AM Briefing #838 — Moderate Your Expectations Into OPEX Friday
AM BRIEFING
ES CHART | KEY LEVELS | SETUPS
ES Technical Analysis — AM Briefing 838 Timeline
Friday August 21, 2026
| TIME | CHAPTER |
|---|---|
| 0:00 | Welcome ES MES Futures Traders |
| 0:22 | Together We Trade Better Opening the AM Briefing and this week's scripture. Getting prepared to train. |
| 0:49 | News Drivers: OPEX Friday Today is OPEX Friday, Friday rules on steroids. What does your trading plan say about trading OPEX and the day before it? |
| 1:16 | Tip of the Day: Moderate Expectations The day before OPEX and OPEX itself lead to frustrating price action. Moderate your expectations and adjust your plan for the environment. |
| 1:48 | Track These Days in Your Journal Tag the day before OPEX and OPEX as their own categories so you can track your real performance on them over time. |
| 1:54 | The Third Weekend Rule On the third week of each month, consider taking Thursday and Friday off for a four-day weekend. |
| 2:53 | August Stinks, Stay Consistent August is historically weak. Expect wider break-evens and few moves over 30 points. Monday was the rare 70 and 100 pointer. |
| 3:37 | Proper Stops Beat Tight Stops An improper stop gets you out then price runs your way. Trade smaller to afford the correct stop rather than shrinking it. |
| 4:22 | Slow Tape Is Training Time Perfect training in a slow market builds the habits that cash in when fall delivers 10, 20 and 30 pointers. Keep your powder dry. |
| 4:47 | Feature of the Day: Trade Buddy Input your daily profit and loss targets in the Trade Buddy Chrome extension. It alerts you when you hit target, like the 40 points captured yesterday. |
| 5:16 | Fewer, Higher Quality Trades Risk-first, laser-tight entries with the 3-Contract System and a held lotto runner for the big limbs, like Monday's 70 to 100 point short. |
| 6:23 | The Week in Review Zooming out on the week. Monday's short paid 30, 70 or 100 points, reclaim longs paid, and Thursday's Battle Plan long ran 82 to BP3 for 20 points. |
| 8:10 | Weekly Scoreboard Battle Plan 170 points if held to every target, Zoom around 75, Core Strategy 55 with less level development this week. |
| 8:31 | YouTube Channel Membership The easiest way to check us out right now. Join through the browser at youtube.com and click the join button. |
| 8:43 | Overnight: Battle Plan 3 Battle Plan 3 activated off the strong level. Snap out of the back-and-forth for a bounce that paid 18 points into the next strong level. |
| 9:05 | SITREP Report and Preferred Trade A special email went out with the preferred trade of the week. Free subscribers get it via the SITREP report at microstrader.com. |
| 9:47 | Battle Plan 3 Mapping and Strong Range Walking the strong range, the London reclaim, and where we start looking for longs targeting the next strong level. |
| 11:36 | Members Dismissed Full members are dismissed until the live stream 15 minutes before the open. Stay for the membership walkthrough if you want to join. |
| 11:49 | Membership Options Walkthrough The free paths, the $50 YouTube channel membership, the $7 Battle Plan trial, the $57 ultimate trial, and full membership with Discord. |
| 15:31 | Sign Off See my traders live in 15 minutes. Have a great training day and remember, it is OPEX Friday. |
MES MICROS TRADE PLAN
Moderate Your Expectations Into OPEX Friday
Posted: Friday August 21, 2026
Today is OPEX Friday… Friday rules on steroids. Yesterday was the day before OPEX. Both are days to slow down and think hard before you click. The heart of this ES futures morning briefing is one word… moderate. Moderate your expectations, track these calendar days separately, and let the slow August tape build the habits that pay when fall delivers. Battle Plan 3 activated overnight off the strong level for 18 points into the next level, and the week's best trade was Monday's short that ran 30, 70, then 100 points depending on your account. You keep showing up, you map your highest probability trades, and you take them perfect… even when you are bored to tears.
OPEX FRIDAY AND THE DAY BEFORE… TRACK THEM AS THEIR OWN THING
Ask yourself a simple question. What does your trading plan say about trading OPEX Friday? And what does it say about the day before option expiration? Most traders have no answer. That is the problem.
