chasing, and instead wait for new, valid setups such as the turnaround trade.

Q: What are the most important levels to watch for the current trading day?

Key levels include today's halfback, a referenced swing low for long setups, and the bull/bear line at 6441.50. These levels help define bias, trade entry, and risk management for the day.

Q: How are trend lines used in the analysis, and what is the current trend?

Trend lines are drawn first through candle bodies for early alerts, then refined to wicks as price interacts. Current analysis confirms a downtrend with parabolic characteristics, advising caution for longs.

Micros Trader's Thursday AM Briefing for August 21st focuses on caution amid a short-term bearish trend in the ES and MES futures markets. Economic data including unemployment claims, PMI, and existing home sales are flagged as key drivers, with market participants also eyeing Friday’s Jackson Hole Symposium. A detailed breakdown of a risky long setup at the 6403 level highlights precise entry and exit logic, though the broader message remains defensive. Until price climbs above 6441.50 with structural confirmation, bear control remains the dominant market tone.

☀️ AM BRIEFING

Opening Remarks

Micros Trader begins the Thursday, August 21st AM Briefing by grounding the discussion in Romans 12:2: "Do not be conformed to this age but be transformed by the renewing of your mind." This scriptural reference encourages traders to value enduring truth over fleeting personal beliefs. Micros Trader connects this to trading by emphasizing the importance of clear thinking, discipline, and a mindset open to learning and growth. He urges traders to seek truth in their charts, setups, and performance reflections, rather than trading based on “my truth” or emotional justifications.

Micros Trader also references two videos previously shared — a “missed trade of the day” and a “50-point runner” — underscoring the importance of journaling, reviewing, and extracting lessons from past trades. "I think it was a great lesson on trading yesterday," he notes, reinforcing the idea that learning from real setups is key to developing as a trader inside the ES Futures Trade Room.

Key Economic Drivers for the Day

Micros Trader highlights several economic events that may shape Thursday's price action. These events are closely watched within the ES Futures Trade Room as they often trigger volatility and influence trade setups:

Unemployment Claims are due one hour before the market opens.
PMI Data will be released 15 minutes after the open.
Existing Home Sales come out 30 minutes after the open.
The Jackson Hole Symposium looms on Friday, drawing significant market attention and encouraging traders to be cautious ahead of potential volatility.

Analysis of Trade Idea Number Four (Risky Long Setup)

One of the most detailed segments of the briefing centers around "trade idea number four," which represents a potentially risky long opportunity.

The setup involves a dip below a strong support level at 6403, followed by a quick recovery back above it and then a move higher. Micros Trader explains that he was “really excited” to see the price dip, hoping it would go a bit further for better risk-reward. While entering long on the initial recovery was acceptable, the move didn’t immediately gain momentum. Eventually, price pushed back up and retested the level, but failed to hold above it convincingly.

Micros Trader categorizes the trade as "a tad risky," noting the price was closing near the highs of the move, but still “worth a small long.” He emphasizes that the stop loss is “obvious anywhere under the strong level.” His confidence to scale in would come only if the price made “a quick move under 6403 and back above.” Since that flush didn't occur, he did not add to his position.

This scenario was reviewed and discussed in the ES Futures Trade Room, offering members real-time context on how to manage setups and risk into key levels.

As of the overnight session, price has stayed above 6403 and beneath the RTH high, which “bodes well for the bulls.”

Market Context and Short-Term Outlook

Micros Trader explains that Wednesday was a “high energy day,” and typically, the day after such a session results in consolidation or muted movement. Therefore, expectations for significant continuation should be tempered.

Looking at broader price action, he notes that adjusting trend lines from the all-time highs reveals a clear short-term downtrend. A “parabolic move to the south” has emerged, suggesting that “longs should be cautious.” Additionally, price has been unable to break above the overnight high using a ladder pattern, suggesting the need for lower price discovery to attract buyers.

Micros Trader encourages traders to consider whether the current action represents a “lower high” that may lead to a further move down or if it’s setting up as a “higher low” that precedes another leg up. As he puts it, “The chart makes a whole lot of sense that this would continue in this direction.”

These broader market structure discussions are a regular feature of the ES Futures Trade Room, helping members frame their bias and plan execution accordingly.

He concludes that bears are currently in control, stating, “We’re certainly leaning down — the bears are in control until we can ladder above the bull/bear line.” That key level is identified at 6441.50. Only a strong move above it — ideally confirmed with a “second ladder” — would indicate a possible shift in trend and tone.

