ES Chart Technical Analysis... AM Briefing Number 791.
ES Technical Analysis — AM Briefing 791 Timeline
| Time | Chapter |
|---|---|
| 0:00 | Welcome MES Micros Traders |
| 0:04 | Scripture: Pride Before The Fall After a monster week of $10K days and 100-point Battle Plans, the danger is overconfidence. Let him who thinks he stands take heed. |
| 0:33 | Level 10 Conditions For The Next 10 Days CPI, SpaceX, contract rollover, FOMC, Thursday OPEX, shortened holiday week. Friday Rules apply every session. Small is the word. |
| 1:02 | Shortened Holiday Week Schedule Trading Monday through Thursday. Friday closed for Juneteenth. Three-day weekend built in. |
| 1:32 | Free Tuesday Live Stream + YouTube Membership Note Free YouTube stream every Tuesday. Join via browser, not the app — Apple's fee adds $15. |
| 2:27 | Building A Trader — The Group Process Fewer, higher-quality entries. Three-contract system. Lotto runner. Journal everything. |
| 3:25 | Paul Tudor Jones — Protect What You Have Goal isn't to make money — it's to protect what you have. Control risk on your worst day, not your best. |
| 4:24 | Trade Of The Week — BP2 Lotto Runner Last week's BP2 ran 200+ points into the weekend. A held lotto runner could be 300+ points by now. |
| 4:53 | Contract Rollover To September TradingView rolled Sunday this cycle, not Monday. Trade the September contract today. |
| 8:15 | Back-Adjust Vs Unadjusted All-Time Highs SPY and SPX are continuous cash — they show the true all-time highs. Futures distort after rollover. |
| 10:11 | Today's Chart Read — Strong Bulls, No Sellers Russell at new ATH. Dow near ATH. Don't force shorts above key Strong Levels. |
| 11:09 | Today's Key Strong Levels Two key Strong Levels frame the day. Wait for a reversal pattern before any short. See you 15 minutes before the open. |
MES MICROS TRADE PLAN
AFTER A MONSTER WEEK, TRADE SMALL — OVERCONFIDENCE IS THE NEXT BLOW-UP
Posted: Monday June 15, 2026
Last week was a monster — ten-thousand-dollar days, Battle Plan trades running one hundred-plus points, multiple times. That's exactly when the danger creeps in. This S&P 500 futures pre-market analysis opens with scripture for a reason… therefore let him who thinks he stands take heed lest he fall. The next ten days stack CPI, SpaceX, contract rollover, FOMC, Thursday OPEX, and a shortened holiday week. Level 10 conditions are here — trade small, trade fewer, or step aside.
THE SCRIPTURE AND THE OVERCONFIDENCE TRAP
After a week where traders posted $10,000-plus days and Battle Plans ran one hundred-plus points multiple times, the temptation is to come in Monday feeling bulletproof. That's the setup for the worst trade of your career.
- The scripture: "Therefore let him who thinks he stands take heed lest he fall." Pride is the warning. The fall is right around the corner when overconfidence rules your trade plan instead of your trade plan ruling your trading.
- The pattern: Big week → trader sizes up → first loss feels survivable → second loss compounds → the account that took months to build gets handed back in days.
- The fix: Trade the same process, the same size, the same patience as you did the week before the monster week. Nothing changes. Nothing scales up just because last week paid.
Trader Lesson 1
After a monster week, size down, not up. The market doesn't owe you a repeat… and your overconfidence is the cleanest entry the market has all year.
