Thursday Sep 11: Live Room Insights and Key Zones for ES & MES Futures

Thursday September 11, 2025

Traders were urged to exercise heightened caution ahead of a volatile week marked by CPI data, contract rollovers, and the upcoming FOMC meeting. Micros Trader emphasized the importance of initial balance (IB) levels, noting their predictive power, particularly the tendency for the ES to test one IB after opening near the other. The session offered strategic insights into volume-based level defense and emphasized journaling and discipline over impulsive trading. A devotional segment concluded the session, drawing parallels between preparation in trading and spiritual sharpening of one’s tools.
☀️ AM BRIEFING

Opening Remarks

Good morning, everybody. Welcome to the AM Briefing for CPI and September 11th—another significant date in our history.

Contract rollover starts Monday and Tuesday—be very cautious trading during this period.

Tip of the Day: Contract Rollover

A lot of professional traders will actually take off Monday and Tuesday. Then, of course, we have FOMC next week and option expiration. Be cautious here. Be mindful of the contract rollover and don't get yourself into trouble. Protect yourself from yourself. Contract rollover is no joke.

Market Events & Key Levels

Today we have CPI and unemployment claims—both are big drivers of volatility. Tomorrow brings sentiment and expectations, and next week brings contract rollover, FOMC, and option expiration—major volatility catalysts.

Opening Price & Essentials Indicator

As the day begins, a few levels are really important. The first is the opening price. That is something our Essentials Indicator tracks—it’s funny, price happens to be right now at the exact opening. Our Essentials Indicator plots out the opening price, and I find that very important.

We also track VWAP. It doesn’t necessarily give us an entry, but it gives us important information. You’ll also see a slightly lighter green box on the indicator—that’s the IB range, the high and low of the first hour of trading.

IB High and Low Manual Markings

I still manually mark out IB highs and lows. I have a shortcut template for marking these quickly. Some of the statistics surrounding this are very insightful. Let me pull this up from the Core Strategy Academy.

Glossary of Key Terms

  • IB (Initial Balance): The high and low of the first trading hour.
  • VWAP: Volume Weighted Average Price — a key benchmark for institutional traders.

IB Range Statistics

  • In about 98% of cases, either the IB high or IB low will be broken.
  • The IB high is taken more often than the IB low—likely due to ES’s long-term bullish bias.
  • Both levels are taken only 30% of the time.
  • Only 2% of the time, neither are broken.

I treat the IB high and low like their own session—they are just as important as RTH highs and lows.

Uncanny Behavior Around IBs

It’s uncanny how often ES opens near one of the IBs and then takes out the opposite IB. When we’re live on Zoom and that pattern appears, it often plays out. I love when it races to the opposite end because it often creates a trap and pulls back into the range. If price comes back into the IB range, I typically don’t counter that move—I want to go with it.

If price comes back to the opening, that is often a strong TP zone—use the opening as a first target.

Comparing IB to Overnight Levels

I treat the IB highs and lows with more significance—or at least equal significance—as the overnight high and low. The first hour has the most volume, and those levels are more likely to be defended by market participants.

Strong Level Considerations for CPI

Pulling in last night’s battle plan, I’m interested if price gets down into certain areas. I’ve seen CPI candles go 200 points. If price shoots straight up, I have zero interest. If it drops and reclaims certain zones, then I’m interested.

CPI Reaction Observations

So far, it’s a mild reaction. A lot of people YOLO their evaluations on CPI and get crushed when the move isn’t one-directional. Battle plan trade #1 didn’t materialize. Reaction was mild—just 27 points. Core CPI came in line; unemployment was worse than expected.

"If the ax is dull and one does not sharpen the edge, then he must use more strength, but wisdom brings success."

Essay Format Questions

  1. What emotion affected your trade today?
  2. How will you respond differently next time?

Practical Application & Journaling

Plan your day. Use our battle plan and AM Briefing as your pre-flight routine. During trading, focus on your mapped high-probability setups. If price action isn’t favorable, step back and wait. Journaling is where the real improvement happens. It's best done during your session—not at the end of the day. Track your discipline, not just your results.

Brute Force vs. Wisdom

The futures market punishes brute force—revenge trading, over-leveraging, and over-trading. These are signs of dull tools. Wisdom means pausing to sharpen your edge, refining your analysis, and preparing with discipline.

"Prayer is powerful. Evil is real. And we are in spiritual warfare."

Resources for Prayer & Spiritual Growth

If you're looking for powerful prayer resources, check out ANEKO Press on YouTube. They have amazing audio books like "How to Pray" and many Spurgeon sermons. These are great to listen to while working or relaxing.

❓ FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS

What is the Initial Balance (IB) and why is it important in futures trading?

A: The Initial Balance (IB) refers to the high and low range established during the first hour of the RTH session. Micros Trader uses this level to gauge early sentiment and potential breakouts. Statistically, either the IB high or low is broken 98% of the time, making it a highly significant structure in intraday strategy.

How should traders prepare for contract rollover periods?

A: During contract rollover—usually beginning the Monday or Tuesday before expiration—Micros Trader advises heightened caution. Volume shifts from the expiring contract to the new front-month, often creating disjointed price action. Many professional traders sit out these days to avoid unnecessary risk.

What tools or indicators does Micros Trader use during the AM Briefing?

A: The AM Briefing leverages the Essentials Indicator, which highlights key session levels like the opening price, VWAP, and the IB range. These tools are not used for direct entries but to provide high-quality contextual awareness. Combined with journaling and a daily battle plan, they form the foundation of Micros Trader's process.

📚 RESOURCES FOR FUTURES TRADERS

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