Tuesday Dec 16: Inside the Micros Room: ES & MES Trade Plans and Price Zones
HOW TO TRADE MES MICROS
Tuesday December 16, 2025
Markets face heightened volatility as year-end institutional withdrawal gives way to small trader-driven action, creating what Micros Trader describes as “level 10 trading conditions.” With delayed non-farm payrolls, upcoming CPI data, and an OPEC meeting all in focus, traders are advised to navigate a well-defined range while closely monitoring the RTH low as a pivotal level. A detailed protocol for adjusting technical levels amid contract rollover was presented, ensuring accurate chart alignment for the new "H" contract. Educational efforts continue with the Trade Plan Builder, which urges traders to curate a personal archive of ideal setups through annotated screenshots.📖 AM Briefing Overview & Key Points - December 17th
Welcome to Tuesday's briefing covering contract rollover procedures, level 10 trading conditions, and critical range awareness. This week presents maximum risk with contract rollover, delayed non-farm payroll data, and FOMC aftermath - requiring extreme caution and disciplined trade management.
- Scripture & Trade Plan Builder - Section 11: "Test all things, hold on to what is good" (1 Thessalonians 5:21). This month we're focusing on picture perfect entries. Take screenshots of your ideal setups, mark them up with callouts or text tools, and build your portfolio of trade templates. Use the callout tool on your favorites toolbar to pinpoint specific price action and add detailed notes that move with your chart.
- Contract Rollover Made Simple: Here's the easiest way to adjust all your levels for the H contract. Put all levels in one folder, turn on back adjust, use your calculator to find the difference (57.5 points), then click the folder's gear icon and enter "+57.5" in displacement. This moves everything up automatically. Remember - the H contract has its own all-time high at 7014, and significant levels exist down to 6583. Anything further back loses relevance.
- Level 10 Trading Conditions This Week: We're in maximum risk territory with contract rollover, day-before-CPI Wednesday, and FOMC aftermath. Big institutions have closed their books - it's small traders now, which means expect wider swings and unpredictable price action. Tomorrow we roll Righty as well, so you'll need to adjust those levels too.
- Yesterday's Rare Price Action: Monday was unusual - we had an IB high and IB low, but price never grabbed either one. That's extremely rare in ES. Also note how character changed completely when RTH opened. Bulls controlled overnight with that beautiful trendline, but RTH brought a different animal. We broke the halfback and spent the entire day at previous day POC. This is why we don't carry forward overnight core strategy levels into RTH.
- Range Awareness is Everything: The critical range is 6929.75 to 6867. When you're at the bottom of the range, look for longs. When you're at the top, be cautious about longs (and consider shorts if flat). Yesterday we made it to the top, vomited to the bottom - this is what ranges do. If there's one thing to learn from me, it's understanding where you are in the range and trading accordingly.
- Today's Most Important Level: The RTH low from yesterday and the bottom of the range - these are essentially the same line. Above this, we should be looking for longs. Below this, it gets really interesting. We also finally hit the "watch out below" strong level, and I specifically noted in battle plan that I wanted a big bounce first before considering shorts. Well, we got that gorgeous bounce overnight.
- Battle Plan Strategy: No preferred trade today due to contract rollover and non-farm payroll conditions. My eyeballs are on battle plan levels 3 and 4 for potential downside moves, but we're letting price action guide us. The watch out below level has now satisfied its bounce requirement, making it a viable short consideration if we return. Check the unlocked battle plan review section every night to see how trades played out.
- Streamlined AM Briefings Going Forward: I'm refining this format to get under 7 minutes. Daily recaps will be in the battle plan review (unlocked for everyone) rather than repeated here. Every night you'll find: trade review, three trades of the day, how the battle plan worked, what we mapped on Zoom, and the core strategy trade of the day. On Mondays, battle plans unlock for everyone with my key focuses for the week.
- Devotional Reminder: "Test all things, hold on to what is good." In trading, this means reviewing your picture perfect entries, learning from what works, and letting go of what doesn't. Build your portfolio of proven setups. Mark up your charts. Document your process. The wisdom comes from testing and refining, not from stubbornly holding onto losing approaches.
- Get Tomorrow's Trades Tonight: Visit microtrader.com and click battle to access your battle plan.