George made the call in the group yesterday… this is the day before OPEX, moderate your expectations. The way price is supposed to behave on days like this leads to nothing but extreme frustration if you fight it. Two trainers posted public journal entries on the price action, the success and the failure of it, and neither one flagged that it was the day before OPEX. That context matters.
Your journaling software should tag these days automatically… day before OPEX, and OPEX itself. Then you can track your performance on those specific days over time. You may find they are quietly draining your account.
Trader Lesson 1
Tag the day before OPEX and OPEX itself as their own categories in your journal, then track your results on them. If the data says they hurt you, either adjust your plan for that environment or Stand Down.
THE THIRD WEEKEND RULE
Here is a rhythm worth building into your calendar. On the third week of each month, consider taking Thursday and Friday off. That gives you Saturday, Sunday, and a four-day weekend… once a month.
These are not automatic no-trade days. They really are optional. If you choose to trade them, just understand the environment you are stepping into and adjust your Battle Plan accordingly. Ignoring that it is the day before OPEX is erroneous. Respect the calendar and it stops surprising you.
Trader Lesson 2
On the third week of each month, put Thursday and Friday on the table as days off. A four-day weekend once a month protects your mindset and keeps you out of the choppiest tape.
AUGUST STINKS… STAY CONSISTENT ANYWAY
August is a historically weak month for clean trends, and August 2026 is no different. You have to expect it. When you expect it, it stops rattling you.
Here is what the environment looks like right now:
- Wider break-evens: Your number of break-even trades runs larger than normal.
- Small results, stretched: Your small positives and small negatives run higher too.
- Big moves are rare birds: More than 30 points in a session is uncommon this month. Monday gave a 70-pointer, and a 100-pointer if you held overnight… but only once.
None of that changes the job. You keep showing up. You map out your highest probability trades, that is the Battle Plan. You take them perfect, you never let the chart hurt you, and you use proper leverage. The market deals a fresh hand every single session. Play each one clean, and when your board is done, close up.
Trader Lesson 3
August delivers wider break-evens and fewer big moves… expect it and it stops surprising you. The system does not change because the calendar did. You keep mapping and you keep showing up.
PROPER STOPS BEAT TIGHT STOPS
Nothing is worse than placing an improper stop. It gets you out… and then price runs your direction. You sit there thinking, my stop should have been two points bigger.
The fix is not a tighter leash. The fix is right-sizing. Maybe you trade smaller so you can afford the proper stop loss. That is a real position sizing decision, and it is exactly what the 3-Contract System is built to solve. Risk first. Proper leverage. Proper stops.
Trader Lesson 4
Set your stop where the structure demands, not where your account feels comfortable. If the proper stop is too big for your size, trade smaller… never shrink the stop to fit the trade.
SLOW TAPE IS TRAINING TIME
Perfect training in a slow market builds the exact habits that cash in later. When fall arrives and the 10-pointers, 20-pointers, and 30-pointers start stacking up, you will not believe the difference. The trader who drilled the process in August is ready. The one who forced trades is not.
So keep your powder dry. The system stays the same in every season:
- Fewer, higher-quality trades: Pre-planned, well-thought-out, risk-first. The Battle Plan.
- Laser-tight entries: The 3-Contract System, with a lotto runner held to capture the big limbs like Monday's short.
- Journal every rep: Trade Buddy, our Chrome extension and journaling tool. Input your daily profit target and loss target… when you hit the target, it pops up on screen. George captured 40 points yesterday and the profit target alert fired.
- Refine and review: Journal your progress, refine your Battle Plan, analyze your volume profile, and scrutinize your performance. Same process, every day.
Your process does not change because it is August. Patience… becoming the trader you were meant to be. That is the system.
Trader Lesson 5
A slow market is where you drill the habits that pay in the fast one. Journal the reps, refine the plan, keep the powder dry… the practice you bank now cashes in when the trends return.
THE WEEK IN REVIEW… AND WHAT HAPPENED OVERNIGHT
On Fridays we zoom out. How did we trade the whole week? Here is the roadmap.
- Monday's short: Outlined live on Zoom and YouTube. You could have been positionally short with about a 4-point stop if you were willing to take it. That paid 30 points per contract at the end of the day, up to the full 70 points at the aggressive mapping, and if you held the lotto runner you had a chance to add and complete the full 100-point swing.
