AM Briefing #795: Knowing When To Stand Down Beats Forcing A Trade
AM BRIEFING
ES CHART | KEY LEVELS | SETUPS
ES Technical Analysis — AM Briefing 795 Timeline
Monday June 22, 2026
| TIME | CHAPTER |
|---|---|
| 0:00 | Welcome ES MES Futures Traders |
| 0:32 | Scripture & The Week Ahead This week's scripture on the Spirit interceding in prayer. The calendar is light — Core PCE is the only print and rarely moves much. |
| 1:00 | Live Stream Tuesday & Expected Range Join the live YouTube stream every Tuesday like a full member. This week's expected range is 110 points, already plotted on your Strong Levels. |
| 1:28 | Tip Of The Week: When To Stand Down Last week was a signature week to step aside — rollover plus FOMC plus a Friday holiday plus Thursday OPEX. There are times to be protective; take them seriously. |
| 2:09 | Trade Of The Week Review A Core Strategy short banked 50 and 40 points to target. Played as perfect chess, holding a lotto runner could have run 150 points into Friday. |
| 3:24 | Why Last Week Was Untradeable FOMC Wednesday, OPEX Thursday, closed Friday — Monday and Tuesday were the only days that counted toward the scorecard. |
| 3:52 | The Core Strategy In One Breath Fewer, higher-quality, risk-first, laser-tight entries off the Battle Plan using the 3-Contract System, holding a runner to capture big moves. |
| 4:44 | Sunday Levels & The Overnight Drop Zone Strong Levels and the Strong Range get published each Sunday. Price dropped into the zone at the Asia open and shot up — but no comeback for a perfect long. |
| 5:19 | Treat The Asia Open Like RTH Don't trade the first six minutes of the Asia open. Two long attempts at the Friday gap fill were missed; re-engage only on a snappy return to lower Battle Plan 1. |
| 6:14 | New Chart Widget & The 30-Min Map A new widget shows symbol and timeframe live on stream. The trend line off Monday and Tuesday was touched, confirmed, broken, back-tested, and is moving forth. |
| 7:40 | The Key Level: 7520 7520 is where Battle Plan 1 originated and the most important level for the week. Not excited to short here — watch for a long re-engagement if price revisits. |
| 8:39 | Four-Up Indices: Bullish Tape S&P near all-time highs, NQ at Thursday's high, upward VWAP across the board with price above it. No Bull Bear scorecard needed. |
| 9:08 | The Preflight Checklist Are you emotionally and physically ready, in the right environment, with a written trade plan and the calendar checked? Earn the right to trade. |
| 10:39 | Monday After A Holiday — Moderate Expectations It's Monday after a long holiday, rarely a great day. Moderate expectations and join the team live 15 minutes before the open. |
MES MICROS TRADE PLAN
Knowing When To Stand Down Beats Forcing A Trade
Posted: Monday June 22, 2026
This ES futures morning briefing opens the week after a stretch nobody should have forced. Last week stacked contract rollover, FOMC, a Friday holiday and Thursday OPEX into one squirrelly mess… and the real lesson was knowing when to Stand Down. Today the focus shifts to two skills that build traders: mentally trading your positions all the way to completion even after you're flat, and respecting a Monday-after-a-holiday for the low-probability session it usually is. We map the levels that matter, run the preflight, and keep expectations moderate. Together We Trade Better.
WHY LAST WEEK WAS A WEEK TO STAND DOWN
It's rare we discuss taking a week off. Last week earned it. It was a signature setup to step aside… and you could see it coming.
- Contract rollover: The quarterly transition between futures contract months muddies price behavior and liquidity.
- FOMC Wednesday: A scheduled volatility event that can whip price both ways before settling.
- OPEX Thursday: Options Expiration pins and distorts price as positions unwind.
- Friday holiday: Markets closed… and the day before behaves like a thin overnight session.
It had ALL the ingredients. Monday and Tuesday were the only two days that counted toward the scorecard for Core Strategy, Zoom, and the Battle Plan. The rest? No trade days by every measure.
