MES MICROS FUTURES TRADE PLAN
Battle Plan and Market Context
We are currently positioned at a very important area in the SPX futures market. After a long holiday weekend, price is sitting at the 100-day value area low (VAL). Just last week, we were trading near the value area top, and now we have rotated all the way down to the bottom of that range.
This is significant.
Historically, when price reaches these value area lows, we often see sharp “vengeance” rallies. That makes initiating new short positions difficult, even though the broader sentiment remains bearish. It is a location where sellers have been in control, but also where aggressive bounces have previously occurred.
The VWAP is currently slanting downward, confirming that bears maintain overall control. However, being at a historical support zone means this is not an ideal location to press fresh shorts without confirmation.
Friday’s high, low, and half-back levels are critical reference points. The overnight session from the Monday holiday is statistically insignificant and can largely be ignored. Focus should remain on meaningful volume and established range levels.
Value Area and Historical Behavior
The daily chart shows a transition from value area top to value area low within a short period of time. This shift reflects increasing volatility and directional pressure.
Seasonally, the second half of February has historically experienced a notable drop-off. The market, based on historical tendencies, appears to be on the verge of a sharp move lower. However, seasonality alone is not a trade signal—it is context.
The Fear and Greed Index is currently at the beginning of the “fear” range. Independent investor sentiment surveys appear relatively normal, though slightly more bearish than historical averages.
This is not panic. It is early-stage caution.
Strategic Execution: Battle Plan 2
The focus for this session is Battle Plan 2.
Battle Plan 2 emphasizes participation near strong levels within established ranges. It is not about chasing momentum. It is about identifying “ladder” levels—specific price areas inside a strong range that act as leverage points for entry.
Counter-trend longs are possible here because of the value area low location, but they should be small, if taken at all. If strong levels are reclaimed and held, that provides confirmation and an opportunity to add.
This is a cautious environment.
Trade Management and Risk Structure
One suggested structure is the three-contract system:
• Lock in two contracts at 10 points each.
• Leave the third contract at breakeven.
• Allow the runner to participate in potential extended upside.
Stops should be placed exactly where the trade thesis is invalidated. That is typically below the recent low or beneath the bottom of a strong range.
Ladder entries allow traders to scale into positions at predefined levels rather than committing fully at one price. This provides flexibility and structure in volatile conditions.
Macroeconomic Calendar
The calendar is relatively light early in the week. That does not mean low volatility—it means caution.
Notable events include:
• Walmart earnings later in the week.
• OPEC meeting on Friday, making Thursday and Friday questionable trading days.
• A pending Supreme Court ruling on tariffs.
• Potentially significant economic data later in the week.
When high-impact events cluster later in the week, earlier sessions can feel technical and range-driven. Still, positioning ahead of news can create sharp, unexpected moves.
Trader Meditations: The Best View
Trading requires the best view.
The best view does not start at the open. It starts before the open.
Non-trade habits directly influence trading performance.
Information Diet
Consuming negative news or social media before the open can distort perspective. Relying on other people’s opinions creates noise and distraction. Your edge is built on your levels and your system—not someone else’s bias.
Physical Wellness
Poor sleep, poor nutrition, low energy, or excessive caffeine can all impair decision-making. Movement—walking, stretching, light exercise—helps prepare the body and mind for performance.
Spiritual Routine
Maintaining a morning spiritual routine, including scripture reading such as Psalm 145, creates consistency and grounding. Stability outside the charts creates stability inside the trade.
Focus and Emotional Neutrality
Texting, scrolling, or engaging in unrelated activity while in a live trade fractures focus. So do arguments or emotional stress before the session.
You cannot trade your A-game without protecting your mental environment.
Core Trading Maxims
Know your levels.
Respect the volatility.
Watch the wicks.
Define invalidation clearly.
A trade should only be held as long as the technical reasoning remains valid. When the thesis is broken, the trade is over.
This is a high-volatility environment sitting at a major technical level. Participation must be intentional, disciplined, and structured.
Strap in.
COMMON QUESTIONS FOR SPX FUTURES TRADERS
What is the main technical area SPX futures are battling right now?
A: The market is positioned at the 100-day value area low (VAL), which is a historically significant support zone where sharp bounce rallies have occurred before.
Why are new short trades considered higher-risk at this location?
A: Even with a bearish bias under a downward-slanting VWAP, value area lows have historically produced aggressive “vengeance” rallies, making late shorts vulnerable without confirmation.
What levels matter most for today’s plan?
A: Friday’s high, Friday’s low, and the half-back level are the primary references. The holiday overnight session is treated as statistically insignificant compared to meaningful RTH volume.
What is “Battle Plan 2” and how should it be executed?
A: Battle Plan 2 focuses on engaging near strong range levels using “ladder” entries—predefined prices inside the range that act as lever points—rather than chasing momentum.
How should risk be managed in this volatility?
A: Stops should be placed exactly at the invalidation point—typically below the recent low or beneath the bottom of a strong range. A three-contract approach can help: take two partials at 10 points each and leave a third at breakeven to participate in extended moves.
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