Monday Dec 8: Most Important Level on ES
📺 VIDEO TIMELINE WITH SEGMENT DESCRIPTIONS
0:00 – Opening & Devotional Format Change
Micros Trader introduces the AM Briefing and explains that full devotionals will now be separate videos to avoid getting buried.
2:51 – Trade Plan Builder: Section 6 – High Risk Trading Days
Focuses on planning for high-risk events like FOMC, CPI, and NFP. Traders are encouraged to pre-define strategies and avoid gambling during volatile sessions.
6:08 – Journaling Special Days & Trade Planning
Explains how to journal “special days” like FOMC to refine trade plans based on past performance. Emphasizes journaling software and trade review protocols.
7:18 – This Week’s Market Outlook & News
Outlines major economic events, contract rollover, and the importance of preparing for increased volatility near all-time highs.
8:43 – Course, Badges & End-of-Day Charting
Encourages members to earn their badges, submit charts, and complete end-of-day chart reviews to improve trade execution and discipline.
10:36 – Chart Review & Trend Line Setup
Breaks down market structure, key levels, and a critical trend line. Highlights proximity to all-time highs and staying aligned with bullish momentum.
13:31 – Final Thoughts & Market Rundown
Analyzes broader market behavior (NQ, ES, Russell, Dow) and reiterates the importance of the trend line and bull/bear line at 6763.
MOST IMPORTANT LEVEL ON THE ES CHART
Monday December 8, 2025
Micros Trader used Monday’s AM Briefing to emphasize risk management ahead of a volatile week marked by FOMC events and contract rollover. He advised traders to predefine their approach to high-risk trading days, citing the importance of journaling and strategy discipline. With markets approaching all-time highs, the focus shifted to a critical trend line and the 6763 bull/bear level as key areas for trade decisions. Despite bearish expectations, market structure continues to show strength, and traders are urged to remain aligned with prevailing bullish momentum.📖 AM Briefing Overview & Key Points - December 8th
Episode 671 kicks off the week with ES sitting just 49 points from all-time highs. We're discussing high-risk trading days (especially with FOMC Wednesday), the critical trend line and bull-bear level that matter most right now, and why knowing when NOT to trade is just as important as your entries.
- High-Risk Trading Days Protocol: Section 6 of the new trade plan builder focuses on knowing when NOT to trade. This week brings FOMC Wednesday, the day before FOMC (Tuesday with JOLTS), the day after FOMC, plus contract rollover next Tuesday. Pre-plan how you'll handle these days NOW - don't wait until you're drunk with trading and the chart is tempting you to be dumb. Will you trade SIM only? Take the day off? Trade cash accounts only? Define your protocol before the volatility hits.
- Your Entries Don't Matter If You Can't Manage Trades: Last night's battle plan (unlocked for everyone, link in description) covers a critical lesson - you can have the best entries in the world and still go broke if you don't know how to manage your trade once you're in it. This is essential reading for anyone working through prop evaluations or managing funded accounts.
- The Two Most Important Levels This Week: There's a beautiful trend line anchored at the bottom of key blue candles on the 30-minute chart that's been touching perfectly - I draw it tight to get notified FIRST when we touch it. This trend line combined with the bull-bear line at 6763 are your single most important levels. These two lines tell you everything you need to know about market positioning right now.
- We're Laddering Up Towards All-Time Highs: ES is just 49 points from all-time highs - that's a hop, skip, and a jump away. NQ, Russell, and NES are all showing strength with upward VWAPs. Everybody and their mother thought ES was gonna jump off a cliff and go down several hundred points. It didn't. It trapped traders and snapped back towards the highs. To think we won't hit all-time highs this week would be naive, but what do I know?
- Be Careful Shorting Too Quickly: How many shorts are you looking for here? Yes, there are shorts to take - we mapped them out last week and caught some nice moves. But generally we want to be looking for strong pullback evidence of laddering back because the all-time high is the biggest magnet on the chart. Until something changes, you have to be on the side of the bulls. This isn't bearish yet.
- Watch Out Below Level Matters: The "watch out below" level (almost named it "warning shot to bulls") sits under the bull-bear line. If we get underneath there, going down towards 6810, 6800 seems like a fairly easy thing to do. But remember - bulls have controlled for hundreds of points. This is just the bull-bear line for this week specifically.
- Contract Rollover Next Week: This is the last week you're trading this contract. Next Tuesday it rolls over to a new contract, and contract rollover is rarely fun to trade. Combined with FOMC, the day after FOMC, and being near all-time highs - interesting week ahead of us. Trading around all-time highs is my least favorite place to trade, but we trade the levels as they develop.
- Weekly Journaling Prompt: If you're using Trader Meditations journaling software, this week's reflection is: "Where did you trade like a professional this week?" Each day when you journal, ask yourself where you traded like the professional you want to be and give yourself props for that. Acknowledge your wins.
- Devotional Update: The daily devotionals are getting their own separate videos in a playlist so they don't get buried in AM briefings that get unlisted the same day. We're returning to just sharing the scripture in the briefing like the first 500+ episodes. This week's scripture: Proverbs 24:16 - "For the righteous fall seven times and rises again, but the wicked stumbled in times of calamity."
