ES EMINI TRADE PLAN
Opening Remarks
This AM Briefing focuses on recent market price action, particularly the shift from repeated failed attempts at new all-time highs to a significant liquidation break. The goal is not to predict the exact timing of these breaks—which is nearly impossible—but to manage them effectively using reversal boxes and structured Battle Plans.
We are currently operating in a high-risk location near all-time highs, with price showing signs of exhaustion after multiple failed pushes higher. This is not an environment for aggressive guessing. It is an environment for discipline and structured execution.
Market Context and Economic Calendar
The broader market environment is influenced by a dense calendar of upcoming economic events.
Monday is a holiday, and the market will be closed. The following week brings several major catalysts, including FOMC minutes, PCE data, and GDP. Additionally, OPEC Friday is scheduled next Friday.
When markets sit near all-time highs with heavy economic data ahead, volatility can expand quickly. Traders must be aware that positioning becomes more fragile in these environments.
Technical Analysis: The Liquidation Break
A central theme in this analysis is the liquidation break that followed multiple failed attempts by bulls to secure a new all-time high.
After repeated pushes higher, price failed to consolidate above incremental highs. Instead, it reversed and traveled back toward the bottom of its multi-day range. This is a classic reversal box behavior.
The Reversal Box Pattern
The reversal box forms when price expands aggressively, fails to hold those gains, and then rotates back through the range.
The mechanism is straightforward. Price pushes to incremental highs but cannot sustain them. The S&P 500 (ES) may print new highs that look strong at first, but if buyers cannot defend them, price slides back into the established range.
Key Levels and Indicators
- 108-Day Range: Price recently rotated from the Value Area High (VAH) down to the Value Area Low (VAL), completing a full range traversal.
- Bull-Bear Line: Trading below this line signals a more cautious environment for bulls.
- 2026 Opening Price: Price is currently trading below this benchmark, reducing the quality of long setups.
- Strong Range Flip: A prior resistance zone has transitioned into support, but failure to hold it could accelerate downside pressure.
Trading Methodology: The Battle Plan
The Battle Plan provides structure in volatile environments. It outlines four primary engagement scenarios using a laddered entry system.
Battle Plan 1
This plan required price to hold above a strong level and begin laddering higher. That scenario failed to trigger in recent sessions because price could not maintain strength above that zone.
When the market does not confirm strength, the correct action is to do nothing.
Battle Plan 2
This scenario required a dip into a specific area followed by a reclaim of a strong level.
Reclaiming key levels provides confirmation and typically offers a safer entry. However, if price does not reclaim with conviction, traders must step aside.
Battle Plan 3
Battle Plan 3 targeted a deeper range reclaim.
While the primary upside target was not fully achieved, an apex trade at the bottom of that range delivered an 18-point move. That was a short-term opportunity within a larger unstable structure.
This reinforces that partial executions inside the system can still produce quality trades without forcing extended exposure.
Battle Plan 4
Battle Plan 4 represents the deepest engagement zone in the structure.
Price eventually reached this area late in the session, providing a successful long entry at the end of the day. This entry came only after price had rotated into predefined support—not while it was falling.
CPI Data Release Analysis
The CPI release on the Friday before Valentine’s Day came in right in line with expectations.
There were no significant surprises in the data.
The immediate reaction was a 26-point candle. The total move surrounding the announcement was approximately 45 points.
This was characterized as a small move relative to historical CPI volatility. It did not justify aggressive positioning.
Following the announcement, the market pushed higher but lacked sustained follow-through. The current posture remains flat, acknowledging that while a bounce occurred, it did not shift the broader structural concerns.
Market Sentiment and Final Thoughts
It gets a strong liquidation break and comes in. We are in a dangerous location to be looking for longs right here.
Predicting when the liquidation break will happen is fruitless. Do not counter this. Wait until price reaches a Battle Plan area.
Above all, discipline outweighs prediction. Structure outweighs emotion. Follow the rules.
COMMON QUESTIONS FOR ES FUTURES TRADERS
Q: What is a liquidation break in ES futures?
A: A liquidation break occurs when price fails to sustain higher levels after repeated attempts at new highs, triggering aggressive selling that pushes the market back through its recent range.
Q: Why is trading below the bull-bear line considered risky for longs?
A: Trading below the bull-bear line signals weaker structure. Long positions in this zone are considered counter-trend and are more likely to experience volatility, including double- or triple-taps before resolving.
Q: What is the purpose of the Battle Plan strategy?
A: The Battle Plan provides predefined engagement zones and structured entry scenarios so traders avoid emotional decisions and only act when price reaches high-probability areas.
Q: How did CPI impact the recent ES price action?
A: CPI came in line with expectations, resulting in a moderate 26-point initial reaction and approximately a 45-point total move, without creating a major structural shift.
Q: What is meant by “no train jumping” in futures trading?
A: “No train jumping” means avoiding entries in the middle of a move without a predefined setup. Traders must wait for price to reach structured levels within their system before engaging.
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