ES Chart Setups & Trade Opportunties
📖 AM Briefing #670: Trade Plan Hours, Battle Plan Review & The Golden Coin
George breaks down critical trading hours, reviews this week's challenging price action, and explains why the "Golden Coin" strategy keeps you out of trouble when markets aren't cooperating. With PCE data dropping 30 minutes after the open and FOMC next week, he's standing down unless we get fresh levels or a proper vomit day.
- Know Your Best Trading Hours: Section 5 of the trade plan builder is all about hours of operation. When are YOU the best you? George knows he's a much better AM trader and that his performance drops at a specific hour after Zoom ends. Use trade analytics to discover if you're better AM or PM, early week or late week, and whether you should only trade when we're trading as a group. Trading requires the best you—so trade when you ARE the best you.
- Asia, London, New York—Pick Your Window: If George trades Asia or London, it's battle plan trades only. No core strategy entries outside his prime hours. In the afternoon, same deal—battle plan locations only. Figure out your optimal windows and stick to them. Getting older means getting smarter about when you bring your A-game to the screen.
- This Week Has Been Crap (Let's Be Honest): Bulls pulled off another higher low and higher high, but what a challenging spot to trade. We're stuck in the same range, which means the same battle plan setups for three days straight. We desperately need fresh levels—either an old school vomit day or at least a rotation back down to 6,800. Remember: you do NOT need to trade tomorrow.
- Friday Rules + FOMC + Contract Rollover = Stand Down: It's Friday, FOMC starts next week, and contract rollover begins the week after. The risk of an "uglier than your mama" liquidation break is HIGH. If we get a major vomit move, be smart and stand down unless it's a bell-to-bell vomit day (which usually lasts one to three hours). We'll trade it live if it sets up properly.
- News Drivers: PCE 30 Minutes After Open: Today we've got PCE at 30 minutes after the opening bell, plus consumer sentiment and inflation expectations. Next week brings jobs data and FOMC. This week has been range-bound garbage, but next week should deliver an expansion of range and better trading opportunities than what we've suffered through this week.
- Battle Plan Recap—Right Trade, Right Location: Sunday night's short was amazing if you got entry. Tuesday had no activated trades. Wednesday's long setup had unfortunate timing but was the right idea. Yesterday's live YouTube call for a short at the opening (higher risk, dial it down) targeted Wednesday's POC. If you kept a single runner back and peeled contracts at POC, you did great—even if bulls ultimately stayed in control.
- The Golden Coin Has Two Sides: When you stay in a runner, you get two benefits. Side one: a lotto ticket if price rolls your direction (yesterday could've been a 50-pointer, got close at 40). Side two: you're not trying to trade the crap in between because you're already in a winning trade with contracts peeled off. This is the secret sauce that keeps you out of trouble during choppy, range-bound weeks.
- What George Is Watching Today: We're hovering above the range. He's still looking for rotation back down. If we continue north, probably not interested. If we take out the overnight low with very snappy ladder-back price action, might consider a long. But honestly, without the "slam back under" move he wanted to see, bulls are too firmly in control for shorts here. His DOM won't even be open unless something juicy sets up.
- Our Battle Plan Is the Best Kept Secret: George genuinely believes the battle plan trades and overall battle plan structure is the best kept secret for ES futures traders. Keep looking for the right trade in the right location consistently, and you're going to do very, very well. The nightly review (currently free to everyone, may change in January) breaks down what we were looking for, what happened, and what we called live.
- Get Tomorrow's Trades Tonight: Visit microstrader.com and click battle to access your battle plan.
Opening Remarks
Micros Trader begins the AM Briefing #670 by emphasizing the importance of refining trading discipline, especially during weeks like this one—labeled a “crap week” due to low-quality setups and low volatility. This kind of environment underscores the value of strategic patience and data-informed decision-making. Today’s discussion focuses on three critical areas: defining one’s "Hours of Operation," understanding current market structure and risks, and applying the “Golden Coin” strategy to manage runners effectively.
