AM Briefing #812 · Range Rules Rule — Map The Edges, Get Paid On The Break
AM BRIEFING
ES CHART | KEY LEVELS | SETUPS
ES Technical Analysis — AM Briefing 812 Timeline
Thursday July 16, 2026
| TIME | CHAPTER |
|---|---|
| 0:00 | Welcome ES MES Futures Traders |
| 0:17 | Bottom Of The Range Into The News George checks the morning numbers with price sitting at the bottom of the range. Retail sales down a touch, no big drivers. |
| 1:36 | AM Briefing Intro George Nottingham, Chief Navigator for the Micros Trader group, introduces the ES/MES futures room and its high-probability scalp-to-swing system. |
| 2:13 | Range-Bound Chop Stuck in range-bound trading with double, triple, and quadruple taps that make runners tough to hold. |
| 2:24 | Day Before Option Expiration Tomorrow is Opex Friday, making today the day before option expiration. Tag it in your Trade Buddy journal because these conditions differ. |
| 2:57 | Name The Price Action: Range Trading This tape is simply range trading — easy to trade once you know where you are and map the locations. |
| 3:25 | Week In Review: Battle Plan Wins Sunday through Wednesday delivered repeated Battle Plan trades, including the same long off the bull-bear line paying 50 points. |
| 4:34 | Trading In The Dark A new Battle Plan member says trading without it felt like trading in the dark — the lights come on with the plan in hand. |
| 5:07 | Vision For The Week Narrowing the system down: the short up top, the 50-point longs at the bottom, and how those points add up. |
| 6:26 | Overnight 80-Point Add-On The overnight 50-pointer printed again; playing the add-on stacked a first leg of ~50 and a second of ~30 for roughly 80 points. |
| 7:01 | Strong Levels Structure Strong Levels are horizontal lines published each Sunday marking the week's key spots, giving the chart structure. |
| 7:43 | Playing Perfect Chess How to trail a runner across sessions — profit before the first strong level, then move the stop 5 to 10 points behind after each RTH close. |
| 8:52 | System Summary Battle Plan for fewer better trades, Core Strategy for entries, tools to refine your process, and community to stay on point. |
| 9:29 | Range Rules Rule A 16-point candle down and 18-point candle up show OPEX chop. Take profit at the top, hold a runner for the eventual breakout. |
| 11:13 | Back To The Bull-Bear Line Price returns to the bottom of the range to challenge the bull-bear line again, with a Battle Plan covering the deeper scenario. |
| 11:30 | Cross-Market Check NQ under the prior-day low, Russell at the bottom of its range — nothing to be scared of, just where everyone sits. |
| 12:06 | Pre-Flight Check Run the readiness checklist: rested, hydrated, time, Battle Plan reviewed, written plan, max-loss ready, and trade your system not your opinion. |
| 12:35 | Quiet Calendar Ahead Next week's economic calendar is dead with only unemployment claims. Cleared for takeoff once every box is checked. |
MES MICROS TRADE PLAN
Range Rules Rule — Know Where You Are And The Lights Come On
Posted: Thursday July 16, 2026
Name the price action first. This is RANGE TRADING… double, triple, quadruple taps at the edges, and once you know that's where you are, it's very easy to trade. This ES futures morning briefing walks the week's Battle Plan wins — 50-pointer after 50-pointer at the same long location — and drops the one rule that made them: take profit up at the top, hold a lotto runner for the day the range finally breaks. It's the day before option expiration, so mark it in your journal and trade careful. Green Over Greed.
NAME THE PRICE ACTION: THIS IS RANGE TRADING
You might ask, what do you call this type of price action? Well… this is range trading. That's exactly what it is. We're stuck in this range-bound tape with double, triple, quadruple taps, and it's very difficult to hold onto a lotto runner if you do. But here's the thing… range trading is very easy to trade IF you know that's where you're at and you're good at mapping those trade locations.
