ES EMINI DAILY TRADE PLAN
Opening Remarks and Market Overview
This AM Briefing outlines the current market environment, which can best be described as a two-day sprint that has carried ES to the doorstep of new all-time highs. Bulls remain firmly in control, but the market is now entering a dangerous zone due to proximity to major economic catalysts, including Non-Farm Payroll and CPI.
The market structure is bullish, defined by higher highs and higher lows, but price is now operating in an upper distribution phase. This is not an environment rich with easy trade entries. Instead, it is one where patience, discipline, and restraint matter more than activity.
Recent Price Action and Technical Context
The market has completed approximately a 240-point move in just two days. That type of momentum shifts the market into an upper distribution zone. While this confirms bullish control, it also degrades trade quality for new long entries.
ATR has been extremely compressed in certain zones, reaching readings near 2.0 or lower. Trading in these low-ATR environments is discouraged unless the trade location is exceptional.
Overnight, price failed to take out Regular Trading Hours levels, leaving a magnet below the current price.
Economic Calendar and Event Risk
- Retail Sales and Core Retail Sales
- Employment Cost Index
- Non-Farm Payroll
- Consumer Price Index
Battle Plan Framework
Battle Plan 1: Micro pullbacks in upper distribution are aggressive and low-quality.
Battle Plan 2: Zone dips can work but require tolerance for chop.
Battle Plan 3: Deep retracements into support offer the best structure and risk definition.
Trader Journaling Prompts
- Did you respect the current bullish structure today?
- Did impatience or fear influence your execution?
- What did you do better than yesterday?
SUMMARY:
- ✅ Bulls remain in control of ES
- ✅ Upper distribution reduces entry quality
- ✅ Liquidation breaks require patience
- ✅ Shorts are counter-trend and risky
- ✅ Discipline and journaling remain essential
COMMON QUESTIONS FOR ES FUTURES TRADERS
Why is the current ES market considered dangerous despite being bullish?
A: ES is bullish, but price is trading in an upper distribution zone near all-time highs. This combination often leads to liquidation breaks and low-quality entries, especially ahead of major economic releases.
What is a liquidation break and how should traders respond?
A: A liquidation break is a fast, aggressive selloff driven by forced exits. Traders should avoid knife catching and wait for a second confirmed ladder before entering long positions.
Which battle plan is preferred in the current market?
A: Battle Plan 3, the deep retracement into strong support, is preferred because it provides better structure, clearer risk, and higher confidence entries.
Why are micro pullbacks considered low-quality trades right now?
A: After a 240-point rally, shallow pullbacks offer poor reward-to-risk. Low ATR conditions also increase chop and emotional fatigue.
How should traders manage risk around economic data releases?
A: Traders should know exact release times and often stay out of the market during reports like Retail Sales, NFP, and CPI to avoid slippage and erratic price action.
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