Trader Discipline: Defining "Hours of Operation"
Micros Trader highlights a foundational concept: defining your personal "Hours of Operation"—the specific time blocks when you're mentally, emotionally, and physically primed to trade well. This isn't about forcing trades during arbitrary hours but about recognizing when you're the “best you.”
Traders are prompted to perform rigorous self-analysis:
- Are you more profitable in the AM or PM session?
- Do certain weekdays yield stronger results?
- Does discipline deteriorate when trading solo?
- Do losses spike after a certain time each day?
Micros Trader shares personal insights, noting consistent outperformance during the AM. However, after a three-hour decline in performance midday, results tend to improve again late in the session. This pattern, backed by performance tracking software (compatible with TraderVate, Ninja Trader, etc.), informs the decision to trade only during optimal windows.
Furthermore, during non-U.S. sessions like Asia or London, Micros Trader only takes “battle plan trades”—pre-identified high-probability setups—and avoids discretionary core strategy entries altogether. The message is clear: discipline means knowing when not to trade.
Current Market Assessment and Battle Plan
The market is range-bound and lacks clarity. Bulls have built another higher low and higher high, but conditions remain fragile.
Micros Trader emphasizes that a substantial downward move—a “vomit day” or rotation down to 6,800—is needed to shake the market out of its current stasis and create new levels for actionable trades. Until then, the battle plan remains unchanged from the past three sessions.
Traders are warned of elevated risk: the chance of a sudden and harsh liquidation event is high. If such a move occurs, the advice is to step aside for one to three hours unless it turns into a full bell-to-bell trend day. "I don’t need to trade tomorrow," Micros Trader reminds, reinforcing the power of restraint.
Catalysts are on the horizon. "Friday rules" are in effect, and next week brings the FOMC meeting and contract rollover—events likely to introduce significant volatility and directional movement.
The “Golden Coin” Strategy for Managing Runners
Micros Trader introduces the “Golden Coin” as a two-sided strategy for managing runners—the remaining portion of a profitable trade that is left open after partial exits.
- Side One: The Lotto Ticket
Holding a runner allows traders to participate in potentially explosive moves, such as 40- to 50-point trends, with minimal additional risk. It offers exposure to large moves that occasionally emerge, particularly after economic news or trend shifts. - Side Two: Mental Edge
The second benefit is psychological. Having a runner in play reduces the urge to force new trades in low-quality conditions. This prevents over-trading and protects mental and financial capital. As Micros Trader puts it: "You don’t have to find trades in this crap."
This dual benefit—profit potential and emotional restraint—makes the “Golden Coin” a powerful tactic in a trader’s toolkit.
Weekly Performance and Trade Analysis
Despite the difficult market, the battle plan has continued to provide structure and guidance.
- Sunday: A short setup played out beautifully, resulting in a strong move.
- Tuesday: No setups were triggered, a win in terms of discipline.
- Wednesday: A long setup worked in terms of location, though the entry timing was imperfect.
- Thursday: A high-risk, counter-trend short was executed live. It hit the first target at Wednesday’s POC before reversing, consistent with bullish control.
Micros Trader stresses that the long-term edge comes from consistently targeting “the right trade at the right location.” The battle plan process is referred to as the “best kept secret for S&P futures traders.”
Immediate Market Outlook and Economic Drivers
A potential short setup was monitored: a break above RTH and overnight highs followed by a sharp rejection. However, this failed to materialize. Instead, the market broke out and successfully retested the top of the range, confirming bullish control.
Micros Trader concludes, “There are no shorts here.” With that, no trades will be taken from current levels, and the DOM will remain closed until a better opportunity arises.
Today’s key economic releases include:
- PCE data (30 minutes after open)
- Consumer Sentiment
- Inflation Expectations
Looking ahead, next week brings the jobs report and FOMC meeting—both expected to introduce range expansion and create a more dynamic trading environment compared to the stagnant conditions of the current week.
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