MES TRADING SYSTEM
"Know that the Lord he is God. He is who made us. We are his. We are his people and the sheep of his pasture... His steadfast love endures forever and his faithfulness for all generations."
Market Context and Economic Indicators
The market enters the Friday session following a volatile overnight move, marked by a 118-point surge. This price action moved us back into the upper distribution from the previous day. While the "Battle Plan" long entries triggered near the 72 level were successful, the significant overnight extension makes new entries increasingly risky due to the high probability of chasing longs.
The primary technical focus is the critical range between 6883 and 7041 — a zone that served as the main trading area for the past two weeks before being lost. Currently, price action still suggests a "laddering down" structure, even after the overnight bounce.
Friday’s AM Briefing is situated in a tight space between recent technical breakdowns and an upcoming high-impact macro calendar. Sentiment and expectations data are due out 30 minutes after the open, though initial concerns about Non-Farm Payrolls being released today seem to have passed. It’s now clear that the major macro drivers — Core Retail Sales, CPI, and updated Payroll Change data — are coming next week, described as a "monster wild week."
Glossary of Key Terms
- RTH High: The high of the Regular Trading Hours session, often used as a reference for stop placement.
- VWAP: Volume Weighted Average Price — a key level for trend indication and trade planning.
- Value Area Low (VAL): The lower boundary of the 70% value range over a defined period (here: 100-day).
Strategic Trade Review: “Battle Plans”
Micros Trader notes that two overnight Battle Plan trades were triggered during the London session.
Entry Challenges: These entries weren't "handed on a satin pillow." The 72 level saw a triple tap and demanded stop-losses wider than 3.5 points to stay in the trade through volatility before the eventual 118-point move.
Position Management: Traders entering with multiple contracts were advised to take profits after the first 10-point push into the strong range and then hold a runner for potential range reclamation.
Current Strategy: After such an aggressive move, the posture is now "flat." Micros Trader discourages chasing at these levels and is waiting for a more structured setup or significant retrace.
Trend Indicators and Market Structure
- VWAPs: Upward planning VWAPs confirm bullish aggression in the short term.
- Overall Structure: The broader trend still points to a "laddering down" dynamic. Until the 6883–7041 range is reclaimed with structure, the market remains in a parabolic southbound trend.
SUMMARY:
- ✅ Market surged 118 points overnight but remains structurally in a "laddering down" trend
- ✅ The 6883–7041 range is the key zone to reclaim for bullish continuation
- ✅ Battle Plan long entries triggered near 72 after a triple tap and wide stop-loss requirements
- ✅ Traders are advised to remain flat post-move and avoid chasing longs
- ✅ High-impact data including CPI and Retail Sales will drive next week’s volatility
COMMON QUESTIONS FOR ES FUTURES TRADERS
What is the “Battle Plan” mentioned in the AM Briefing?
A: The Battle Plan is a pre-market trade map created by Micros Trader that outlines key levels and ideal entry zones. These plans help traders anticipate potential reactions during the live session, including scalp entries and swing setups.
Why is the 6883–7041 range so important?
A: This range served as a primary two-week consolidation zone. Reclaiming it signals strength and opens the door for a move toward all-time highs, while rejection at its boundaries may result in further downside toward targets like 6712.
What does “laddering down” mean in market structure?
A: "Laddering down" refers to a bearish structure where each bounce fails to reach the previous high, forming lower highs and lower lows. It's a sign that sellers remain in control despite occasional bullish rallies.
Why does Micros Trader discourage chasing trades after big moves?
A: Chasing trades after large impulsive moves often leads to poor entries, increased risk, and diminished reward potential. Micros Trader emphasizes disciplined entries based on structure and pre-defined trade plans.
How should traders prepare for high-impact data weeks like the one ahead?
A: Traders are advised to scale back size, wait for clean setups, and be extra cautious during news releases. Micros Trader recommends closing the DOM until post-data volatility settles and using tight risk management protocols.
Comments
Post a Comment