Opening Remarks
Micros Trader opens the AM Briefing by outlining the trading environment for Tuesday, December 16. The current conditions are labeled “level 10 trading conditions,” primarily due to year-end institutional withdrawal. With major players having closed their books, the market is now dominated by small traders. This shift is expected to result in increased volatility and wider price swings.
Several macroeconomic events add complexity to the picture. A delayed non-farm payroll report is due, CPI data is scheduled for the following day, and the OPEC meeting is set for Friday. These events increase the potential for sharp moves in the market.
Micros Trader also explains that AM Briefings are now focused on forward-looking strategy. Reviews of the previous day's trades, including the “Battle Plan” and trade outcomes, are now housed in the daily Battle Plan document available at microstrader.com.
Range-Bound Strategy Overview
The core theme for today’s strategy is range-bound trading. The essential question guiding traders is: “Where are we at, and who is in control?”
Micros Trader highlights a well-defined trading range:
- Range Top: 6929.75
- Range Bottom: 6867
When price approaches the bottom of the range, it's generally better to be looking for long opportunities. Traders are advised to avoid going short in that zone. Conversely, when the price is near the top of the range, caution is urged before initiating longs.
This strategy is reinforced by recent market behavior. The previous session offered a textbook move — price pushed into the top of the range before sharply reversing and dropping to the bottom, described by Micros Trader as a “vomit to the bottom.”
Battle Plan and Key Technical Levels
Micros Trader identifies the RTH low as the most critical level for the day. This level aligns with the bottom of the defined trading range.
- Above the RTH Low: Maintain a long bias. Look for long entries in alignment with support.
- Below the RTH Low: Things get “really interesting.” A breakdown here shifts market control and introduces increased uncertainty.
Overnight action saw a major selloff into what the Battle Plan had marked as a “watch out below” level. According to the Plan, traders should only consider short trades from this level after a significant bounce — a condition that was met. The bounce occurred and was described as a “perfectly retested bounce,” satisfying the criteria to potentially initiate shorts.
However, despite the completed bounce, the focus shifts to deeper levels in the Battle Plan — specifically "battle plan three and four" — suggesting anticipation of further downside exploration.
Micros Trader emphasizes that, due to rollover and upcoming economic data, no preferred trade was issued today. The official stance is “long or flat.”
Procedural Guidance: Contract Rollover Adjustment
- Organize Levels: Group all key levels into a single folder on your chart.
- Mark Reference Point: Draw a line on a known level like the RTH low on the old contract.
- Enable Back Adjust: Turn this feature on to recalibrate the chart to the new contract.
- Calculate Displacement: Measure the point difference after adjustment (e.g., 57.5 points).
- Apply Displacement: Use the gear icon in the folder settings to apply the displacement value.
- Verify Accuracy: Scroll back (~600 points) to check historical alignment.
Essay Format Questions
- What did your last picture-perfect entry look like?
- What annotation helped clarify your entry most effectively?
Educational Focus: Trade Plan Builder – Picture Perfect Entries
Micros Trader underscores the importance of Section 11 of the Trade Plan Builder: creating a personalized catalog of “picture perfect entries.”
Traders are encouraged to:
- Screenshot trade setups that meet their criteria for excellence.
- Annotate charts with thoughtful notes and analysis.
- Save these annotated screenshots in a personal gallery for future reference.
Two annotation tools are recommended:
- Text Tool: Allows for simple notes.
- Call-Out Tool: Preferred, as it can be anchored and extended across a chart area, making it ideal for detailed commentary.
Market Character and Insights
Micros Trader notes a key distinction between overnight and RTH sessions. “A different bear wakes up when the RTH happens.” This is supported by yesterday’s price action: a strong overnight rally was completely reversed during the RTH.
Yesterday’s trading was also “rare” in that it didn’t test either the Initial Balance (IB) high or low — highly uncommon behavior.
As the transition to the “H” contract begins, traders are reminded that this is not merely a rollover; it’s akin to switching from trading Google to trading Nvidia. The instruments are structurally different. The new “H” contract comes with its own all-time highs and lows. Levels between 6583 and 7014 are considered highly relevant, while older levels may be less reliable due to thinner historical volume.
Micros Trader adds that the “Righty” contract — likely the Russell 2000 — will roll over the next day. This means traders will need to perform a similar level adjustment process for that instrument.
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