AM Briefing #823 — Hold The Runner To The Bull Bear Line
AM BRIEFING
ES CHART | KEY LEVELS | SETUPS
ES Technical Analysis — AM Briefing 823 Timeline
Friday July 31, 2026
| TIME | CHAPTER |
|---|---|
| 0:00 | Welcome ES MES Futures Traders |
| 0:54 | Friday Data And The Week Ahead Quiet Friday with unemployment and revised sentiment. Next week loads up with JOLTS, ADP, claims and non-farm payrolls… a nice week of volatility ahead. |
| 1:12 | Friday Rules In Full Effect Go into the weekend a winner. Trade smaller, adjust your risk and leverage settings, and never try to win the week back on Friday. |
| 1:58 | Hold The Runner… Two 100-Point Days Last two days delivered several 100-point moves off mapped Battle Plan locations. The instruction that paid was to hold the lotto runner. |
| 2:10 | Trader Games This Weekend A new competition format runs this weekend. Free Foundations members and up can join and get scored on discipline, not just points. |
| 2:44 | Trade Review Of The Week Tuesday's 19-point treat, Wednesday's ladder from Battle Plan 1 to Battle Plan 2 for a monster move, and a 100-pointer for the brave at FOMC. |
| 3:20 | Yesterday's Longs To The Bull Bear Line Three longs mapped, long only, no shorts. From Battle Plan 3 down to 1 the runner carried 144 points to the Bull Bear Line, a 94-point winner off Battle Plan 1. |
| 5:09 | The Value Of Zoom And Core Strategy Zoom pays in points saved as much as points earned. A backside Core Strategy entry yesterday ran 40 plus points. |
| 6:26 | Wrap-Up Video Lessons Two calls from last night held true… never short a short covering rally, and hold the lotto runner with all your might. |
| 6:54 | Old School Black And White Chart Build a print template, set Strong Levels to black, print sections at one scale, then cut, tape and re-trade the day by hand with a pencil. |
| 8:46 | Holding Behind Protection Layers George set his stop five points under the RTH low, behind roughly three Strong Levels. That protection layer kept the runner alive to target. |
| 9:56 | No High Probability Entries Tonight A couple of ideas are mapped but the pullback never came. Battle Plan trades are null and void once target is reached. |
| 11:09 | Reclaiming The Bull Bear Line With the Bull Bear Line finally tagged, the plan is to reclaim it and push toward the expected range, traded live as it happens. |
| 11:40 | Other Charts… Cautious Both Ways Price is above the previous day high with a little reversal off the Bull Bear Line. It is Friday, so be cautious of all longs and all shorts. |
| 12:59 | Sign Off, Live In 15 Minutes That wraps the briefing. See you live before the market open. |
MES MICROS TRADE PLAN
Hold The Runner… All The Way To The Bull Bear Line
Posted: Friday July 31, 2026
This ES futures morning briefing closes out a monster week. The tape ran two straight days of several 100-point moves off mapped Battle Plan locations, and this morning price finally tagged the Bull Bear Line for another 144 points. Now it is Friday, and the lesson shifts. There are no high probability Battle Plan entries tonight… and saying that out loud is the plan. Yesterday was payday. Today is about protecting the week, holding what you earned, and understanding why a target that is already reached changes everything on your chart.
THE WEEK THAT PAID… AND THE RUNNER THAT MADE IT
Two days of several 100-point moves. All of them off mapped-out trade locations from the Battle Plan. That is the story of the week. Tuesday handed a little 19-point treat. Wednesday we waited for price to drop into Battle Plan 1, did not get the follow-through, and price laddered down to Battle Plan 2 for a monster move. FOMC gave the brave a 100-pointer right off the level.
Then yesterday. The Battle Plan had three longs mapped and one instruction… long only. Do not short a short covering rally. From an aggressive long at Battle Plan 3, then Battle Plan 2, then Battle Plan 1, the runner carried all the way to the Bull Bear Line. 144 points this morning. A trader who took Battle Plan 1 long on the second move north had a 94-point winner in hand.
Trader Lesson 1
Never short a short covering rally. When the map says long only, every dip is an entry and every short is a fight against the tape.
Trader Lesson 2
Hold that lotto runner with all your might. The mapped board was already drawn to the Bull Bear Line… the runner is how you get paid for reading it right.
HOW TO ACTUALLY HOLD A RUNNER
Holding a runner is not hope. It is structure. The question is simple… where do you park your stop so you stay in the move without getting shaken out on noise? The answer is protection layers. You stay behind your Strong Levels.
Yesterday George set his stop five points under the RTH low from the prior session. Why there? Because it sat behind roughly three Strong Levels of protection. Price would have to chew through all of them to take him out. It never did. That is the whole idea… you are not managing a price, you are managing a wall.
- Pick your protection layer: Count the Strong Levels beneath your entry and set your stop behind the ones that matter.
- Give it room to work: Five points under the RTH low kept the runner alive through the pullback that would have stopped a tight stop.
- Trust the map: The next obvious target was the Bull Bear Line. If the level structure holds, the runner rides to it.
Trader Lesson 3
Hold your runner behind protection layers, not behind hope. Park the stop below several Strong Levels so the market has to earn its way to you before it takes you out.
FRIDAY RULES ARE IN FULL EFFECT
It is Friday, and Friday rules are non-negotiable. Go into the weekend a winner. That is the whole posture. The week is already good… now you protect it.
- Never win your week back on Friday: Consider trading smaller. Friday is not the day to chase what you lost earlier in the week.
- Adjust your risk settings: Shrink your daily stop limit and your leverage metrics before the open. If you decide to go smaller, set it in the platform, do not wing it.