- Get Tomorrow's Trades Tonight: Visit microstrader.com and click battle to access your battle plan. Tomorrow we'll be live streaming (link below), and we open the Zoom room 15 minutes before market open to map out trades together.
Opening Remarks
Good morning, everybody. Welcome to the AM Briefing brought to you by MicrosTrader.com for Monday, December 8th. This is episode 671—let's bring it.
This week's scripture is Proverbs 24:16:
"For the righteous falls seven times and rises again, but the wicked stumble in times of calamity."
I’m going to make a little change in our devotionals going forward, and it’s for a very important reason.
Devotional Format Update
The daily devotionals that I’ve been doing are getting buried inside the AM Briefing—which, by the way, gets unlisted the same day. No one on Friday wants to go back and listen to Monday’s AM Briefing. So, the devotionals are getting lost.
Going forward, full devotionals will be released as separate videos inside a playlist on my website. We'll return to the original format of just including the scripture in the AM Briefing, like we did for the first 500+ episodes. The in-depth devotional content will now live in its own space.
Trade Plan Builder: Section 6 – High Risk Trading Days
Tip of the day: We're still working through our new trade plan builder. We've completed the first five sections. Now we’re on Section 6—high risk trading days.
So far, we’ve covered:
- Declaration of business vendors
- Your progression plan to a cash account
- Risk parameters for your evaluations
- Hours of operation
Now, onto identifying and managing high risk trading days. Knowing when not to trade is critical to your success.
Of course, the AM Briefing will highlight these events, but you should be discovering them for yourself before they’re brought up here.
Mark your calendar and commit to stepping away from the charts on days that have historically hurt traders. For example, the day before Non-Farm Payroll (NFP) is often more dangerous than NFP itself. You learn this from journaling and being part of a group where iron sharpens iron.
Decide how you want to handle these days: Will you remove yourself completely? Will you de-leverage? Will you trade only after the ATR on a 3-minute chart drops below 8?
Essay Format Questions
- What is your trade plan for high-risk trading days like FOMC and CPI?
- Do you reduce size, sit out, or switch to SIM?
- Are you reviewing these “special days” in your journal for performance patterns?
Glossary of Key Terms
- Special Days: High-volatility sessions such as FOMC, CPI, OPEX, NFP. These are tagged in journaling software to evaluate past performance.
- ATR (Average True Range): A measure of volatility; used here on a 3-minute chart to gauge when to resume normal trading.
Battle Plan Highlight: Entry Isn’t Everything
In last night’s Sunday battle plan, there’s a free lesson available (link in the description). It’s about how you can have the best entries in the world and still go broke if you don’t know how to manage the trade. A must-read for futures traders.
This Week’s News & Market Volatility
- Monday: No major news
- Tuesday: JOLTS, day before FOMC
- Wednesday: FOMC + unemployment claims
Also, this is contract rollover week. Next Tuesday, we roll to the new contract. Combined with approaching all-time highs, this could be a choppy, tricky trading week.
Monday Reminders & Foundations Course
Every morning, we host the AM Briefing and then 15 minutes before the market opens, we open the Zoom room to go over our daily reminders and trade maps.
Starting in January, we’ll resume our Monday Lunch & Learn sessions—currently on break for December. Tuesday’s free live stream link is below.
Not a member yet? Check out the Foundations Course at MicrosTrader.com. If you do join, please earn your badges. Submit your charts, get feedback, submit again, and keep going until you pass. Your final badge is the Chartist badge.
Congrats to Christine and Joe A., who both earned their Chartist badges this past week. Christine appreciated the in-depth training, and Joe specifically asked for tough feedback—he earned it. His goal now: complete the end-of-day chart every day.
Essay Format Questions
- Where did I trade like a professional today?
- What was the mindset that allowed me to do so?
Chart Review: Laddering Up Near All-Time Highs
Last week was a grind, but we called the short move on Sunday and mapped out a nice long on Wednesday. We’re seeing solid laddering up—higher highs and higher lows.
On the 30-minute chart, I've anchored a trend line from the bottom of two key blue candles. This trend line has already proven itself with multiple touches and may be the most important level going into the week.
From Friday’s high, we’re just 49 points from the all-time high. We’re laddering up—so how many shorts are you really looking for?
Yes, there are short setups, but all-time highs are a major magnet. Many traders expected ES to drop hundreds of points—it didn’t. It snapped back hard. Don’t underestimate the pull of all-time highs.
Market Rundown: All-Time Highs in Sight
Let’s check out other markets:
- Russell: hugging the overnight line
- Dow: still in lower distribution
- NQ: strong move
- ES: in upper distribution, but not as strong as NQ
The all-time high is in vision. Nothing looks bearish at the moment. Upward or flat VWAP across the board. Be careful shorting this too early. What we want is a good pullback to go long.
Wrap-Up
Tomorrow we will be live streaming. Tonight’s battle plan is unlocked and available.
Thanks for joining. See you live 15 minutes before the market opens tomorrow.
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