ES Emini AM Briefing #794
AM BRIEFING
ES CHART | KEY LEVELS | SETUPS
ES Technical Analysis — AM Briefing 794 Timeline
Thursday June 18, 2026
| TIME | CHAPTER |
|---|---|
| 0:00 | Welcome ES MES Futures Traders |
| 0:25 | Weekly Scripture — Watch The Overconfidence Let him who thinks he stands take heed lest he fall. Overconfidence in volatile markets is how accounts blow up fast. |
| 1:00 | OPEX Thursday — Final Live Stream Of The Week Tomorrow's market is closed for Juneteenth. Today is the last live YouTube and Zoom session before the long weekend. |
| 1:35 | Next Week's News Drivers Preview PCE, GDP, sentiment, and expectations next week — no really big events, so trading should normalize. |
| 2:15 | The Micros Trader System Overview Fewer, higher-quality, pre-planned entries using the 3-Contract System with a lotto runner to capture the big moves. |
| 3:15 | Tip Of The Day — Adjust Your Trade Plan Now FOMC is dangerous. Review your trade plan while it's fresh. Patch the holes the volatility exposed. |
| 3:55 | FOMC Aftermath — 75 Down, 70 Up, 115 Down 360+ points of movement in one session, then a 100+ point rebound overnight. The day after FOMC is just as dangerous. |
| 4:40 | Trade Review — The Long The Night Before 25-point winner kicks off the review. Sets up the bounce power concept for what comes next. |
| 5:30 | First Time Is The Best Time On The Battle Plan The first published Battle Plan entry is the freshest. Subsequent taps steal bounce power until the level fails. |
| 6:15 | FOMC Long Entry — Battle Plan 1 Took the long off the strong level, stop moved to break even, got stopped. No big deal — bounce came as expected. |
| 7:00 | Battle Plan 2 Bounce — Take Your 20 Pointer Strong level held for the bounce. Instant 20 pointer if you took it. Don't overthink the easy win. |
| 7:55 | The Afternoon Short — Battle Plan 3 Setup Progression of two shorts aiming for the bull bear line. First short small with break even stop. |
| 8:55 | Adding To The Winner With Locked Stops Pre-set add order at the next strong level. Combined stop moved to capture the original 10 points across both contracts. |
| 9:50 | The Bounce Power Concept Explained Each tap steals bounce power. The level already gave one big bounce — the next tap was weaker by design. |
| 10:45 | Greedier Short Off The Second Strong Level Skipped the first strong level short and waited for the second. Got the cleaner move because the level was fresher. |
| 11:30 | Overnight Battle Plan 1 — The Missed Entry Order at 48 missed by a hair when price ripped above. Almost market-ordered at 7520 — resisted the chase. |
| 12:20 | Loathing The Missed Move Picture the Grinch when you say it. A clean 20 pointer ran without you. Discipline held — no chase. |
| 13:00 | Missed Entries Are Part Of Trading You're not going to be in every one of them. It's okay. There's always another setup at another level. |
| 13:50 | Strong Levels Crushed The Overnight Session Sunday-published Strong Levels delivered clean ping-pong bounces all night long. The plan worked. |
| 14:35 | Current Market Snapshot — Above Sunday's High Inside previous day range, upward-slanting VWAP, RTH Halfback in play. Dow not really participating in the upside. |
| 15:20 | The Ladder-Back Long Setup Lose the two overhead levels, ladder back above, look long. That's the cleanest re-entry on the chart right now. |
| 16:05 | Pullback Math — 37 Of 40 To 60 Points Done Normal pullback range is 40 to 60 points. We got 37 overnight. A 50 point pullback would tag the next strong level. |
| 16:50 | Bulls Control — Shorts Are Counter, Small If At All The big pullback already happened. Careful thinking you need to short this now. Trade with structure, not against it. |
| 17:35 | Closing & CTA — Together We Trade Better Get tomorrow's trades tonight at microstrader.com. Join Zoom 15 minutes before the open. Good luck trading today. |
MES MICROS TRADE PLAN
BOUNCE POWER — WHY THE FIRST TAP OF A LEVEL IS ALWAYS THE BEST TAP
Posted: Thursday June 18, 2026
Today stacks OPEX Thursday on top of the day after FOMC… and tomorrow the market is closed. A risk sandwich with no exit door. Yesterday delivered 75 points down, 70 points up, then 115 points back down — and the overnight session has already rebounded over 100 points to clean it all up. The session's biggest gift isn't a setup… it's a CONCEPT. Bounce power gets stolen with every tap of a level. The first time price visits a Strong Level is the most fresh, the most explosive, the highest-probability entry. Miss the first tap and you're trading a weaker version of the same trade. Bulls control. Shorts are counter. Small, if at all.
