Friday Dec 12: Get Ready to Trade: Key S&P Futures Prep for Our AM Room

BEST ES Setups

Friday December 12, 2025

The upcoming trading week presents one of the highest-risk environments of the quarter, as multiple macroeconomic releases converge with structural market transitions. Traders are urged to exercise exceptional discipline, particularly around CPI data, options expiration, and the contract rollover period. The market’s recent bullish momentum continues, with major indices near or at record highs and technical indicators signaling continued strength. Meanwhile, Micros Trader has launched a feedback initiative aimed at improving the AM Briefing, while encouraging traders to track performance across special-event days for long-term strategic refinement.
📖 AM Briefing Overview & Key Points - Contract Rollover Week Ahead

Welcome to today's AM briefing where we're looking ahead to next week's Level 10 event calendar and reviewing yesterday's powerful trend day that rewarded disciplined traders who stayed long. We're in the heart of contract rollover with multiple high-impact economic releases coming, so let's get you prepared with the right battle plan approach.

  1. Next Week is a Level 10 Week: Mark your calendars folks - we've got the contract rollover Tuesday (we typically roll Tuesday, some roll Monday), non-farm employment change and retail sales hitting Tuesday during rollover, then OPEX Thursday and CPI Friday. That's red days stacked on special days. What does your trade plan say about trading CPI? Maybe one hour after the market opens? And OPEX Friday - are you trading it or sitting it out? Mark these as special days in your settings so you can track your performance during these volatile periods.
  2. Contract Rollover Strategy: Thursday, Friday, Monday, Tuesday - these are the core rollover days you need to track. Go to your settings, click number four (special days and trader error tags), and add "contract rollover" as a custom special day label. Do you like the price action during rollovers or not? Maybe you love it, but take that into consideration when planning your week. This data will help you understand your edge during these periods.
  3. Yesterday's Lesson - Hold That Runner: If you got long at the battle plan level yesterday morning, you could have closed your platform, gone to the supermarket, and let that runner work. We're talking 60-68 point moves if you just held through the day. Several traders executed this beautifully - book some profits at strong levels, keep that runner with your stop at entry or under the RTH halfback, and walk away. Prop traders with auto-liquidation at end of day got this gift wrapped.
  4. Don't Short This - The Most Important Call: When we were knifing down yesterday, we outlined two scenarios - a long if bulls defended, a short if they failed. We ONLY got the long setup, and I was very clear: "Do not short this, do not short this." Mario commented on YouTube that this call saved his P&L - he'd booked great shorts early but was eager to short again. Listen to the voice of reason folks. Above the bull bear line, you focus on longs in all the right places.
  5. Core Strategy Delivered Five Perfect Longs: Yesterday gave us five textbook core strategy long entries as price stayed above the bull bear line and RTH halfback. Each one was a winner for traders following the systematic approach. This is what we mean by trading the levels as they develop - the battle plan identified the key area, price action confirmed the setup, and disciplined execution delivered the results.
  6. Current Market Position - Near All-Time Highs: Russell and Dow made new all-time highs overnight. NQ is within 50 points of its all-time high. ES is hovering in the upper distribution near record territory. We're above the bull bear line with strength, testing and retesting support before accelerating higher. I don't particularly enjoy trading right near all-time highs, but if we get a push down to diagonal trend line meeting horizontal support at the RTH halfback, that's as beautiful as it gets for a long setup.
  7. Today's Battle Plan Approach: We're looking for potential battle plan #2 if we reclaim key levels, though it's Friday in the middle of contract rollover so proceed with caution. The ideal scenario? A push down to where diagonal trend line meets horizontal support at the RTH halfback (mark that before the market opens or it resets), bulls defend, and we get a quality long opportunity targeting all-time highs. Stop loss either at entry or 5-10 points under halfback depending on your risk tolerance.
  8. Year-End Seasonality Reality Check: Looking at historical seasonality through December, we're seeing a lot of chop and slop, then a run toward year-end. Be careful assuming there will be massive profit-taking and selling - historically that's not what the data shows. Don't fight the tape based on assumptions about what "should" happen at year-end.
  9. Help Me Improve the AM Briefing: I'm doing my end-of-year analysis and would love your feedback. There's a link in the description to an anonymous Airtable form with three simple questions: What do you like? What don't you like? What should I add? Takes two minutes. I've done 675 of these briefings and I want to make them even better. Based on feedback, I've already made the last seven months of AM briefings public instead of unlisted so prospective traders can see the archive.
  10. Get Tomorrow's Trades Tonight: Visit microstrader.com and click battle to access your battle plan. I'll see my traders live 15 minutes before the market opens.
☀️ AM BRIEFING