Trader Lesson 1
When the calendar stacks rollover, FOMC, OPEX and a holiday into one week, that's not a challenge to conquer… it's a signal to Stand Down. Take the protective times seriously.
THE TRADE OF THE WEEK: MENTALLY TRADING TO COMPLETION
Even in a tough week, there was a clean one. A Core Strategy short — our advanced scalping system — that got called off with target and take profits in the right place. A beautiful day. Trade small, and it can still be very, very beautiful.
- The result: 50 points on the short, 40 points to that initial target. Clean and done.
- The "what if": Play a little more perfect chess… move your stop progressively as the session closes, and Wednesday's FOMC drop opens up real runner potential.
- The potential: A 150-point move by doing nothing but holding a lotto runner. Still short going into Friday.
I'm not saying you should have held it. I'm saying I always mentally trade my trades to completion even after I'm out — because I want to SEE what the potential was. That's how you train the eye to hold winners next time.
Trader Lesson 2
After you're flat, keep mentally trading the position to completion. Seeing the full move you left on the table is how you learn to manage a runner the next time it sets up.
This is the Core Strategy in one breath: take fewer, higher-quality, pre-planned, risk-first, laser-tight entries off the Battle Plan, use the 3-Contract System, play perfect chess, and hold a lotto runner so you can capture the big moves… always looking to add to a winning trade.
THE WEEK'S LEVELS AND THE OVERNIGHT MAP
Every Sunday two things get published: the Strong Levels (the horizontal lines on your chart) and the Strong Range (the blue band). These are the levels most likely to matter for the week — where we look to go long, where we look to go short.
- Expected range: 110 points this week — range low to range high, already plotted on your Strong Levels indicator.
- The drop zone: Price dropped into the zone right at the Asia opening. It shot straight up exactly where we expected… but never gave the comeback needed for a perfect long entry.
- The missed long: Two attempts to go long, both missed. Target was the Friday gap fill — a beautiful trade that's now largely exhausted unless we explore the lower part of Battle Plan 1️⃣ and snap back.
- The key level: 7520 — where the Battle Plan 1️⃣ trade originated. Mark it. It's already on your Strong Levels.
On the 30-minute chart, the trend line built off Monday and Tuesday tells the story: touched, touched again, confirmed on the third, bigger pullbacks, then broken, back-tested, and moving forth. Am I excited to short this here? Not very. I already missed my long, so I'll keep mentally trading it and watch what happens at 7520 if we revisit it… and trade Core Strategy as it develops.
THE TAPE IS BULLISH — NO SCORECARD NEEDED
Across the four-up indices, the bias reads itself. When the structure is this clean, you don't need a Bull Bear scorecard to tell you which way the wind blows.
- S&P: Almost at a new all-time high, upper distribution.
- Dow: Didn't participate as strongly… inside the previous day's range.
- NQ: At previous day high — and that's Thursday's high, not Friday's. Friday means nothing; it trades like an overnight session.
- VWAP: Upward-slanting on every index, and price is above it across the board.
Trader Lesson 3
The Asia open deserves the same respect as the RTH open. Give it six minutes to shake out before you commit… chasing the first candle is how good levels turn into bad entries.
THE PREFLIGHT: HAVE YOU EARNED THE RIGHT TO TRADE?
Before you click anything, run the checklist. Trading requires the BEST you — and the day will tell you whether you're cleared for takeoff.
- Emotionally ready? Are you settled, or carrying yesterday into today?
- Physically ready? Good sleep, well rested, not exhausted, not getting over illness.
- Right environment? Right location, right equipment, enough uninterrupted time — no doctor or vet appointment in the next two hours.
- Prepared? Battle Plan reviewed, thorough preflight done, economic calendar checked, a written trade plan in hand.
- Mentally framed? Ready for a max loss day, and committed to trade your system, not your opinion.
Say yes across the board and you're cleared for takeoff. And remember the calendar: it's Monday — Monday after a long holiday. Rarely a great day.