The Risk Sandwich — Post-FOMC + OPEX + Holiday-Closed Friday
The day after FOMC is often JUST AS DANGEROUS as FOMC itself. Stack OPEX on top of that. Then add a closed market tomorrow for Juneteenth. That's three risk multipliers in a single session — and most traders will treat it like any other Thursday.
Yesterday's FOMC alone moved like this:
- 75 points down on the initial spike
- 70 points up on the bounce
- 115 points back down for the second leg
- 100+ point rebound overnight to retrace most of it
That's 360+ points of total movement across about 18 hours. On a session like today, your written trade plan outranks the Battle Plan. If the conditions don't match what you wrote down, Stand Down. Did your trade plan account for FOMC volatility? Did you actually follow it? Now — while it's fresh — is the time to adjust. Not next week. Not after the next painful trade. Now.
Trader Lesson 1
The day AFTER a high-impact event is often as treacherous as the event itself. Pair it with OPEX or a holiday-shortened week and your written plan — not the Battle Plan — becomes your final filter. If conditions don't match, Stand Down.
Bounce Power — The Core Concept Of Yesterday's Session
This is the single most valuable lesson from the trade review. Every time price taps a Strong Level and bounces, it steals some of that level's BOUNCE POWER. The first tap is always the freshest. The most loaded. The highest-probability reaction.
Yesterday's Sunday-published Strong Level got tapped multiple times:
- First tap: Clean bounce, full extension, easy 20-pointer. The trade.
- Second tap: Smaller bounce, weaker follow-through.
- Third tap: Marginal reaction.
- Eventually: The level FAILS — and the dump that follows is exactly what you'd expect from a level that has been bled dry.
This is why the first published Battle Plan entry is almost always the highest-quality entry. It's not arbitrary. The setup degrades with every tap that doesn't break the level. Take the first one… or wait for the failure-and-reclaim.
Trader Lesson 2
The first tap of a Strong Level is the best tap. Every subsequent visit steals bounce power until the level eventually breaks. Take the freshest version of the trade… or wait for the liquidation break.
The Afternoon Short — How To Add To A Winner Without Giving Anything Back
Battle Plan 3 yesterday set up as a progression of two shorts targeting the bull bear line. Here's the EXACT mechanics of how the trade was managed — because adding to a winner is one of the hardest skills in futures trading, and most people do it wrong.
The setup:
- First short entry off the Strong Level — small size, stop above structure.
- Stop moved to break even almost immediately. One or two ticks risk.
- Pre-set order to ADD at the next Strong Level below. Not a discretionary chase — a planned add.
- 10-point lock-in on the original contract. The original trade can no longer lose.
- Add fills automatically. Combined stop moves to capture the original 10 points across both contracts.
- 20-point lock-in as price continues. Stop trails again.
- Exit ~10 points from the next Battle Plan long entry. Don't fight the next plan — book it.
The trade was already heavy on bounce power that had been stolen earlier in the session. The setup was clean. The execution was MECHANICAL. No emotion. No "should I add or not?" moment. The order was sitting there. Price ripped through. The system did the work.
Trader Lesson 3
When you add to a winner, your combined stop MUST protect what the original entry already earned. Set the add as a pre-placed order, not a discretionary chase. Mechanical execution beats emotional sizing every time.
Missed Entries Are Part Of Trading — And That's OK
The overnight Battle Plan 1 long ripped above the entry by 2 points before pulling back to the Strong Level. The order at 48 missed by a hair. The order ALMOST got moved to 50 — but didn't. A near-miss on a clean 20-pointer.
What you DON'T do: market order in chase. The temptation was there. "I did so well yesterday I almost did a market order." The discipline held. The trade got skipped. The 20-pointer happened without you.
This is the cost of price-precise entries. Sometimes the trade runs without you. You miss the move. You loathe the miss. You picture the Grinch when you say it. Then you wait for the NEXT setup — because there's always a next setup.
Trader Lesson 4
A missed entry is NOT permission to market-order chase. The discipline that earned you yesterday's wins is the same discipline that lets the next trade come to YOUR level. Hold the line.
Where We Stand Right Now — And The Setup Worth Watching
Going into the RTH open, here's the structural read:
- Bulls control still. Above Sunday's high. Above the Sunday opening.
- Inside previous day range. Not bearish. Not yet.
- VWAP upward-slanting with price in the upper distribution.
- RTH Halfback in play — the midpoint of yesterday's range is right here.
- Dow not really participating in the upside — but not below yesterday's low either. Neutral cross-confirm.