Opening Remarks

Micros Trader delivered the AM Briefing with a heightened sense of urgency, noting that the upcoming week is categorized as a "Level 10" event. This level of caution stems from the rare convergence of high-impact economic releases and structural market shifts. Key scheduled events include contract rollover, non-farm employment data, retail sales, CPI, and options expiration (OPEX). These elements collectively create a highly volatile and potentially treacherous trading environment. Micros Trader emphasized the necessity of strict adherence to one’s trade plan and risk protocols, especially on "red days."

Forward Outlook: A "Level 10" Week of Caution

The upcoming week is packed with high-impact catalysts that demand proactive planning and measured execution. This is not the time to operate casually or improvise. Traders should carefully review their personal trade rules for special event days.

Key Economic Events & Market Drivers

  • Monday: Contract rollover period begins. Price action may turn unpredictable as some participants shift contracts.
  • Tuesday: A potent combination of contract rollover, non-farm employment data, and retail sales releases. Live coverage is planned.
  • Thursday: The day before OPEX and the day of the OPEC meeting. Classified as a "red day."
  • Friday: OPEX and the CPI report converge, making this another high-risk session.
Trade Plan Adherence: Know what your trade plan says about CPI days and OPEX Fridays. Avoid improvisation.

December Seasonality

Micros Trader discussed the typical behavior of markets in December. Historically, mid-December is known for choppy, indecisive price action, while year-end tends to produce bullish momentum. A key caution was issued: don’t assume heavy selling will dominate the month. Contrary to common belief, widespread profit-taking doesn’t usually cause major December declines.

Analysis of Recent Market Dynamics & Core Strategies

Yesterday's session exemplified a textbook trend day, providing multiple profitable long setups.

Recap of a "Monster Day" for Long Positions

  • Two possible trade scenarios were outlined: one bullish, one bearish. The market invalidated the short thesis and exclusively offered long setups.
  • Once price action cleared the bull bear line, the directional bias became firmly long.
  • Four distinct core strategy long signals emerged throughout the session.
  • The repeated reminder, "Don't short this," proved critical. Trader Mario credited that guidance with preserving his P&L, noting he had previously banked some short profits but was tempted to re-enter shorts.

The "Hold That Runner" Strategy

One of the session’s most valuable takeaways was the power of holding a runner during strong directional moves.

  • Traders who entered early and held a portion of their position throughout the session could have netted up to 60 points.
  • Core strategy longs had the potential to deliver as much as 68 points.
  • The “go to the supermarket” method—where traders physically step away after setting their trade—was highlighted as a tactic to avoid over-management.
  • For prop firm users, such as those trading with TopStep, this strategy allows for automated position management with a break-even stop or trailing logic.

Current Market Posture & Potential Trade Setups

Micros Trader confirmed a strong bullish posture heading into the session. Multiple indices, including the Dow and Russell, hit new all-time highs overnight.

Index Performance Overview

  • Dow Jones (YM): New all-time high in overnight session.
  • Russell 2000 (RTY): Also posted a new all-time high.
  • S&P 500 (ES): Within 50 points of its record high.
  • Nasdaq 100 (NQ): Lags slightly compared to the others.
A pullback into RTH halfback plus diagonal support is a high-probability long. Target = all-time highs.

Process Enhancement & Feedback Initiatives

Micros Trader is implementing two new initiatives focused on improving trade performance and community engagement.

Tracking Special Days

  • Traders are encouraged to log “contract rollover” as a custom tag in their journals.
  • Suggested tracking window: Thursday through Tuesday surrounding the rollover.
  • This will help build a dataset for personal review and refinement of strategy.

AM Briefing Feedback Program

  • An anonymous Airtable form is live for collecting feedback.
  • Viewers are asked what they enjoy, dislike, or want added to the briefings.
  • A past viewer suggestion led to the archive of briefings being made public.
  • Input is specifically requested on whether to reintroduce the “scripture of the day” segment.
📚 RESOURCES FOR FUTURES TRADERS

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