AM Briefing #802 · Hold That Runner — Your Best Trade Is The One You're Already In
AM BRIEFING
ES CHART | KEY LEVELS | SETUPS
ES Technical Analysis — AM Briefing 802 Timeline
Wednesday July 1, 2026
| TIME | CHAPTER |
|---|---|
| 0:00 | Welcome ES MES Futures Traders |
| 1:23 | New Month, New Quarter Opening the AM Briefing for Wednesday July 1 with Friday's scripture: be faithful over a few things and be entrusted with many. Steward the small account well. |
| 1:48 | Drivers: Warsh + Day Before NFP Warsh speaks at the opening today, and it's the day before non-farm payroll since markets are closed Friday for the holiday. Another three-day weekend ahead. |
| 2:17 | Tip Of The Day: Hold The Runner You're already in a winning trade — do you need another? Holding a runner is often the very best trade you can make and it proved profitable again this week. |
| 2:45 | Trade Review: Monday's Long Monday's long finished up about 80 points. Held into Tuesday it hit 139 points at max, then pumped toward almost 150 points. |
| 3:14 | Trailing Stop Management Adjust the trailing stop higher behind one or two protection layers, or keep it below the RTH low. Account type dictates how aggressive you can be. |
| 3:44 | Oven Trades vs Microwave Trades One or two trades a week run 100-plus points. Longs get the multi-day oven hold; shorts are fast microwave trades taken small. |
| 4:12 | Battle Plan, Zoom & Core Strategy Price hasn't come into proper Battle Plan zones yet this week. Zoom room has been crushing it and Core Strategy scalping is doing very well. |
| 4:42 | Overnight: Two Shorts Mapped Two shorts were mapped overnight. Battle Plan 1 almost hit but didn't, shifting focus to reading the Battle Plan 2 notes. |
| 5:12 | The Tricky 7520 Level Battle Plan 2 can add to a Battle Plan 1 short. But 7520 is very tricky — it's the exact level that gave Monday's 100-pointer and has been trappy. |
| 5:49 | A Cleaner Short At 7513 The better short may be off 7513 because it sits back inside the range. Two short options mapped for the RTH session. |
| 6:14 | Does This Trade Fit Your Plan? Ask it on every Battle Plan trade. Traders who never short ES can turn Battle Plan 2 off in the indicator entirely. Always use perfect risk management. |
| 6:42 | Cross-Index Confluence Explained ES flows with NQ. Shorting ES while NQ is set to bounce north is tough, but when NQ also points price down at the same spot, both charts agree. |
| 7:36 | Small Stops On Strong Levels Never take a large loss. On Strong Levels use a very small stop two or three points above — you want it to touch and go. |
| 7:49 | Asia Session Signature The Asia session gave the first bounce, then a get-back-under — a legit short entry, with the nearby Strong Level possibly making it better. |
| 8:31 | Journaling In Trade Buddy A trader who journals improves. The journal is embedded in the software and can replace a paid subscription, giving you a full P&L dashboard. |
| 9:30 | P&L By Discipline See how you perform when you score a session A versus C or D. The goal is never to post a C or D again. |
| 10:25 | Performance By Day & Day Tags Find which day of the week you trade best, and tag special days like OPEX, rollover, and the day before non-farm payroll to track them. |
| 10:57 | Lesson Cards & Weekend Review The dashboard keeps cards of big lessons and trader errors — a strong weekend review tool. Today's focus is just the dashboard. |
| 11:26 | Chart: Tagging The Day Open and close the journal right on the chart. Adding today's day tag: day before NFP, then save and close so it's recorded. |
| 12:16 | Chart: Battle Plan 1 & 2 Battle Plan 1's short already hit target before publishing. Battle Plan 2 came down into a level drafted with both a long and a short for its polarity. |
| 13:14 | Range Rotation Thinking After a nice move up and hitting the expected range in two days, a rotation back the other direction would not be a shock. A new range begins. |
| 13:43 | Range Top vs Range Bottom At the top of a range look for shorts, at the bottom look for longs. Price back-tested the range top and bounced — the bounce we wanted first. |
| 14:48 | Strong Level & 7513 Inside Range The Strong Level is a possible long trigger or a trigger to short back into the range. 7513 works because it's back inside the range. |
| 15:16 | Leaning Toward The BP2 Short Still leaning toward Battle Plan 2 as a short back in the range, taken only with the smallest leverage. Nail a short and it's an easy payday. |
| 15:46 | Good Luck & See You Live That's the plan heading into the open. See you live 15 minutes before the market opens. Good luck trading today. |
MES MICROS TRADE PLAN
Hold That Runner — Your Best Trade Is Often The One You're Already In
Posted: Wednesday July 01, 2026
New month, new quarter, and one lesson that keeps paying: the best trade of the week is often the one you're already in. This ES futures morning briefing walks through the Monday long that ran from 80 points to nearly 150 by simply holding the runner and trailing the stop. Today Warsh speaks at the opening and it's the day before non-farm payroll — tomorrow's print, because the markets are closed Friday for another three-day weekend. The Battle Plan mapped two overnight shorts around a tricky 7520 level, with a cleaner short possibly waiting back inside the range at 7513. We also open the hood on the new journaling dashboard built into the Trade Buddy software.
