Wednesday Dec 17: HOW TO TRADE MES MICROS FUTURES
HOW TO TRADE MES MICROS FUTURES
Wednesday December 17, 2025
In Wednesday’s futures trading briefing, Micros Trader emphasized the importance of disciplined trade selection within a choppy and catalyst-light environment. The session, defined as a "sandwich day" between the Non-Farm Payroll and upcoming CPI data, suggests a range-bound market with limited directional bias. A highlighted case study, “Battle Plan Trade #1,” demonstrated the efficacy of trading from strong pre-defined levels with precise entry logic and measured risk control. Market sentiment remains balanced, as confirmed by a bull/bear scorecard, underscoring the need for strategic patience and adherence to mean-reversion tactics.📖 AM Briefing Overview & Key Points
Welcome to today's AM briefing with this week's scripture from 1 Thessalonians: "Test all things. Hold on to what is good." This directly relates to our trade plan work, especially as we focus on trades to avoid. Today's a sandwich day—stuck between yesterday's delayed non-farm payroll and tomorrow's CPI with no major news drivers. We'll cover battle plan trade setups, range rules, and why knowing where you're at in the market structure is absolutely critical.
- Trades to Avoid Section: We're building out the Trade Plan Builder with trades you'll never take again. Upload screenshots of those tempting C and D level trades that consistently don't work out, mark them up with the text and callout tools, and make detailed notes about the exact conditions. Remove them from your trading repertoire permanently—this is just as important as knowing what trades to take.
- Today's News Drivers: It's literally sandwich day. Yesterday was a delayed non-farm payroll, tomorrow is CPI, and we're stuck in the middle with nothing major. Just some minor FOMC speakers and Trump speaking this evening. If you're trading tonight, be aware of that potential volatility.
- Battle Plan Trade #1 Executed Perfectly: Last night's setup wrapped around our strong levels and ranges. The pathing called for bulls to pull back to the strong range, show fair value gapping with snappy ladder action, reclaim the strong range, and get back inside that red-to-green zone we discussed extensively yesterday. Multiple entry opportunities presented themselves—laddering off the bottom of the range, top of the range, and the ideal entry after reclaiming the strong level. No matter how you played it, Battle Plan Trade 1 would have paid 20 points if you were up at 4:21 AM Eastern.
- Range Rules Refresher: When you've got a range where price continuously bounces back and forth, don't look to go short down at the bottom—no sir. And don't go long up at the top. Look for shorts up high and longs down low, holding a runner just in case it breaks out your direction. Eventually it's gonna break and keep going, baby. That's the goal. We are really good at drawing lines where price is going to bounce, and that's what we trade.
- Current Market Structure: We're in a disgusting chop range on the daily chart, and it's critical you know where you're at. We took out the RTH high but couldn't get extension—tried for three hours and failed. When bears can't make a new high after a move up, expect a retracement of 15-30 points. We've got an overnight trend line hugging this area with session stacking, but the wider view shows we're still laddering down overall.
- Bull Bear Scorecard is Tied: Overnight trend line bouncing—bulls. Session stacking on the wider view—bears. VWAP barely above—bulls. Overnight halfback—bulls. Yesterday's range—bulls laddering down but controlling right now. Indices all in upper distribution but laddering down—bears. Bull bear line—bears. We're tied, which makes perfect sense given this chop range we're stuck in.
- Key Levels Playing Gorgeously: That bounce off the strong range, the VWAP, and last week's high was at a perfectly high timeframe location. If we come back into that area and you want to take a long, that makes an awful lot of sense. You can journal that—there's a legit reason why you could take that trade. Strong level at the London low is also setting up beautifully.
- Trading Both Ways Works: Don't get excited by up candles when bears are in control. However, the best trades yesterday were longs—they pay really well and quickly when bears control. Shoutout to Darren for his perfect TP on a long and Justin for his short. We can trade both ways and still do very well as a group, and I'm very thankful for that.
- Join Us Live: We trade every day live on Zoom, 15 minutes before the market opens. Come join us for collaborative trade planning and real-time market analysis in our pre-market Zoom room.
- Get Tomorrow's Trades Tonight: Visit microstrader.com and click battle to access your battle plan.
Opening Remarks
In today’s AM Briefing, Micros Trader outlines a strategy focused on eliminating subpar trades, navigating a low-catalyst environment, and executing with precision inside a choppy market range. The overarching theme is disciplined range trading with a keen eye on avoiding emotional or impulsive decisions.