Trader Lesson 4
A Monday after a long holiday is rarely a great trading day. Moderate your expectations going in… the market doesn't owe you a setup just because you showed up.
Trader Lesson 5
Run the full preflight before every session. You have to EARN the right to take a trade — checklist first, click second.
THIS WEEK'S CALENDAR — A QUIETER SLATE
After last week's circus, the slate looks calmer. There's Core PCE, but it rarely turns into much of a move. Maybe we get a normal week.
| Date | Event | Significance |
|---|---|---|
| This week | Core PCE | The Fed's preferred inflation gauge — but historically a low-volatility print that rarely drives a big ES move. |
| Tuesday | Live YouTube Stream | Trade live on Zoom with the team, just like a full member — every Tuesday on the YouTube channel. |
"I love to trade. I just love it… but there are times to be protective. When I highlight those times, take it seriously."
COMMON QUESTIONS FOR ES FUTURES TRADERS
What does it mean to Stand Down in futures trading?
A: Stand Down is a deliberate decision to NOT trade when conditions are unfavorable. When the calendar stacks high-risk events — contract rollover, FOMC, OPEX, and a holiday in one week — the highest-probability move is to step aside and protect capital rather than force low-quality trades.
Why does contract rollover, FOMC, and OPEX make a week harder to trade?
A: Each distorts normal price behavior. Contract rollover is the quarterly shift between futures contract months and muddies liquidity; FOMC is a scheduled volatility event; and OPEX (Options Expiration) pins and warps price as positions unwind. Stack them together and clean, readable setups become rare.
What does it mean to mentally trade a position to completion?
A: It means continuing to track a trade in your mind even after you've taken profit and gone flat. By following where the move went — like a short that could have run 150 points by holding a lotto runner — you train yourself to recognize and hold the big winners next time they set up.
What is a lotto runner in the Micros Trader Core Strategy?
A: A lotto runner is a small, speculative final contract you hold beyond your initial target to capture an outsized extended move. Within the 3-Contract System, you bank profit on the first contracts and let the runner ride to chase the big points with minimal risk.
Why should you treat the Asia open like the RTH open?
A: Both opens produce a violent, unreliable first few minutes as price shakes out. Waiting roughly six minutes before committing lets the initial move settle, so you trade a confirmed level instead of chasing a fake-out candle.
Why is a Monday after a long holiday a low-probability trading day?
A: Holiday-shortened sessions thin out participation and distort structure — the Friday before behaves like an overnight session and means little. Volume and follow-through are often weak, so you should moderate your expectations and demand a cleaner setup before engaging.
What is the 75-20 (7520) level and why does it matter this week?
A: 7520 is the price where the Battle Plan 1️⃣ trade originated and is already plotted on the Strong Levels indicator. It's the most important level going into the week — a spot to watch for a long re-engagement if price revisits it.
What is the trading preflight checklist?
A: It's a pre-session readiness review covering whether you're emotionally and physically ready, in the right environment with enough time, have reviewed the Battle Plan and economic calendar, hold a written trade plan, are prepared for a max loss day, and will trade your system not your opinion. Pass it and you've earned the right to trade.
How does the Three-Contract System help manage risk?
A: The 3-Contract System splits a position so you can take profit at an initial target, scale out at a second, and hold a final runner for the big move. It enforces position sizing discipline and lets you capture large moves while keeping risk laser-tight on each entry.
📅 Upcoming This Week
Hit the bell — every AM Briefing and live trading session this week is already scheduled on YouTube:
- Tuesday, Tue Jun 23: AM Briefing · Live Stream
- Wednesday, Wed Jun 24: AM Briefing · Live Stream
- Thursday, Thu Jun 25: AM Briefing · Live Stream
- Friday, Fri Jun 26: AM Briefing · Live Stream
Helping Futures Traders Via Our Core Strategy Academy Training Program and Futures Trading Group – The Best Emini Group IMHO.
📍 Originally published on MicrosTrader.com
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