Range trading means price is rotating between a defined top and bottom instead of trending. We look long at the bottom, we look short at the top, and we keep you on the right side of the rotation. The map is the whole game.
Trader Lesson 1
Name the tape before you trade it. When you know it's range trading, you know to buy the bottom and sell the top… the confusion disappears the moment you stop expecting a trend.
THE DAY BEFORE OPTION EXPIRATION — TAG IT
Tomorrow is Opex Friday. That makes today the day before option expiration. If you're using our journaling software, Trade Buddy, make sure you're marking this as the day before option expiration.
Why does it matter? Typically the day before OPEX and the day of OPEX are not the most fun trading conditions… and you're only going to know that if you're tracking it and tagging it. The 16 and 18-point candles this morning are exactly the kind of squirrelly two-way chop these days produce.
Trader Lesson 2
Tag the day before OPEX in your journal. You can't spot a pattern in conditions you never labeled… the tag today is what makes the lesson visible three months from now.
THE WEEK IN REVIEW — SAME LONG, STACKED WINS
This week the Battle Plan has just been amazing. Look at the vision we laid out and how the tape paid it:
- Sunday/Monday: Longs looking at the bottom, shorts up top… three Battle Plan trades right out of the shoot.
- Tuesday: A beautiful Battle Plan long off the bull-bear line, called live on Zoom and YouTube.
- Wednesday overnight: Battle Plan 1 hit — take profit before the next strong level and you had it.
- Wednesday afternoon: Battle Plan 2 — the SAME exact long, in the SAME exact place at the bull-bear line. Two days in a row this trade gave you 50. Then 50 again.
- Overnight into today: The 50-pointer printed again. Play the add-on and you had a first leg of about 50 and a second of about 30… an 80-point sequence from the Battle Plan mappings.
You're not going to be in all of them. Battle Plan 3 fired around midnight — I wasn't in that trade, so I missed it. Oh well… there's another high probability trade around the corner and we wait for it.
Trader Lesson 3
The best trade repeats. When the same location off the bull-bear line pays 50 two and three days running, that's your A+ setup… go back to the well you already mapped instead of hunting new ones.
TAKE PROFIT AT THE TOP, HOLD A RUNNER FOR THE BREAK
Here's all you need to know whether you're trading our system or not. The red up at the top of the range is where it's often better to look for a short… or to take profit on a long. That's exactly what we did the last two days to capture those 50-pointers.
But one day we ARE going to break out of this range. We don't know if it's north or south. All we know is we're going to leave this area eventually. So lean the right way:
- Looking for shorts up top? At least you're doing it in the right location. Hold a lotto runner and if we break to the south… you get paid.
- Get long at the bottom and hold a lotto runner. Break to the north and you are REALLY going to get paid.
When price made it all the way and took your 50-pointer — cool. Nothing wrong with that. The runner is your ticket for the day the 50-point range finally gives way.
Trader Lesson 4
Bank the range trade, keep a runner for the range break. In chop you take the 50 at the edge… but the runner is what turns an ordinary week into a home run the day the range finally lets go.
PLAYING PERFECT CHESS — THE MULTI-DAY HOLD
What about playing perfect chess? From Battle Plan 3 down at the bottom, take the long and TP before the first strong level and you had 30 points on your initial contracts, easy. Keep a model runner at break even.
Then if you want the most perfect chess and a multi-day hold: wait until the RTH session closes, move your stop 5 to 10 points behind. Next day, 5 to 10 points behind again. That tippy-top move yesterday almost traversed 100 points… almost a full hundred. You don't have to try for that, but I keep mentally trading these until they resolve. And the bottom of the range is the location where — if you can hold a lotto runner long — do it, because that's where bulls are going to most heavily defend.
PRE-FLIGHT CHECK: CLEARED FOR TAKEOFF
Before you take a single trade, run the pre-flight check. Are you emotionally ready? Physically ready — did you sleep well, are you hydrated? Right location, right equipment. Then:
- Time: Do I have enough time to trade?