Most Important Levels for Today

Several critical levels are identified for Thursday’s trading:

Today’s Halfback: The market is currently sitting at the halfback level, marking the midpoint of the previous session’s range.
Swing Low for Battle Plan Long: A potential reentry or "lotto runner" long setup lies just below the current swing low. If traders aren’t already in, getting long below that swing low may offer another chance before the stop is triggered.
Strong Range Activity: The market is trading within the anticipated range. Micros Trader notes this is a key area to watch for the next setup from the battle plan.

These levels are reviewed daily inside the ES Futures Trade Room to help members stay aligned with current structure and setups.

In conclusion, Micros Trader calls for caution from bulls, given the downtrend and strong bear control. He urges traders to focus on key levels, understand the broader market structure, and wait for solid setups that align with their plans.

❓ FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS

Frequently Asked Questions – AM Briefing Overview

What is the primary purpose of the AM Briefing video series?
The AM Briefing video series, presented by microtrader.com, aims to provide traders with pre-market analysis and insights for the upcoming trading day. It covers market news drivers, discusses specific trade ideas and setups from the previous night's "Battle Plan", and identifies key price levels and trends to watch. The overall goal is to help traders make informed decisions and "trade better" by understanding market dynamics and potential opportunities or risks.

What is the significance of the "Battle Plan" and "strong levels" in the trading strategy?
The "Battle Plan" is a crucial pre-market document shared with members, outlining detailed trade ideas and setups. The presenter highlights its importance by acknowledging members who read it multiple times for preparation. "Strong levels" are key price points, often indicated by an indicator provided to group members, that act as significant support or resistance. They are used to identify entry points, set stop-loss orders (e.g., "anywhere under the strong level"), and understand potential turning points in price action. The ability of price to hold above or break below these strong levels dictates the market's immediate direction and provides confidence for adding to or exiting positions.

How does the briefing incorporate personal development and faith into trading?
The briefing begins with a scripture from Romans 12:2, "Do not be conformed to this age but be transformed by the renewing of your mind." The presenter interprets this in the context of resisting cultural values that prioritise "my truth" and instead encourages "renewing your mind by getting back into the word and doing verse by verse study." This suggests an underlying philosophy that disciplined thought and adherence to fundamental principles (analogous to scripture study) can lead to better decision-making, not just in life but also in the volatile environment of trading.

What are the key considerations for traders after a "high energy day"?
After a "high energy day" in the market, the presenter advises traders to "moderate some expectations" because "not much" typically happens. This suggests that periods of high volatility or significant price moves are often followed by consolidation or quieter trading. Traders should avoid expecting similar dramatic moves immediately and instead adjust their strategies to potentially slower-paced conditions, possibly looking for smaller, more contained moves or waiting for clearer signals.

What is the current market sentiment and recommended approach for long positions?
Based on the analysis, the market is currently "laddering down," indicating that "the bears are in control." The inability to break above the overnight high suggests that "price needs to come further down to grab more buyers." As a result, the presenter strongly advises that "longs should be cautious" and "longs should be small." This means that traders looking to go long should do so with smaller position sizes and be extremely vigilant for signs of weakness, as the prevailing trend is bearish. The shift in tone (from down move to up move) would only be confirmed by "laddering above the bull bear line" and potentially a "second ladder."

What is the "missed trade of the day" concept and how should traders react to it?
The "missed trade of the day" refers to a trading opportunity that a trader did not manage to take advantage of. The presenter's advice is clear: "no big deal you stay out of the way and you trade the turnaround if presented." This emphasizes the importance of not chasing trades or feeling compelled to enter a position if the initial opportunity is missed. Instead, traders should remain patient, avoid impulsive actions, and wait for a clear "turnaround" or a new, well-defined setup to emerge before entering the market.

What are the most important levels to watch for the current trading day?
The most important levels for the day include "today's halfback," which represents half the distance of a previous price move and where the market is currently situated. Another critical level is a specific swing low mentioned in the previous night's video, which acts as a logical stop-loss point for those who were long in a short-covering rally. Finally, the "bull bear line," located at 6441.50, is identified as a significant level. Breaking and holding above this line, potentially with a "second ladder," would signify a change in the market's bearish tone.

How are trend lines used in the analysis, and what is the current trend?
Trend lines are drawn on charts to identify the direction and strength of price movement. Initially, they are drawn "through the bodies" of candlesticks to provide the earliest notification of price approaching the line. Once the "body gets tested," the line may be adjusted to the "wick" for further refinement. The current analysis indicates that the market is "certainly in a bit of a downtrend," despite previous "parabolic" moves. An overnight trend line further supports the observation of a "little bit of a parabolic move here to the south," reinforcing the cautious stance for long positions.