Core Trading Philosophy: Identifying and Eliminating Subpar Trades
One of the central components of the trading strategy discussed is the importance of trade selection. As Micros Trader notes, we must “test all things. Hold on to what is good,” meaning not every setup deserves our attention—even those that seem tempting.
The strategy specifically calls out “C and D level trades”—those that consistently disappoint. These setups may look appealing but have a poor statistical outcome. The directive is simple: remove them from your trading playbook entirely.
To reinforce this discipline, Micros Trader recommends a three-step journaling process:
- Capture: Screenshot the trades that you will never take again.
- Annotate: Use text or callout tools to explain the reasoning for disqualification.
- Document: Note the exact conditions of the trade setup so you can spot and avoid them in the future.
This becomes a visual gallery of what not to do, training the subconscious to avoid old mistakes.
Current Macroeconomic and News Context
Today’s market session is what Micros Trader refers to as a “sandwich day”—a quieter session bookended by two high-impact events. Yesterday featured the delayed Non-Farm Payroll (NFP) report, and tomorrow brings the Consumer Price Index (CPI) release.
With no major catalysts on the calendar, aside from minor FOMC speakers and a scheduled Trump speech later in the evening, traders are advised to expect potentially directionless or range-bound price action. These types of sessions require patience and adherence to range trading principles rather than directional conviction.
Tactical Case Study: “Battle Plan Trade #1”
Micros Trader walks through a pre-mapped trade known as “Battle Plan Trade #1,” a clean execution of range-based logic and pre-defined levels. This plan was created the night before and was one of several scenarios outlined for possible engagement.
Key technical concepts included:
- Strong Levels: Marked in blue and updated weekly, these represent major S/R zones.
- High-Timeframe Range: Identified with red-to-green shading, this is where price has recently been oscillating.
The hypothesis: If bulls were in control, they shouldn’t allow price to fall too far below the strong range. Ideal action would involve a reclaim of the range via “fair value gapping” and “ladder back” behavior.
Micros Trader outlined three potential long entries:
- After a dip below and reclaim of the strong range.
- A bounce off the bottom of the strong range.
- A bounce off the top of the strong range.
The preferred entry occurred after the reclaim of both the strong level and the high-timeframe range. The target was the RTH high, about 15 points away. The suggested risk-reward structure was to take profits around 10 points, and leave a runner in case the move extended further.
This setup validated well in real-time, with entry possible as early as 4:21 AM ET. Multiple laddering opportunities confirmed the trade thesis.
Guiding Principles for Range-Bound Markets
With price action stuck in what was described as a “disgusting chop range,” the playbook focuses on mean reversion rather than breakout chasing.
Micros Trader emphasizes:
- Core Rule: Price will stay in a range until it doesn’t—trade the oscillations, not the breakout.
- High-Probability Entries: Short near the range highs and long near the range lows.
- Avoidance Behavior: Do not short low or long high within the range. That behavior typically leads to failed trades.
Importantly, if you do want to play for a breakout, you should still trade from the edge and leave a runner—don’t try to “predict” the breakout. Instead, hold a piece and let the market confirm.
Real-Time Market Assessment
Micros Trader shares insights into the live session, identifying both micro and macro elements of the market.
Price had broken above the RTH high but failed to follow through for over three hours. Such failed extensions often result in retracements of 15–30 points. Price was currently bouncing off an overnight trend line, but Micros Trader advised waiting for a deeper pullback, possibly under the strong range and aligned with the London low, for a better long entry.
Larger trend analysis reveals a bearish bias: the market is stacking down across sessions, even as it prints strong countertrend long setups. This paradox—where fast-paying longs occur during bearish control—is flagged as both a risk and opportunity. Traders are warned not to get too excited by green candles.
Bull/Bear Scorecard
- Overnight Trend Line – Bullish
- Session Stacking – Bearish
- VWAP – Bullish
- Overnight Halfback – Bullish
- Yesterday’s Range Control – Bullish
- Indices – Bearish
- Bull/Bear Line – Bearish
Conclusion: Bullish and bearish factors are in balance. The market remains indecisive.
The Overarching Market Structure
Zooming out to the daily chart, Micros Trader notes that the ES futures are trapped in an unappealing chop zone. In this kind of environment, location matters above all. Traders must know where they are within the range to avoid buying highs or shorting lows.
A recent bounce near the top of a strong range, VWAP, and prior week’s high was cited as a textbook example of high-confluence, high-quality trade location. It was a “journal-worthy” setup that reflected the value of preplanning.
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