Friday Jan 2: Opening Bell Prep for Micros & Emini Futures Traders
Price Action Trading System
Friday January 2, 2026
Micros Trader kicked off the new year’s AM Briefing by discussing January seasonality trends, key technical levels, and trade setups in ES and MES futures. With a focus on countertrend long opportunities overnight, the briefing reviewed missed entries, runner management, and upcoming non-farm payroll impact. Despite a short-term bounce, the broader trend remains under bear control unless the bulls can reclaim a critical trend line and the 6935–6936 price level. Traders were encouraged to stay tactical, with journaling prompts and a structured approach to battle plan execution.📖 AM Briefing Overview & Key Points - January 2nd, 2026
Welcome to the first AM briefing of 2026! Today we're kicking off with Psalm 62:8 and a fresh look at the ES chart after the holiday. We had two battle plan trades activate overnight, the bears still have control, and we're watching critical levels to see if the bulls can mount a comeback. Nothing major on the calendar today, but level 10 trading days are coming next Thursday and Friday with non-farm payroll.
- Mark Your 2026 Opening Levels: Get those critical price points marked on your chart right now - the 12/25 closing price, last night's opening price, and today's RTH opening price. Put them in a special folder, rename them clearly, and include the exact price so you don't lose track. These reference points will serve you all year long.
- Battle Plan Trades Activated Overnight: Two of the five battle plan ideas from yesterday hit. Battle plan trade #2 was the reclaim/retest of the strong level for a small long. We got that beautiful fair value gapping candle over the strong level, pulled back for the entry around 07 (missed by a tick or two), then ran 30 points into the strong range. If you were more aggressive or caught it off the strong level itself, you traversed two strong levels - that's a really good move, especially when the bears are still in control.
- Sunday Short Stop Management: If you took the battle plan short from Sunday and kept following your stop down, you had three solid options on Wednesday before the holiday: exit at the close, exit at the gap fill (which was beautiful timing), or keep trailing your stop behind each new high. This could still just be a lower high, so don't assume we're reversing just because we bounced.
- Current Market Structure - Bears Still in Control: Zoom out to the 30-minute chart and you'll see we're laddering down with a clear trend line in place. We haven't gotten a hard close over that trend line yet. This bounce could be nothing more than a lower high before we slam back down. The bulls need to get over the trend line AND the strong range to even begin making their case. Until then, bears are driving this bus.
- Counter Trend Longs - Perfect Setup, Now Be Careful: Yes, the overnight longs were counter trend, but they made perfect sense at a good distance from the trend line. Now that we're close to the trend line? Not interested in new longs here at all. I want to see a new low to get interested, or I want to see us reclaim the strong range, ladder back with vengeance, break the trend line, and get over the strong level. We'll look for that together 15 minutes before the open.
- Runner Management for Overnight Longs: If you're holding a runner from the overnight battle plan trades, you could try to hold it just in case this thing keeps climbing. But I'd be tight on it - move your stop behind the strong range. You've already captured your profit, so this is lotto territory. We made it to the trend line, which was the goal for a counter trend long.
- NQ More Aggressive, Same Caution Applies: NQ took out the previous day high and looks like it's trying to bounce off Friday's RTH high. But zoom out - is this just a lower high? Same deal as ES: we're in a bears control environment. NQ needs to break its trend line and get over the 69.35-69.36 strong range or we're likely coming back down.
- Week Ahead - Level 10 Days Coming: Nothing on the calendar today, but look at next week: non-farm payroll is coming at the end of the week. Thursday (day before NFP) and Friday (NFP day) are level 10 trading days. Also note the January seasonality chart - it's yuck, yuck, yuck. Be prepared for potential follow-through moves. A 10, 20, or 30 pointer isn't a horrible take profit in that environment.