- Battle Plan: Have I reviewed it, read it, listened to it?
- Economic calendar: Checked. Next week is freaking dead — only unemployment claims. We'll talk about that tomorrow.
- Written plan: Do I have a written trade plan?
- Risk: Am I prepared for a max loss day? It's the day before option expiration… be careful.
- Discipline: Will I trade my system and not my opinion? If you keep taking trades outside your system, how do you ever know if your system works?
Answer yes to all of that… and you are cleared for takeoff.
Trader Lesson 5
Run the pre-flight check every session. Trade your system, not your opinion… because taking trades outside your rules means you'll never know whether the system actually works.
"It was like trading in the dark… the lights kind of come on when you have the Battle Plan in your hands."
COMMON QUESTIONS FOR ES FUTURES TRADERS
What is range trading in ES futures?
A: Range trading is when price rotates between a defined top and bottom instead of trending in one direction, often producing double, triple, and quadruple taps at the edges. You look for longs at the bottom of the range and shorts at the top. It's very easy to trade once you correctly name the tape as range-bound and map those edge locations.
Why does the day before option expiration matter for ES futures?
A: The day before OPEX and OPEX Friday itself often produce squirrelly, two-way trading conditions — this session showed a 16-point candle down followed by an 18-point candle right back up. Tagging the day before option expiration in your trade journal is how you build a record of how these sessions actually behave, so you can trade them with the right expectations and size.
What is the bull-bear line and why do the best trades happen there?
A: The bull-bear line is the key level dividing bullish and bearish bias. This week the same long off the bull-bear line at the bottom of the range paid roughly 50 points two and three days in a row. When a mapped location repeats like that, it becomes your highest-conviction trade because bulls defend it heavily.
How do I manage a runner in a range-bound market?
A: In a range you take profit on your initial contracts at the edge — the top for a long, the bottom for a short — and keep a lotto runner on for the eventual breakout. You don't know if the range breaks north or south, so you lean the right direction from the right location. The runner is what pays big the day price finally leaves the range.
What is a lotto runner?
A: A lotto runner is a small, speculative extended position you hold after banking profit on your core contracts. It costs little risk once your stop is at break even, but it captures outsized moves — like the near-100-point move that ran off the bottom of this week's range — when the market finally trends.
How do you play a multi-day hold in ES futures?
A: To play "perfect chess," take profit on your initial contracts before the first strong level, then keep a model runner at break even. Wait until the RTH session closes, trail your stop 5 to 10 points behind, and repeat that trail again the next day. This lets a single well-located runner ride a move that develops over multiple sessions.
What are Strong Levels?
A: Strong Levels are horizontal lines published each Sunday marking the most important price levels expected for the week. They give the chart structure and make trading easier — once a level proves valuable, you pay close attention to it as a spot for entries, targets, and profit-taking.
What should my pre-flight check include before trading ES micro futures?
A: Confirm you're emotionally and physically ready — well-slept, hydrated, right location and equipment. Then verify you have enough time, that you've reviewed the Battle Plan, checked the economic calendar, have a written trade plan, are prepared for a max loss day, and will trade your system and not your opinion. Yes to all of it means you're cleared to trade.
Why should I trade my system instead of my opinion?
A: If you continually take trades outside your system, you can never learn whether the system actually works — your results become a blur of rule-based and impulsive trades. Trading your defined rules is the only way to gather clean feedback and improve, especially through choppy conditions like a range-bound, pre-OPEX tape.
📅 Upcoming This Week
Hit the bell — every AM Briefing and live trading session this week is already scheduled on YouTube:
- Friday, Fri Jul 17: AM Briefing · Live Stream
Helping Futures Traders Via Our Core Strategy Academy Training Program and Futures Trading Group – The Best Emini Group IMHO.
📍 Originally published on MicrosTrader.com
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