THE RUNNER IS THE EASIEST TRADE ON THE BOARD
Tip of the day… hold that runner. You're already in a winning trade. Do you need another trade? Do you need another trade? This week proved it again. Step back to Monday's long. Depending on your account type, you could have held overnight or re-entered at the exact same price after an exit.
- Monday close: the long finished up roughly 80 points.
- By Tuesday: the screenshot caught it up 139 points at max… then one more pump took it toward almost 150 points.
You keep adjusting your trailing stop higher and higher behind one or two protection layers, or you park it below the RTH low if you want to be more aggressive. On a trailing drawdown account you can't be as aggressive as trading your own cash… so you do you. We tend to get one or two trades a week that go 100 plus points. Which one is it going to be? I wish I knew. That's exactly why you hold — because if price moves your direction, it can go, go, go.
Trader Lesson 1
When you're already in a winner, the highest-value move is usually to hold, not to hunt a fresh trade. You can't know in advance which runner goes 100+ points… so protect the ones that could.
OVEN TRADES VERSUS MICROWAVE TRADES
Here's how to think about direction. I am much more apt to hold a long than a short. I treat shorts like microwave trades and longs like oven trades. I like that bread to stay in the oven and get fully done.
That's why longs earn the multi-day hold and shorts don't. When you nail a short it moves so fast and so aggressive it's an easy payday — but that speed is also why you keep size small. You don't need to be big on a short to do very, very well.
Trader Lesson 2
Hold longs like oven trades — let them fully cook. Treat shorts like microwave trades — fast, small, and in-and-out. Match your hold time and your size to the direction's personality.
THE BATTLE PLAN: A TRICKY 7520 AND A CLEANER 7513
Overnight I did something unusual — I had two shorts mapped. I was really hoping for Battle Plan 1️⃣, and it almost happened but didn't. So the focus shifted to Battle Plan 2️⃣, and the notes matter here.
- Adding, not just entering: Battle Plan 2️⃣ could be used to add to a Battle Plan 1️⃣ short if you'd already gotten short up higher.
- The 7520 caveat: 7520 could be a very tricky level. That's the exact level that gave you the 100-pointer on Monday's long… it's been very trappy.
- The cleaner option: the better short might be off 7513 — because that's back inside the range.
When a level is tricky, I usually draft both a long and a short off it, because it's a level with a lot of polarity. After such a nice move up, and with the first two days already hitting the expected range, a rotation back the other direction would not be a shock.
Trader Lesson 3
At the top of a range look for shorts, at the bottom look for longs. And on a Strong Level, use a tiny 2–3 point stop so a bad entry costs pennies, not a large loss.
DOES THIS TRADE FIT YOUR PLAN? CROSS-INDEX CONFLUENCE
One question belongs on every Battle Plan trade: does this trade fit my trade plan? I have traders who never, ever short ES. They look at a short setup and go — that's not for me. In the indicator you can turn off Battle Plan 2️⃣ and never even see it. If it's not in your plan, it doesn't matter that it exists.
I also use cross-index confluence. Say NQ is coming up to a level where it's likely to bounce north, and ES tends to flow with NQ. Shorting ES into that is a tougher trade. But if NQ is arriving at a spot to bounce price DOWN at the same time ES hits its short location — I like that. That's multi-index confluence: two charts agreeing before you commit.