- Prayer & Fasting Series Begins: Starting this month, we're doing a series on prayer and fasting. Today's scripture asks: when was the last time you earnestly poured your heart before Him? Trust in Him at all times. God is a refuge for us. If you've felt any need to fast, these messages might be for you. Also, this week's journaling prompt at Trader Meditations: where did you abandon your plan and what triggered it?
- Get Tomorrow's Trades Tonight: Visit microstrader.com and click battle to access your battle plan.
Opening Remarks
Good morning, everybody. Good morning. Welcome to the AM Briefing for January 2nd, 2026. My goodness, the older you get, the faster it goes. We're an ES/MES futures trading room. Check us out at microstrader.com.
"Trust in Him at all times, you people. Pour out your heart before Him. God is a refuge for us."
What a great scripture to start the year with. When was the last time you earnestly poured your heart before Him?
Starting this month, we're going to do a series on prayer and fasting. I thought this would start us off really well because we want to pour out our hearts. So coming up is going to be a series of scriptures where we explore prayer and fasting. If anywhere in your heart you've felt the need to fast, these messages might be for you.
Upcoming Economic Events
Nothing on the calendar today, so let's take a peek at next week. Non-farm payroll lands toward the end of next week. We will be live again on Tuesday.
Thursday and Friday next week, I would consider Level 10 trading days: the day before non-farm payroll, and the day of non-farm payroll. So those are on the horizon.
Essay Format Questions
- Where did you abandon your plan?
- What triggered it?
January Seasonality & Historical Trends
I wanted to just look at the seasonality and take a look at January. That doesn't look too fun, does it? It looks like it's just “yuck, yuck, yuck.” So be prepared for that.
Expect a little follow-through. You get a 10, 20, or 30-pointer on your hands — not a horrible take profit in that environment. Of course, this is based on historical data and has nothing to do with what is actually going to happen.
Chart Review & Key Levels
Let’s get to the chart. I’m going to try to follow my list a little bit better here.
The 4025.6 prices — Friday’s RTH closing price, the overnight opening price, and today’s RTH opening price — are key. Mark your levels, put them in a special folder. If you want to rename it, just click on “horizontal ray” and rename it. I also like to input the exact price so if my levels move, I don't have to go back and figure it out.
Notice the note I included here as well. Make sure you get those markings — you’ll be reminded to put them in a special folder.
Battle Plan Review
Yesterday around noon, I mapped out five battle plan trade ideas: where do I want to go long and where do I want to go short?
Well, number one — there were no shorts mapped out. After this big move down and the gap fill, to me it was not time to look for a short. But if you were already short from the Sunday battle plan, you were simply adjusting your stop, which we'll talk about in a moment.
So which battle plan trade activated last night? Actually two of them — but we're just going to look at one. This was battle plan trade #2.
The reclaim/retest of the strong level could be a small long. Once again, this is not trading advice. This is just one trader’s opinion of where I'm looking to go long or short. Perhaps an add-on if long from below. Maybe we gap down and hit a different battle plan trade, ladder back up, reclaim the strong level. That would be a great place to add on.
I wanted to see a strong fair value gapping candle over this level. Would you say this was a strong fair value gapping move above the strong level? Absolutely.
When it pulled back in, I had a long order at 07. It missed me by a tick or two and went on with the move — right into the strong range where it hung out most of the night. Note, that’s where I had the arrow ending.
Then battle plan trade #1 would’ve picked up from there, and you could’ve used that as an entry as well. There were also a couple of core strategy entries to get long. I would denote the bottom of the range here and here — those would’ve been fine entries, if you were up. Me? I was staring at the back of my eyelids.
Missed Entry Reflection
So no entries for me. I don’t think I should have been more aggressive in my 07 entry, but it missed me. And here I am — you could have made a 30-pointer at the top.
When the bears are in control, these longs typically offer about 20–30 points. Also, if you went long off the strong level, we've now traversed two strong levels. That's a solid move.
If you were more aggressive or picked a better entry, I’d have my stop behind the strong range. Allow it to dip under a little, but let it keep going if it wants to.
