ES Futures Trade Setups #331
ES Futures FOMC Recap — AM Briefing 792 Timeline
| Time | Chapter |
|---|---|
| 0:00 | Welcome MES Micros Traders Open with scripture — overconfidence warning: let him who thinks he stands take heed lest he fall. |
| 0:34 | OPEX Thursday Setup Market closed Friday. Next week's drivers: PCE, GDP, sentiment, expectations. |
| 1:03 | The System Fewer higher-quality pre-planned trades, the three-contract system, the lotto runner, and journaling. |
| 1:33 | Tip of the Day — FOMC Is Dangerous Do you need to adjust your trade plan? 75 down, 70 up, 115 down, 100-plus rebound. |
| 2:31 | Trade Review — The FOMC Long Battle Plan 1, first time is the best time. |
| 2:59 | Initial FOMC Move Into the Battle Plan — the long at 65.20. |
| 3:57 | Battle Plan 2 Bounce The 20-pointer off the second strong level. |
| 4:23 | Should You Have Been Trading FOMC? Battle Plan 3 progression and decision framework. |
| 4:51 | The Short — Step In Here If any short sellers, step in here at the level. |
| 5:27 | Stop Management Break even, locking 10, locking 20, adding at 75.20. |
| 5:56 | Bounce Power Concept Already stolen tons of bounce power from the move. |
| 6:54 | The Afternoon Short Going greedier on the second strong level. |
| 7:51 | Overnight Battle Plan Long Missed the entry — loathe missing this move. |
| 8:20 | Missed Entries at 48 and 50 Welcome to trading — they happen. |
| 9:20 | Strong Levels Overnight Sunday-published levels performed well overnight. |
| 9:50 | YouTube Membership Note Join via browser, not the app, to avoid Apple's cut. |
| 10:16 | Chart Read Losing two levels and laddering back above them. |
| 10:46 | Bulls Control — Pullback Math 40 to 60 points is the typical pullback range. |
| 11:45 | Above Sunday High At the Sunday opening — trade location matters. |
| 12:03 | Posture Inside previous day range, upward VWAP, RTH halfback, tentatively bullish. |
| 12:32 | Close See you on Zoom and YouTube before the open. |
MES MICROS TRADE PLAN
OPEX Thursday — Don't Get Cocky Just Because You Caught FOMC
Posted: Thursday June 18, 2026
OPEX Thursday lands on the final trading day of the week with the market closed Friday, and the post-FOMC tape is already proving why overconfidence kills accounts… 75 down, 70 up, 115 back down, then 100-plus back overnight. This morning's ES futures morning briefing walks through the Battle Plan trade reviews from the FOMC session, shows exactly how a short was scaled into a runner using locked-in profit as protection, and lays out the lone setup worth watching into the open. The lesson stack is heavy on risk-first execution… preplanned entries at strong levels, the bounce power concept, and why the first tap of a level is almost always the best tap. If you're looking for an ES futures daily trade setups roadmap into OPEX, this is the briefing to read before the bell.
OPEX Thursday + Day After FOMC = Be Careful, Careful, Careful
Today is OPEX Thursday with the market closed tomorrow… a rare calendar combo that turns an already squirrelly tape into a minefield. The day after FOMC is often just as dangerous as FOMC itself because dealers reposition, gamma unwinds, and the overnight rebound chops through every "obvious" level. Stack OPEX on top of that and you have two volatility regimes layered on the same session.
This week's scripture sets the tone… "Therefore let him who thinks he stands take heed lest he fall." Translation for traders: the FOMC win does not mean today is a layup. Size down, slow down, and respect the chop.
Trader Lesson 1
The day after FOMC and the OPEX session both demand smaller size and tighter stops. When they overlap, treat the chart as live ammo… fewer trades, higher quality, no hero entries.
The FOMC Trade Plan Audit — Do It While It's Fresh
Tip of the day… FOMC is dangerous, and right now is the moment to audit your behavior. Not next week. Not after the weekend. Now… while the trades, the misses, and the emotional moments are still vivid.