- Strict leverage adherence: A triple must on Friday. No drifting size just because the week was hot.
- Bank a percentage: If you grabbed one of those 100-pointers this week, take a percentage of it and let that be all you are willing to risk today.
Trader Lesson 4
Go into the weekend a winner. Trade smaller on Friday, tighten your leverage, and never try to claw the week back on the last day.
TARGET REACHED… THE BATTLE PLAN IS NULL AND VOID
Here is the honest read for tonight. There are no high probability Battle Plan entries. A couple of trade ideas are mapped, yes, but the pullback to get into either one never came, and price has already reached the Bull Bear Line target.
That matters. A Battle Plan trade is null and void once target is reached. The words were meant to be on the plan and got left off, so hear it clearly here… when the destination is hit, those planned entries are done. You can still watch how price behaves around them, but you are no longer trading a fresh high probability setup. From here it is reading the chart live off years of experience, and looking to reclaim the Bull Bear Line to reach the expected range.
Trader Lesson 5
Once target is reached, the Battle Plan trade is null and void. Do not force an entry that already did its job… watch the level, do not chase it.
Trader Lesson 6
Saying you have no high probability entry IS the plan. Stand Down beats a forced trade. Green Over Greed.
THE OLD SCHOOL CHART EXERCISE
A slow Friday is not dead time. It is training time. Once or twice a year George recommends this one, so if you have the weekend, do it. Go old school with your chart and study your own trades on paper.
- Build a print template: Right click your chart, open Settings, and make a black and white template. Change the body, borders, wick, and canvas colors to a clean white background.
- Fix the Strong Levels: Some Strong Levels render white on that background, so turn them on and change their color to black so they print.
- Zoom and section it: Print the sections you care about. Keep the vertical and horizontal scale the same across prints so the pieces line up.
- Get out the scissors: Cut the sections, tape them together, and sit down with a pencil and a ruler.
- Trade it on paper: Pretend you got long at a level. Ask where you could have held the runner, where your stop stays behind the protection layers, and how the whole section would have played.
Trader Lesson 7
Print your chart, grab a pencil, and re-trade the day by hand. Marking up a black and white chart on paper teaches your eye what a screen glosses over.
THE WEEK AHEAD… VOLATILITY IS LOADED
Today is quiet. Unemployment, revised consumer sentiment and expectations. But next week is a full data slate, so plan your energy now.
| Day | Event | Significance |
|---|---|---|
| Today (Fri) | Unemployment, revised sentiment and expectations | Light data, Friday rules in effect… manage the week you already won. |
| Next week | JOLTS | Job openings read that can move the tape on the release. |
| Next week | ADP | Private payrolls print, an early tell into the jobs picture. |
| Next week | Unemployment claims | Weekly labor read, watch for a volatility spike. |
| Next week | Non-farm payrolls | The big one… a nice week of volatility is in store. |
Feature of the day… Trader Games run again this weekend with a new type of competition. Head to the site, click Trader Games, and add yourself. You need to be at least a free Foundations member. There is a classics chart and an inspection format. This one scores you on how you actually trade it and the disciplined score you receive, not just points earned.
"The value of Zoom cannot be subtly calculated on points earned. Sometimes it's points saved."
COMMON QUESTIONS FOR ES FUTURES TRADERS
What are Friday rules in futures trading?
A: Friday rules are a discipline posture for the last session of the week. Go into the weekend a winner… trade smaller, tighten your daily stop limit and leverage settings, and never try to win back the week on Friday. One option is to take only a small percentage of the week's profits as your Friday risk.
Why should you never short a short covering rally?
A: A short covering rally is fueled by trapped shorts buying to close, which pushes price up hard. Fighting that with a fresh short means standing in front of forced buyers. When the Battle Plan maps long only, every pullback is an entry and shorts are the wrong side of the tape.
How do you hold a runner in ES futures without getting stopped out?
A: You hold a runner behind protection layers, meaning Strong Levels stacked beneath your entry. In this session the stop sat five points under the prior RTH low, behind roughly three Strong Levels. Price has to break through that wall to take you out, which keeps you in the move through normal pullbacks.
What is the Bull Bear Line?
A: The Bull Bear Line is the key dividing level between bullish and bearish bias. It served as the obvious upside target this week. Once price tagged it for 144 points, the focus shifted to whether price can reclaim it and push into the expected range.
What does it mean when a Battle Plan trade is null and void?
A: A Battle Plan entry becomes null and void once its target is reached. The mapped trade already did its job, so a fresh entry there is no longer a high probability setup. You can watch how price behaves around the level, but you do not chase a trade that has already paid.
What is a Strong Level and why does it matter for stops?
A: A Strong Level is a high-conviction structural price level where the market tends to react. Traders use them as protection layers… by placing a stop behind several Strong Levels, you give a runner room to work while requiring the market to break real structure before it takes you out.
How do you do the old school chart review exercise?
A: Build a black and white print template in your chart settings, turn on your Strong Levels and set them to black so they print, then print the sections you want at a consistent scale. Cut and tape the pieces, then use a pencil and ruler to re-trade the day by hand and study where you could have held or exited.
What should you do on a slow trading day with no high probability setups?
A: Stand Down and treat it as training time. If there are no high probability entries, say so and do not force a trade. Use the quiet to journal, run the chart review exercise, or work the next badge. Green Over Greed protects both your capital and your mindset.
Do you have to trade FOMC?
A: No one has to trade FOMC. It is optional and best left to those who want the risk. Earlier this week the brave who traded it off a mapped level caught a 100-pointer, but skipping it entirely is a completely valid, disciplined choice.
Helping Futures Traders Via Our Core Strategy Academy Training Program and Futures Trading Group – The Best Emini Group IMHO.
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