Sunday Trade Management Example
Next thing I want to talk about is the Sunday stop. I did a video on this over the weekend, so I won't go into too much detail.
There was a battle plan short you could have kept moving your stop down on. On Wednesday, knowing that we’d be closed Thursday, you had two options:
- Exit at the close — which would’ve been beautiful since that’s where the gap fill was.
- Exit at the gap fill.
- Just keep following your stop down behind each high.
Who knows how far it could go? This could still be a lower high. Right now, that’s what we know.
Trend Line & Bull/Bear Structure
Let’s jump to a 30-minute chart. We're clearly laddering down. We haven’t gotten a hard close over this trend line until just here. So if you adjust from this tip to that tip — there you go.
When do things change? Things change once the bulls can get over this trend line and over this strong range. That’s battle number one. The bulls need to get over this level and ladder. Each reclaim puts more in the bulls’ favor.
At this point, as I said, this could just be a lower high and we could slam back in.
Runner Management & Current Setup
The longs that happened — battle plan 1 and 2 — were right here. If you're holding a runner, try to hold it just in case this was just a dip into the strong range and we ladder back above and go. Or maybe it drops back down — but who cares? You already captured your profit.
You’re in a lotto runner. Because we made it to the trend line, I would keep a tight stop on my runner. Move it behind the strong range. Or you can keep it at your entry. You do you.
At this point, yes — longs were countertrend, but it was a great place to look for a long back to the trend line.
How interested am I in initiating a new long close to the trend line? Not at all.
Was I interested in a long at a distance from it? Yeah — that made a lot more sense.
But here? Nothing I’m really interested in. Honestly, I want to see a new low or see price take the strong range, ladder with force, break the trend line, get over the strong level — then I’ll look to get long. And we’ll do that together 15 minutes before market open.
Broader Market Context
Let’s check in on the others. NQ was more aggressive. It took out the previous day’s high and looks like it’s trying to bounce off the top of Friday’s RTH high.
Is any of this really bearish? You have to zoom out a bit.
Is this just a lower high? Possibly. Keep in mind — we are not in a bull control environment. This is a bears control environment. Keep that in mind.
Have this trend line on your chart. Know where we are. The bulls must break that trend line and get over the strong range at 6936–6935. That’s the key. Otherwise, we likely continue back down — because that’s what the trend is telling us.
That’s how one trader sees it. Hope you have a great day trading.
I'll see my traders live 15 minutes before market open. Get tomorrow’s trades tonight at microstrader.com and click “battle.”
COMMON QUESTIONS FOR ES FUTURES TRADERS
Q: What does Micros Trader mean by "Level 10" trading days?
A: Level 10 trading days are high-impact market sessions where volatility and opportunity are elevated. Micros Trader uses this term to describe days like the one before and the day of Non-Farm Payroll (NFP), which often bring significant price movement and increased volume.
Q: What is the significance of the 6935–6936 strong range mentioned in the briefing?
A: The 6935–6936 level is identified as a critical "strong range" that bulls need to reclaim and build above in order to shift market sentiment. Without breaking this range and the adjacent trend line, the bias remains with the bears.
Q: How does Micros Trader approach missed entries or trades that nearly triggered?
A: Micros Trader reflects on missed entries as part of journaling and process improvement. In this session, he missed a long entry by one tick and emphasized not chasing — reinforcing the discipline of sticking to planned setups rather than reacting emotionally.
Q: What kind of journaling prompt was shared in this AM Briefing?
A: The journaling question for the week was: “Where did you abandon your plan, and what triggered it?” This reflection encourages traders to build self-awareness around their decision-making and improve discipline.
Q: Why does Micros Trader emphasize identifying and labeling chart levels with precision?
A: Marking levels with precision — including naming and price tagging — ensures consistency in trade planning and review. It also reduces the likelihood of confusion or errors when re-evaluating charts mid-session or across multiple sessions.
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