Three questions to walk through before the open:
- Did you have a trade plan going in? If the answer is no, that is your number one priority before the next FOMC.
- Did you trade your plan? Or did you freelance when the candles started flying?
- What adjustments need to be made? Stop placement, contract count, hands-off windows around the release… write them down today.
Trader Lesson 2
Trading discipline ES futures is built in the post-mortem, not the live trade. Audit your FOMC session today while the memory is hot… that is when the corrections actually stick.
FOMC Battle Plan Trade Review — First Tap Is the Best Tap
The initial FOMC move dropped right into a published Battle Plan. The long got taken at the level on one micro, stop instantly to break even, and the tape stopped him out before the bigger move. No big deal… it was an expected initial bounce zone, and the level then delivered a beautiful ping-pong off the strong levels.
From there, the long off the 65.20 strong level produced a clean move. Battle Plan 2 then bounced at the level… small bounce, no follow-through, and the takeaway is critical: if you took that trade, your stop belonged just under the strong level for protection, or you grab the instant 20-pointer and move on.
Every key level has a finite amount of bounce power. The first tap usually has the most juice. The second and third taps still pay, but the probability of a clean breakdown rises with every test.
Trader Lesson 3
When price returns to an ES futures key level today for a second or third tap, lower your expectations… the bounce power has already been spent. Trade smaller, take profit faster, or sit it out.
The Short That Became a Runner — How to Scale With Locked-In Profit
This is the trade of the session and the cleanest example of the three contract system in action. Battle Plan 3 had two shorts mapped, hoping to reach the bull-bear line.
The exact sequence:
- Initial short at the strong level with the call: "If there are any short sellers, they should step in here. Short, small."
- Stop moved to break even immediately… capital protected, risk neutralized.
- Resting add order placed at 75.20… when price ripped through, the add filled automatically.
- Profit locked in stages… break even, to 10 pointer, to 20 pointer as price worked lower.
- Combined-stop trail after the add… stop set so the two-contract position still captured what a single-entry 10-pointer would have netted. Worst case: $50 in MES points secured, but with double the leverage on a continuation move.
Result: a runner that targeted the bull-bear line and stopped 10 points shy of the next Battle Plan long… which is why profit came off there.
Trader Lesson 4
How to manage a runner in futures: never give back locked-in profit to chase more. Use a combined stop that protects what a single-entry win would have produced, then let the second contract work. That is the three contract system doing its job.
Missed Entries Are Part of the Job
Overnight published Battle Plan 1 long ripped above the level without a clean entry. The order sat at 48… price missed by 2 points on the first pushback, then eventually tapped 48 on a second test that didn't fit the plan. Two entries missed. The move went without him.
The takeaway is not "be sad about the miss" but: protect the integrity of your plan. If the first tap is the trade you take, do not chase the second tap just because the first one got away. You will not be in every trade. That is fine.
Trader Lesson 5
Futures trading psychology lives or dies on missed entries. Chasing turns a missed winner into a real loser. Skip it, watch it, learn from it, and wait for the next plan-aligned setup.
Where Price Sits Right Now — The Only Trade Worth Watching
Bulls control. Inside previous day range. Upward-slanting VWAP with price working the upper distribution. Sitting at RTH halfback, back above the Sunday high, near the Sunday opening. Dow is not confirming the upside but is not under yesterday's low either. Net read: tentatively bullish until price proves otherwise.
One trade idea on the radar:
- The setup: Lose the two stacked strong levels overhead, then ladder back above them. That reclaim is the long trigger.
- What to watch for: Difficulty breaking through resistance the first time. Probably not a one-and-done break.
- Pullback math: Standard pullback off a leg is 40 to 60 points. Last leg measured 37 points… not horrible. A 50-point pullback would test the next strong level below.
Trader Lesson 6
A reclaim-and-ladder long after a breakdown is one of the highest-quality continuation patterns in an uptrend. Wait for the loss of the level, then the structured push back above… that is your entry, not the initial break.