On this session the Asia session gave the signature we wanted — a first bounce, then a get-back-under. That's a legit entry, and the Strong Level nearby might make it a better short still.
Trader Lesson 4
Before you take any setup, ask if it fits YOUR trade plan — and turn off what doesn't. Then stack the odds with cross-index confluence: let NQ and ES agree on direction before you pull the trigger.
THE JOURNALING DASHBOARD: TAG YOUR SPECIAL DAYS
A trader who journals improves. It's embedded right in the Trade Buddy software, downloadable from the same page that holds the secret link to the Chrome extension. For a full member it can replace a journaling subscription you might be paying 50 bucks a month for.
The dashboard gives you a P&L calendar, a 12-day cumulative P&L, and — most important — P&L by discipline. When you score a session A, how do you actually do? When you score a C or D? My goal is to never post a C or D, and I haven't since starting this process.
- Performance by day of week: find which day you genuinely trade best.
- Day tags: tag OPEX, rollover, tests… and days like today — the day before non-farm payroll — so those conditions show up when you review.
- Trade tags: mark each trade as a Battle Plan or Core Strategy trade, by timeframe, long vs short, and track them all.
Trader Lesson 5
Journal every session and grade your discipline, not just your P&L. Tag the special days — day before NFP, OPEX, rollover — so your dashboard shows you how you really perform under those conditions.
"You're already in a winning trade. Do you need another trade? Hold that runner… it's often the very best trade you can make."
COMMON QUESTIONS FOR ES FUTURES TRADERS
Why is holding a runner often the best trade you can make?
A: Because you're already in a profitable position with no new risk decision required. In ES futures, one or two trades a week tend to run 100-plus points, but you can't know in advance which one it'll be. By holding the runner and trailing your stop, you stay exposed to that outsized move. This week a Monday long went from about 80 points to nearly 150 points simply by being held.
How do you manage a runner in ES futures?
A: You ratchet a trailing stop higher and higher behind one or two protection layers, locking in gains as price advances. A more aggressive alternative is to keep the stop below the RTH (Regular Trading Hours) low. Your account type dictates how aggressive you can be — on a trailing-drawdown account you must give it less room than when trading your own cash.
What does "treat shorts like microwave trades and longs like oven trades" mean?
A: It's a mental model for hold time and size. Longs get the slow, multi-day "oven" hold so the trade can fully cook. Shorts are the fast "microwave" — they move quickly and violently, so you take them small, bank the move, and get out rather than marrying them.
Why keep short positions small in ES futures?
A: When a short works it moves fast and aggressive, so even a small position produces an easy payday. There's no need to carry size to profit, and small size keeps your risk contained if the market squeezes back against you. You can be small on a short and still do very, very well.
Why was the 7520 level called tricky, and why might 7513 be a better short?
A: 7520 is the exact level that launched Monday's 100-point long, so it has a history of trapping traders — high polarity, capable of bouncing price hard either direction. 7513 sits back inside the range, and the upper part of a range favors shorts over longs, making it a cleaner, lower-risk short location.
What is cross-index confluence?
A: It's using a second index to confirm a setup. ES tends to flow with NQ (Nasdaq futures), so shorting ES while NQ is set to bounce north is a tough, low-odds trade. But when NQ is also positioned to push price down at the same spot ES hits its short location, both charts agree — that multi-index agreement raises the probability and confidence of the trade.
How big should my stop be on a Strong Level trade?
A: Very small — just two or three points above the Strong Level. The idea is that price should touch the level and go immediately; if it doesn't, you're out cheaply. The cardinal rule is you never want to take a large loss, so a tight stop on a precise level keeps a wrong read from becoming costly.
Does every Battle Plan setup mean I should trade it?
A: No. The first question on any Battle Plan trade is "does this fit my trade plan?" Some traders never short ES, so a short setup simply isn't for them — and the indicator even lets you turn off a level like Battle Plan 2️⃣ so you never see it. Trading only what fits your plan, with perfect risk management, matters more than taking every mapped level.
Why should I tag special days in my trading journal?
A: Tagging days like the day before non-farm payroll, OPEX, or contract rollover lets your journaling dashboard show how you actually perform under those specific conditions. Combined with grading each session's discipline, it turns your journal into a feedback loop — you can see which day of the week and which conditions produce your best and worst results.
📅 Upcoming This Week
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📍 Originally published on MicrosTrader.com
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