- The reclaim longs: After the flush, we looked for longs to reclaim above the level and follow through. One beautiful long popped for a 50-pointer, and early-session longs paid while we were live.
- Thursday's Battle Plan long: Live because of where price was, at a beautiful Battle Plan level with clean follow-through. Long from 82 to Battle Plan 3 gave you a 20-pointer. Nice follow-through, but it did not extend into another 100-pointer.
The scoreboard this week if you could have held every Battle Plan level to target (nobody catches them all):
| Approach | Points |
|---|---|
| Battle Plan | 170 |
| Zoom / Live Room | ~75 |
| Core Strategy | ~55 |
Core Strategy ran a little smaller this week at 55… we are just not getting the level development it needs right now. That is August.
Overnight: Battle Plan 3 activated. You used the strong level to aid the entry and waited for a snap out of the back-and-forth price action as your initial trade location. That bounce paid 18 points into the next strong level… a clean tag right off the level. Once price reclaimed the strong level, we were looking for longs, targeting the next strong level, and a second power move pushed back in for another long opportunity. We map where we want to go long, we map where we want to go short. We are long-focused… but the best trade of the week was the short.
"Perfect training in a slow market builds the exact habits that cash in… the market delivers a fresh hand every single session, so play each one clean."
COMMON QUESTIONS FOR ES FUTURES TRADERS
What is OPEX Friday and why does it change how I trade?
A: OPEX is Options Expiration, when large batches of options contracts expire. On expiration Friday, price often behaves erratically as positions are unwound and hedged, which George calls Friday rules on steroids. The practical takeaway is to moderate your expectations, expect messier price action, and adjust your ES futures morning briefing plan for that environment rather than trading it like a normal trend day.
Should I trade the day before option expiration?
A: It is a day to think twice about. The session before OPEX often produces frustrating, low-follow-through price action. It is not an automatic no-trade day, but if you trade it you should know the environment and adjust your Battle Plan, and George suggests tracking your results on these specific days to see if they actually pay you.
How do I track my performance on OPEX and pre-OPEX days?
A: Use journaling software that tags calendar events automatically, so the day before OPEX and OPEX itself get labeled for you. Over time you build a record of exactly how you perform on those days. If the data shows they drain your account, you have an objective reason to Stand Down or trade them smaller.
Why is August such a hard month to trade ES futures?
A: August is historically thin on clean, developed trends. That means more break-even trades, small wins and small losses that stretch out, and very few moves larger than 30 points in a session. The fix is not to force action… it is to expect the slow tape, keep your process identical, and drill your habits for the fall.
What is the 3-Contract System and how does it manage a runner?
A: The 3-Contract System is Micros Trader's core position sizing framework. You take laser-tight, risk-first entries and scale out across contracts, while holding one as a lotto runner to capture the big extended move. Monday's short is the model… it paid 30 points at first target, up to 70 at the aggressive mapping, and 100 if you held the runner and added.
How should I set my stop loss in futures?
A: Set the stop where the structure requires it, not where your account feels comfortable. An improper, too-tight stop gets you out right before price runs your way. If the correct stop is too large for your current size, trade smaller so you can afford it… never shrink the stop to fit the position.
What is a Strong Level and how do I use it for entry?
A: A Strong Level is a high-conviction price level mapped in advance on the Battle Plan. You use it to aid entry by waiting for price to snap out of choppy back-and-forth action at the level, giving you a defined trade location. Overnight, Battle Plan 3 activated at a strong level and the bounce paid 18 points into the next strong level.
What does a reclaim mean and why does it signal longs?
A: A reclaim is when price pushes back above a strong level it had been trading beneath and holds there. After spending many hours under a level, an explosive move back over the top signals strength, and that is where we start looking for longs, targeting the next strong level. Sometimes the move is so strong you never get a clean retest, so you use Core Strategy or wait for the mapping.
What is the Battle Plan?
A: The Battle Plan is Micros Trader's nightly ES trade plan… a set of tiered, pre-mapped levels (BP1 through BP8, the count varies by day) marking the highest probability trades for the session. It comes with a daily newsletter, TradingView indicators, and the Battle Plan Buddy Chrome extension, and it is designed to keep you taking fewer, higher-quality, risk-first trades.
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