Next Week's News Drivers — Back to Normal
The heavy event week ends today. Looking ahead, next week brings PCE, GDP, consumer sentiment, and inflation expectations. Important data… but none of them sit in the same tier as FOMC or CPI.
| Event | Significance |
|---|---|
| PCE | The Fed's preferred inflation gauge. Can move the tape if it deviates from expectations. |
| GDP | Growth read. Lower-impact than PCE on a revision print, but watch for surprise. |
| Consumer Sentiment | Soft-data print. Can spike intraday volatility but rarely sets the weekly tone. |
| Inflation Expectations | Tucked inside the sentiment release. Bond market watches it closely… so does the Fed. |
Translation: next week could mark a return to normal trading conditions. Lower volatility, cleaner structure, more predictable session behavior. That is when the three contract system really earns its keep.
"The first time is the best time. It's the most fresh."
COMMON QUESTIONS FOR ES FUTURES TRADERS
What is OPEX Thursday and why does it matter for ES futures traders?
A: OPEX stands for Options Expiration. When OPEX falls on a Thursday with the market closed Friday, you get a one-day combination of options-related dealer flow and the post-FOMC rebalance. The result is a tape that whips harder than normal… 75-point swings followed by 100-point counter-moves are routine. Smaller size, tighter stops, fewer trades.
Why is the day after FOMC considered as dangerous as FOMC itself?
A: After the Fed announcement, dealers reposition, gamma exposures unwind, and overnight liquidity is thin. Levels that held during the release can fail the next session… or vice versa. The volatility doesn't end at the press conference. Treat the next session with the same respect you give the actual release.
What is the bounce power concept?
A: Every key level has a finite amount of buying or selling reaction it can deliver. The first tap of a level usually carries the most bounce power because participants have been waiting for it. Each subsequent tap drains a little more of that reactive energy. By the third or fourth visit, the level is far more likely to fail than to hold.
How does the three contract system work in a real trade?
A: The three contract system uses position scaling to combine risk control with runner upside. In today's example, the trader entered short small, moved stop to break even, then added a second contract at a pre-set lower price. As price worked lower, profit was locked in stages… first break even, then 10 points, then 20 points. The combined stop trailed in a way that still captured what a single-entry trade would have produced, but with double the leverage on the continuation.
What is the bull-bear line and why does it matter?
A: The bull-bear line is the key dividing level between bullish and bearish bias for the session. Holding above it favors longs and trend continuation. Losing it shifts the bias to shorts and opens the door to deeper downside targets. Traders use it as a trigger for swing entries and as a directional filter for which Battle Plan setups to focus on.
What is RTH halfback and how is it used?
A: RTH halfback is the midpoint of the prior Regular Trading Hours session's range. It acts as a magnet and a pivot. Price often gravitates to halfback, reacts off it, and uses it as a fair-value reference. When price holds above halfback with an upward-slanting VWAP, the read is tentatively bullish… which is the current setup heading into today's open.
How should a trader handle a missed entry on a Battle Plan setup?
A: Let it go. If your order missed by a tick or two and price ran without you, do not chase the second or third tap of the same level. The probability shifts against you with each visit. Take the loss of opportunity, journal the miss, and wait for the next plan-aligned setup. Chasing turns a missed winner into a real losing trade.
What does "Bulls control. Shorts are counter. Small, if at all." actually mean for today's session?
A: It is a directional filter. When bulls control, longs are the primary trade and shorts are only taken counter-trend at exhaustion levels… and only in small size. Today, with price back above the Sunday high and VWAP slanting up, that frame is in play. The reclaim-and-ladder long off the stacked strong levels is the primary trade. A short would be counter and would need to be small if you take it at all.
What is the standard pullback range after a strong leg in ES futures?
A: A typical pullback after a leg measures 40 to 60 points. The current leg pulled back 37 points… close to the low end but acceptable. If the next pullback runs deeper, the 50-point target lines up with the next strong level below, which becomes the next decision zone for longs.
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