Wednesday September 3, 2025

Q: What is the significance of 'strong levels' in the trading strategy discussed?

Strong levels are crucial reference points in the trading strategy because price tends to react predictably to them. These levels are used to craft 'battle plan' trades, indicating potential areas for price to bounce, reverse, or continue its trend. Traders observe how price behaves around these levels to identify entry and exit points, set stop losses, and anticipate market movements.

Q: Why is trading on the day after a bank holiday often discouraged?

The day after a bank holiday is generally considered rarely a day worth trading due to increased market volatility and unpredictable behaviour. Micros Trader advises against trading on such days, citing the prevalence of 'Twitter scars' from the previous day's market activity.

Q: What is the 'battle plan' and how is it used by traders?

The battle plan is a pre-market analysis published each evening that maps out potential trade ideas for the following day. It outlines specific scenarios based on anticipated price movements around strong levels and other market indicators. It serves as a guide, while allowing flexibility for real-time market developments.

Q: What is the advice regarding 'counter' trades?

When taking counter trades, the advice is to prioritise protecting capital by taking profits at break even points. This minimises risk when going against the market's current direction, as these trades are inherently more speculative.

Q: What is the role of patience and waiting for new developments in this trading approach?

Patience is a key virtue in this trading strategy. If there is no clear setup, the advice is to wait for something new, even if it takes several hours. This prevents traders from forcing trades when the market does not present actionable opportunities.

Q: How does the speaker manage risk when taking trades?

Risk management practices include taking small profits, using break even exits for counter-trades, and adhering to predefined stop-loss levels. For example, a three-to-four point stop loss is mentioned for a potential short trade.

n Wednesday’s AM Briefing, Micros Trader stressed the importance of rest and advised caution when trading the day after a bank holiday, noting such sessions are rarely profitable. He highlighted upcoming economic events, including the JOLTS report, Thursday’s pre-NFP session he calls a “no-trade day,” and Friday’s NFP live stream. His strategy centers on the use of strong levels to guide battle plans, with adjustments made for sudden market movements such as overnight spikes. While bullish momentum remains intact, he warned of potential reversals and underscored the need for strict risk management, particularly with counter-trades.

☀️ AM BRIEFING

Opening Remarks

Micros Trader begins the Wednesday AM Briefing by stressing the importance of rest. “Number one, rest is very important,” he says, underscoring that traders must be sharp to make sound decisions. He also cautions against trading immediately after a bank holiday, warning that “the day after a bank holiday is rarely a day worth trading.” According to him, many traders were hurt in yesterday’s session, leaving “Twitter scars” as evidence. His advice is to take time off around bank holidays, calling it “loving advice.”

Micros Trader also shares the scripture of the week:

"First Thessalonians 5:21 – but test all things, hold on to what is good."

He applies this principle to life, marriage, and trading, reminding traders to remain analytical and cautious.

Patience is another major theme. “If you’re flat like me, there’s nothing to do here. If we were to start trading live right now, I would literally just go, ‘I’ve got nothing here, I need something new.’ You just wait for something new.”

Market Calendar and Anticipated Volatility

Looking ahead, Micros Trader notes several important calendar events. The JOLTS report is scheduled for 30 minutes after the market opens today. Thursday, the day before Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP), is typically “a great no-trade day.” On Friday morning, he will live stream the NFP candle, a major driver of volatility.

Strong Levels and Battle Plans

The core strategy highlighted in this briefing is the use of “strong levels.” Micros Trader explains, “This is why these strong levels are so good in our group for trading—because price tends to behave very well with those levels.”

He explains how battle plans are developed: by reviewing what happened today, last week, and last month, then identifying current strong levels and deciding which trades are worth taking. He points out that sudden, unexpected market spikes—like a “stupid spike” after the close—require reworking the plan to adapt to new conditions.

Micros Trader also discusses an overnight setup from Battle Plan Trade #5 at 3:00 AM EST. While this wasn’t ideal for U.S. traders, he notes it was “a beautiful entry” for international participants, based on reentering a range and retesting a daily trend line.

Review of Recent Trading and Trade Management

Micros Trader reflects on recent trading experiences, including a missed opportunity: “Missed me by one tick, then eventually ran 30 points,” he recalls from a Zoom call. This transparency highlights the importance of reviewing performance honestly.

He distinguishes between counter-trading and trend-following. Counter-trades often result in break-even outcomes: “When you’re counter, it’s break even.” Effective risk management is crucial: “Just know where you’re wrong and get out.”

He references a Trump speech as an example of event-driven volatility, noting that he avoided trading it because the market could have easily dropped 50 points.

For traders who entered long positions yesterday or from a battle plan setup, his advice is to stay long and manage carefully: “Just play perfect chess—if it gets you out, it gets you out.”