LEVEL 10 CONDITIONS — THE NEXT TEN DAYS
Last week's Battle Plan flagged it ahead of time… the next ten days are extra-warned. The catalyst stack is stupid.
| Date | Event | Significance |
|---|---|---|
| Mon Jun 15 | Contract Rollover | September contract is now the front month. Charts distort. |
| Tue Jun 16 | Free YouTube Live Stream | The free Costco sample — come check the room out. |
| Wed Jun 17 | FOMC + Day Before OPEX | Two volatility events stacked on a single session. |
| Thu Jun 18 | OPEX | Options expiration pulled forward — Friday is closed. |
| Fri Jun 19 | Market Closed — Juneteenth | Three-day weekend built in. Take it. |
Friday Rules apply to every one of these sessions. Lions, tigers, and bears — oh my. CPI, SpaceX, rollover, FOMC, OPEX, holiday — all in ten days.
Trader Lesson 2
When the calendar stacks four or five major catalysts inside ten days, that's a Level 10 environment. Small is the word. Take the fam on vacation… or take the next ten days off. Either is a win.
PAUL TUDOR JONES — PROTECT WHAT YOU HAVE
The tip of the day comes from one of the greats. Paul Tudor Jones emphasizes the goal is not to make money. The goal is to protect what you have.
- The core idea: Even with a strong Core Strategy, sizing too large or ignoring stop losses leads to a career-ending blow-up.
- The most important sentence in trading psychology: "You must be able to control your risk on your worst day, not your best day."
- Why it matters: When the market touches and goes, everyone's a genius. Up twenty, thirty, forty points instantly… everyone feels smart. The true test of a trader is what they do on the worst day.
Trader Lesson 3
Build your position sizing for the day you're wrong four times in a row, not the day everything works. Your worst day determines everything. Not your best.
TRADE OF THE WEEK — BP2 LOTTO RUNNER
Last week's Battle Plan number two was the trade. If you held a single lotto runner — one contract left on after scaling — you could have walked into the weekend up two hundred points.
- Lotto runner defined: The final contract of the Three-Contract System. After taking your first profit target and your second, the last contract is left to run with a wide stop. You're playing for the outlier move.
- Why hold over a weekend: In the right account type, a held lotto runner across a weekend can compound — and last week's BP2 runner could potentially be three hundred points in the green by now.
- The qualifier: Not every account can hold weekend exposure. Funded accounts and small cash accounts especially — know your rules before you carry overnight, let alone weekend.
Trader Lesson 4
How to manage a runner in futures starts with the decision before you enter — first target, second target, runner stop. The lotto runner only pays when you let it run… which means you must already have profits booked on the first two contracts.
CONTRACT ROLLOVER — TRADE THE SEPTEMBER CONTRACT
One of the least favorite times to even look at the chart. Today is the official rollover day — September is now the contract you trade.
- Rollover timing shifted: Historically TradingView's continuous ES chart rolled on Tuesday. This cycle it rolled Sunday — caught by surprise overnight. Always confirm where your chart's continuous data is sourced from.
- Back-adjust button: On a continuous chart, the back-adjust toggle changes whether prior contract prices are shifted to line up with the current contract. Some traders back-adjust, some don't. Each camp makes fun of the other. Pick a side and be consistent.
- The all-time high problem: The September ES contract has barely traded near the all-time high. The volume just started rolling in last week. The futures chart's "all-time high" can be misleading right after rollover.
- The fix — use cash: SPY and SPX are not rollover-adjusted. They are the continuous cash market. For the true ES futures key levels today around all-time highs, mark them from SPY and SPX, then map back to the futures contract.
Trader Lesson 5
Use SPY and SPX to identify true all-time highs. The futures contract distorts after every rollover — the cash market doesn't.
TODAY'S CHART READ — STRONG BULLS, NO SELLERS
Russell is at a new all-time high. Dow took out its unadjusted all-time high and is sitting near its other all-time high. The read is simple… there are no sellers.
- The structural read: Two key Strong Levels frame today's session. As long as price stays above them, do not be looking to short.
- Last night's tape: Price reached the Strong Level overnight, had a small bounce — but it was not a reversal. It came back, butted its head, retested, retested, retested, got under, retested some more. That confirms the level is real, but it doesn't give a short.
- What would change the call: A clean reversal pattern at the Strong Level on the RTH open. That's the only short setup worth looking at above these levels — and it has to be traded live, in real time, with the room.