- 37-point overnight pullback already happened. Typical range is 40–60 points. Could see a deeper 50-point pullback to the next Strong Level.
The setup of interest: lose the two levels overhead, ladder back above. That's the cleanest long re-entry on the chart right now. The wedge between the trendline and the Strong Levels above is where the decision gets made.
Next Week's News Drivers — Back To Normal-ish
After today's OPEX Thursday and tomorrow's Juneteenth close, next week is shaping up cleaner:
| Event | Significance |
|---|---|
| PCE | Fed's preferred inflation gauge — moves rates expectations. |
| GDP | Backward-looking growth print — moderate market impact. |
| Sentiment / Expectations | Consumer-side data — lower-tier mover. |
None of the really REALLY big events. Translation: next week should be back to normal trading. Use today and tomorrow to reset. Journal yesterday's FOMC trades while they're fresh. Patch the holes in your trade plan that the volatility exposed.
"The first time is the best time. It's the most fresh."
COMMON QUESTIONS FOR ES FUTURES TRADERS
What is the bounce power concept in ES futures trading?
A: Bounce power is the idea that every time price taps a Strong Level and bounces, the level loses some of its reactive strength. The first tap is the freshest and produces the strongest, cleanest bounce. Each subsequent tap delivers a weaker reaction until the level eventually fails and breaks. That's why the first published Battle Plan entry is almost always the highest-probability trade — you're taking the level at its strongest, before the bounce power has been stolen by earlier taps.
Why is the day after FOMC often as dangerous as FOMC day?
A: The day after FOMC carries leftover positioning, unwinding hedges, and continued volatility as the market digests the prior day's statement. Algos and large players reposition. Liquidity can be thin. Yesterday's FOMC produced 360+ points of total movement across the session, and the overnight rebound has already retraced over 100 points of that. On post-FOMC sessions — especially when paired with OPEX or a holiday — your written trade plan outranks the Battle Plan.
What does it mean to Stand Down in trading?
A: Stand Down is a direct command in the MicrosTrader system to step away from the screen when conditions don't match your written trade plan. It is not weakness — it is discipline. On Level 10 risk sessions like post-FOMC OPEX Thursdays, the cost of being wrong is multiplied. Stand Down means no trade, no exception, until conditions align with what you pre-decided to trade.
What is a Battle Plan in MicrosTrader's system?
A: The Battle Plan is the daily tiered trade plan published by MicrosTrader.com. It contains specific entry levels labeled BP1 through BP5 (or BP6), each tied to a Strong Level on the chart. BP1 is typically the highest-probability entry of the day. The Battle Plan is delivered nightly so traders can plan their session before the market opens rather than reacting in real time.
What is the 3-Contract System and how does it work?
A: The 3-Contract System is MicrosTrader's core position sizing framework. The first contract is taken off quickly for a base profit, the second is held for a measured target like a key level, and the third is held as a lotto runner to capture extended moves. This structure removes emotional exit decisions, locks in profit at multiple stages, and keeps you exposed to the big move without risking your earned profit.
How should I add to a winning trade on ES futures?
A: Place the add as a pre-set order at the next Strong Level along your direction. When the add fills, immediately move your combined stop so it still captures the original trade's profit — never give back what you've already earned. The mechanical approach removes emotion: the order is sitting there, price ripped through, the system did the work. If your combined stop still risks the original profit, you're not adding, you're gambling.
What is OPEX and why does it matter for futures traders?
A: OPEX is options expiration — typically the third Friday of each month, with quarterly Quad Witch OPEX delivering even higher volume. Options market makers must rebalance massive hedges around OPEX, which produces unusual volatility, pinning behavior, and sharp reversals. When OPEX stacks with FOMC, contract rollover, or a holiday-shortened week, risk multiplies. Most disciplined traders cut size or Stand Down entirely.
What should I do when I miss an entry on a futures trade?
A: Let it go. Do not market-order chase. The discipline that earned your wins is the same discipline that requires you to wait for the next setup at the next level. A missed entry is the cost of price-precise trading — sometimes the trade runs without you. There's always another trade. Loathing the miss is fine. Chasing it is what blows accounts.
How do Strong Levels work for overnight ES futures trading?
A: Strong Levels are key high-conviction price zones published in advance by MicrosTrader — typically marked on Sunday for the entire trading week. They are derived from prior session structure, value area extremes, and volume nodes. Overnight, Strong Levels often act as clean ping-pong zones, providing high-quality entries when price approaches them for the first time. Their reactive strength degrades with each tap, which is why the first visit is usually the best trade.
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📍 Originally published on MicrosTrader.com
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