Micros Trader also gives guidance on stop-loss placement. For potential shorts, he suggests using the strong level as the “warning shot to bulls” or the fair value gap as a stop, estimating three to four points of risk.

Current Market Outlook

Micros Trader notes that the bulls have continued their journey upward, with price now above the previous day’s high. However, he cautions that the current area could easily produce a reversal. This underpins the logic of Battle Plan Trade #4, a possible counter-short setup.

He also observes a potential “loading down sequence” beginning to form, another sign that a market reversal might be near.

❓ FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS

Frequently Asked Questions – Wednesday AM Briefing

1. What is the significance of "strong levels" in the trading strategy discussed?

A: "Strong levels" are crucial reference points in the trading strategy because price tends to react predictably to them. These levels are used to craft "battle plan" trades, indicating potential areas for price to bounce, reverse, or continue its trend. Traders observe how price behaves around these levels to identify entry and exit points, set stop losses, and anticipate market movements. For instance, Micros Trader notes how price moved efficiently from one strong level to another, almost reaching a third, demonstrating their reliability.

2. Why is trading on the day after a bank holiday often discouraged?

A: The day after a bank holiday is generally considered "rarely a day worth trading" due to increased market volatility and unpredictable behaviour. Micros Trader advises against trading on such days, citing the prevalence of "Twitter scars" (significant losses or frustrations shared on social media) from the previous day's market activity. This suggests that the market may experience unusual movements or a lack of clear direction, making it challenging for traders to find profitable opportunities.

3. What is the "battle plan" and how is it used by traders?

A: The "battle plan" is a pre-market analysis published each evening that maps out potential trade ideas for the following day. It outlines specific scenarios, such as long or short positions, based on anticipated price movements around "strong levels" and other market indicators. For example, Micros Trader adjusted a battle plan to include more mapped-out trades after an unexpected price spike. The battle plan serves as a guide, providing traders with a framework for decision-making, though flexibility is maintained for real-time market developments.

4. What is the advice regarding "counter" trades?

A: When taking "counter" trades (trades against the prevailing trend), the advice is to prioritise protecting capital by taking profits at "break even" points. Micros Trader illustrates this with personal examples of taking counter-long positions that resulted in multiple "break even" exits. This approach minimises risk when going against the market's current direction, as these trades are inherently more speculative. Once the market potentially turns in the anticipated direction, it becomes an "easy trade long," allowing for a more confident and sustained position.

5. What are Non-Farm Payroll (NFP) days and how do they impact trading?

A: Non-Farm Payroll (NFP) days are significant economic event days that can heavily influence market movements. The day before NFP is usually considered a "great no trade day" due to the anticipation and uncertainty surrounding the announcement. On NFP day itself, Micros Trader indicates they will be live streaming, suggesting that while it's a high-impact day, it can present trading opportunities for those prepared to navigate its volatility. The mention of "JOLTS" (Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey) data on Wednesday also highlights the importance of economic news drivers in shaping trading decisions.

6. What is the role of patience and waiting for new developments in this trading approach?

A: Patience is a key virtue in this trading strategy. If a trader finds themselves "flat" (without an open position) and there's no clear setup based on the current market, the advice is to "just wait for something new." This could mean waiting for an hour or even five hours for the market to present a clear, actionable opportunity. Micros Trader emphasises that rushing into trades when there's "nothing to do" is detrimental, reinforcing the idea of only engaging when the market aligns with established battle plan scenarios or new, favourable conditions emerge.

7. How does the speaker manage risk when taking trades?

A: Risk management is evident through several practices. Firstly, Micros Trader often takes small profits (e.g., a "ten-pointer") to secure gains, especially in uncertain conditions or when counter-trading. Secondly, the use of "break even" exits for counter-trades is a core risk mitigation strategy. Thirdly, the battle plan includes mapped-out stop-loss levels, such as using the "overnight halfback" or a specific "strong level" to define where a trade should be exited if it goes against the intended direction. For example, a "three-to-four point stop loss" is mentioned for a potential short trade, indicating a clear, predetermined exit point.

8. What is the overall philosophy regarding profitable trades and runners?

A: The philosophy balances securing profits with the potential for larger gains through "runners." While Micros Trader often takes quick, smaller profits (e.g., a 10-pointer), they acknowledge that "under different circumstances and different time of the day," they might keep a "runner" (a portion of the trade kept open to capture further price movement). However, the immediate priority is often to capture a reasonable profit and exit, especially if conditions are not ideal for holding a longer position. This suggests a pragmatic approach to trading, prioritising consistent, smaller gains over chasing every large move, while still recognising the potential of a well-managed runner.