- If we trade down to BP1: Two possible entries are marked on the Strong Levels indicator. BP2 below would become an add-on, not a fresh entry.
Trader Lesson 6
Don't force a short when there are no sellers. Wait for price to come to your level. Wait for a reversal pattern. If neither shows up, you don't have a trade. Trading discipline in ES futures starts with the trades you don't take.
"You must be able to control your risk on your worst day, not your best day. Your worst day determines everything."
COMMON QUESTIONS FOR ES FUTURES TRADERS
What are "Level 10 trading conditions" and why is this week one of them?
A: Level 10 conditions describe an environment where multiple high-impact catalysts stack inside a short window — making the tape unusually unpredictable. This week is Level 10 because it combines CPI, a SpaceX event, contract rollover, FOMC, Thursday OPEX, and a shortened holiday week with Friday closed. When that many catalysts collide, the prudent response is smaller size, fewer trades, or stepping aside entirely.
What are "Friday Rules" and when do they apply?
A: Friday Rules are MicrosTrader's heightened-caution protocol for high-risk sessions — fewer trades, smaller size, higher-conviction setups only. They're named after Friday because that's the most common day they apply, but they extend to any session with stacked catalysts. For the next ten days, Friday Rules are in effect every single day.
What is contract rollover and which ES contract should I trade today?
A: Contract rollover is the quarterly transition between expiring ES futures contracts. Trade the September contract today — that's the new front month. Volume has been migrating from the prior contract to September over the past week, and the official roll happened this past Sunday on TradingView's continuous chart.
Why use SPY and SPX for all-time highs instead of the ES futures chart?
A: SPY and SPX are continuous cash-market instruments — they're never rollover-adjusted, so their price history is unbroken. ES futures, by contrast, change contracts quarterly, and depending on whether you back-adjust the chart, the "all-time high" on ES can be a number that the current contract never actually traded at. For true ES futures key levels around the all-time high, mark them from SPY/SPX and map them back to ES.
What is the Three-Contract System and how does the lotto runner work?
A: The Three-Contract System is the MES micro futures trade plan framework — three contracts entered together, with the first taken off at the first profit target, the second at the second target, and the third held as a "runner" for the outlier move. The lotto runner is that final contract — left on with a wide stop to chase a big extended move. It only works when the first two contracts have already booked profits, paying for the risk on the runner.
What did Paul Tudor Jones mean by controlling risk on your worst day?
A: He meant that your position sizing and stop-loss discipline have to be built for the day you're wrong four times in a row — not the day everything works. On good days, everyone looks like a genius. The trader who survives long-term is the one whose worst day doesn't end the career. Build sizing for the worst case; the upside takes care of itself.
Why shouldn't I short when the chart shows "no sellers"?
A: "No sellers" means the structure has zero confirmed supply — new all-time highs in adjacent indices, no reversal patterns, no failed retests. Shorting into that is fighting the dominant flow. The discipline is to wait for price to reach a Strong Level and show a reversal pattern. If neither shows up, the trade doesn't exist yet — and that's the correct read, not a missed opportunity.
Why is Wednesday especially dangerous this week?
A: Wednesday stacks FOMC on the day before OPEX. FOMC moves the tape on monetary policy; OPEX moves the tape on dealer hedging flows. Having them back-to-back means two distinct volatility regimes inside thirty-six hours — with Thursday's OPEX itself, then Friday closed. Plan trades for that session knowing the risk-of-ruin per trade is materially higher than a normal Wednesday.
MICROS TRADER BASICS
Capital Preservation First
Stop losses are not failures. They are the insurance premium required to run a trading business. You are going to have losses. Accept it. The goal is to stay alive to trade another day.
The Leverage Matrix inside the Core Strategy Academy keeps your risk predefined so that you don't blow accounts. Simple, scalable, and locked in before you are intoxicated with trading.
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